Team USA has owned the Olympic swimming pool — is that about to change in Paris?

Follow our Olympics coverage in the lead-up to the Paris Games.

For many years across Olympic swimming venues, the sound of “The Star-Spangled Banner” was ubiquitous.

From the 1992 Games in Barcelona through the pandemic-delayed 2021 Games in Tokyo, the United States swim team won more gold medals than any of its peers. Its anthem played, over and over again, as the Americans received their gold medals atop the podium. The last time Team USA did not win the most golds at a single Olympics was in 1988, when it finished second to East Germany. None of the swimmers on the current roster were alive then.

U.S. swimmers have won the overall medal count and the gold medal count so often over the years that it almost has been taken for granted. Of course, it helps that Michael Phelps won 23 alone over four Olympics, but it wasn’t just him. The Americans were often the best in the world in their best events, and they often cleaned up in relays as well.

Now, that dominance is far from certain. Heading into the Paris Games, the Australians will be favored to win the most gold medals in the pool. The Aussies topped the Americans a year ago at the world championships in Fukuoka, Japan, winning 13 gold medals to the Americans’ seven. Though Team USA won the overall medal count (38 to 25), its haul’s hue was less golden than usual.

Paris could be the same. It’s a possibility the Americans are not shying away from and one they are determined to avoid.

“Historically, the U.S. has done the best job of any country in the world of being better and performing at a higher level,” U.S. head women’s coach Todd DeSorbo said. “Certainly, there are some events for both genders where we’ve got a significant amount of ground to make up, but I’m confident in the motivation and excitement and commitment of everybody — men and women — on the team that are prepared to do that and do some pretty special things.”

Count Australian star Cate Campbell among those hoping for the opposite. She enjoyed what she heard at worlds — or rather, what she didn’t.

“Australia coming out on top is one thing, but it is just so much sweeter beating America,” Campbell told Australia’s Channel 9 last August. “There were a couple of nights, particularly the first night of competition, where we did not have to hear ‘The Star-Spangled Banner’ ring out through the stadium, and I cannot tell you how happy that made me.

“If I (ever) hear that song again, it will be too soon.”

It was the first time since 2001 that the U.S. did not take home the most gold medals at a world championship meet. Of the nine swimmers who won multiple individual gold medals, Katie Ledecky was the only American swimmer to do so. “The world is getting better,” Bob Bowman, the U.S. men’s head coach at worlds, told reporters in Japan. The Aussies set five world records at that meet alone. Neither seven-time Olympic gold medalist Caeleb Dressel nor two-time gold medalist Simone Manuel competed in Japan, and both will swim in Paris.

Campbell failed to qualify for Paris, but her comments have reverberated loudly — including one that called the Americans “sore losers” for celebrating the most overall medals when the Aussies nearly doubled their tally of gold. It struck a nerve with Phelps, who served as a commentator for NBC during the U.S. trials last month. He said if a competitor spoke like that about him, he’d “make them eat every word they just said about me” and hoped the Americans would use the clip as motivation.

“Well, the good news is the Olympics will be here shortly, and we’ll be able to see what the results are,” Phelps said.

For the first time in a long time, it’s hard to know what to expect. Ledecky, a seven-time Olympic gold medalist, will be favored to win gold in the 800-meter and 1,500-meter freestyle events. Beyond that, the races are too competitive to confidently predict. And Ledecky’s rival, Australian Ariarne Titmus, will be favored to win the 400-meter freestyle, with fellow Aussie Mollie O’Callaghan the headliner for the 100-meter and 200-meter freestyle events.

Dressel, the Americans’ star sprinter, will have a chance to defend his gold medals from Tokyo in the 50-meter freestyle and 100-meter butterfly. He looked strong at trials, but he’s still amid a comeback to the sport after an eight-month break from swimming from mid-2022 to early 2023. (At trials, he failed to qualify for the 100-meter freestyle in Paris as an individual event, so he will not get to defend his gold.) Bobby Finke will be favored to win the 1,500-meter freestyle, and Ryan Murphy will be expected to contend in both backstroke events. But overall, the three aren’t obvious locks to repeat their Tokyo success.

Caeleb Dressel returns as the face of the U.S. men’s team, with a chance to defend his gold medals in the 50-meter freestyle and 100-meter butterfly. (Sarah Stier / Getty Images)

Gretchen Walsh, Regan Smith and Kate Douglass will headline the women’s team alongside Ledecky, but the trio brings far less Olympics experience than she does. Walsh (100 fly) and Smith (100 back) set world records at trials and will be in contention in Paris in their respective events, but this will be Walsh’s first Games, and Smith took home two silvers (200 fly, medley relay) and one bronze (100 back) in Tokyo. Those events are loaded, too. Australian Kaylee McKeown will be tough to beat in both backstroke events, and Canadians Maggie Mac Neil and Summer McIntosh will be top contenders in the 100 fly, as will China’s Zhang Yufei.

Douglass took bronze in the 200-meter individual medley in Tokyo, though she will be swimming a more comprehensive program after qualifying to swim individually in the 200 fly and 200 IM at trials.  (She also qualified in the 100-meter freestyle but later dropped it.) Though she set multiple championship records at trials, she faces a tough road ahead with McIntosh, the Canadian phenom, and McKeown in the 200 IM (and her teammate Alex Walsh, too).

Of the biggest names on Team USA, many are likely to medal at the Games, though it might not be gold. Two-time gold medalist breaststroker Lilly King, versatile distance swimmer Katie Grimes and male breaststrokers Nic Fink and Matt Fallon could all medal. So could Carson Foster, though he likely won’t take gold in either IM race because of the heavily favored Frenchman, Léon Marchand.

Relays will also be extremely competitive. Team USA will be favored in the men’s 4×100-meter freestyle relay and the women’s medley relay, but the American women lag behind the Aussies in both freestyle relays, and the men will face stiff competition from China in the men’s medley and Great Britain in the 4×200-meter freestyle relay. The Brits took home gold in that relay in Tokyo for the first time. It was the first time the U.S. (men or women) failed to medal in an Olympic relay event.

But what is perhaps most glaring is that the complexion of the team is fairly different from what it was even just two Games ago, with Phelps and Ryan Lochte headlining the roster in Rio de Janeiro alongside Ledecky in peak form and a schedule that stretched from the 200 free through the 800 free. Even with Ledecky and Dressel headed to Paris, this roster doesn’t have the same star power American swimming typically does, particularly on the men’s side. Dressel will swim multiple events, but he’s long been an enigma and not someone who wants the world to know every little thing about himself. Phelps and Lochte were endlessly captivating figures, and they were on TV nearly every day of the Games in their heyday because of the breadth of their events.

Still, USA Swimming president and CEO Tim Hinchey III has said the organization’s goal is to win the total medal count and the gold medal count. But is that attainable? The Americans will find out soon enough.

“I thought we were in a good place relative to the rest of the world prior to trials, and coming out of trials, I think we were in even a better place,” DeSorbo said. “We’re just ready to get to camp (in Croatia), get to Paris and let the Games begin.”

GO DEEPER

U.S. Olympic swim trials takeaways: Caeleb Dressel is back, Katie Ledecky is still here

(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; photos of Katie Ledecky and Caeleb Dressel: Tom Pennington and Al Bello / Getty Images)