Santa Anita Derby appears to be a victim of its own success

As horse racing enters its remaining weekend of main Kentucky Derby prep races, all eyes are on the Santa Anita Derby, with a glance to each the standard and amount of the sphere. It appears the race has turn into a sufferer of its personal success.

There are two statistics that appear to be in battle however are inexorably intertwined. Of the eight remaining win-and-you’re-in Kentucky Derby preps, the Santa Anita Derby, with six starters, stands out with the fewest variety of entrants. The following lowest quantity is eight in Saturday’s Wooden Memorial at Aqueduct. That’s a unfavourable.

But the race additionally stands out for sending the horse that was pronounced the winner on race day in Louisville in 5 of the ten earlier years. That’s a constructive.

“Area sizes in stakes are actually completely different than area sizes up and down the cardboard,” former longtime Santa Anita govt Alan Balch mentioned. “One of many biggest Santa Anita Handicaps ever (1988) had 4 horses in it. And I bear in mind a number of the huge photographs on our board have been horrified by this and [racing secretary] Mr. [Frank] Kilroe telling me they only don’t perceive, you’ve obtained Alysheba, Ferdinand, Tremendous Diamond and Decide Angelucci. Who’s going to hook up with that group?”

Alysheba received the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, Ferdinand was one other former Kentucky Derby winner, Tremendous Diamond was a winner of eight of his final 11 races, and Decide Angelucci a a number of stakes winner coming off a win within the San Antonio. Temperate Sil, who didn’t have these credentials, scratched earlier than racing that day, proving the speculation.

Balch, govt director of the California Thoroughbred Trainers, sees the identical components in play immediately.

“You may have considerably the same state of affairs with the Santa Anita Derby the place you have got monsters in right here,” he mentioned. “And this race has produced a number of horses who’ve gone on to the Kentucky Derby and received the Derby, even when they didn’t win the Santa Anita Derby, like Ferdinand” in 1986.

Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby, a part of a 12-race, seven-stakes card, has two “monsters” and one monster in ready.

Messier is the even-money favourite by advantage of successful the Robert B. Lewis Stakes by 15 lengths. He hasn’t raced since Feb. 6 and can be making his first begin for Tim Yakteen after being moved from Bob Baffert’s barn in order that the colt might earn Kentucky Derby qualifying factors. Baffert is serving a 90-day suspension as the results of Medina Spirit’s constructive take a look at for an anti-inflammatory that’s not authorized on race day. John Velazquez will journey Messier.

The 6-5 second alternative is Forbidden Kingdom for coach Richard Mandella and jockey Juan Hernandez. He received his final race, the San Felipe Stakes, by 5¾ lengths.

Tabia, at 4-1, is the unknown issue. He additionally moved to the Yakteen barn from the Baffert barn. The $1.7-million buy, purchased by Medina Spirit proprietor Amr Zedan, has run just one race, a maiden particular he received by 7½ lengths. Mike Smith picks up the journey from Velazquez. First place is value 100 factors, second is 40 factors and third is 20. Twenty factors is probably not sufficient to get into the Kentucky Derby except a number of horses drop out.

Yakteen has a 3rd horse within the race, Armagnac (20-1), who additionally came to visit from Baffert. The remaining two horses are skilled by Doug O’Neill, Glad Jack (20-1) and Win the Day (20-1).

The Santa Anita Derby would be the sixth race. The lodging was made in order that it will be a part of a nationwide NBC telecast that additionally contains the Wooden and Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.

Regardless of his short-term absence, Baffert stays a dominant pressure in shaping Southern California racing and area sizes in main stakes races.

“There may be undoubtedly a Bob Baffert issue,” mentioned Gary Fenton, chairman of the Thoroughbred Homeowners of California. “He’s at all times had a powerful string of 3-year-olds and a few at all times find yourself within the Santa Anita Derby. He’s truly obtained so many, he spreads them round as a result of we’re on an island. If you’re on the Derby path, and you aren’t an island, you have got a bunch of various decisions. That features California, but when you recognize Bob goes to be there [with one of his best horses], it components into your pondering and also you go elsewhere.”

Chris Merz, Santa Anita’s director of racing, illustrated what the absence of a powerful Baffert horse can imply and why area sizes are affected by his presence.

In 2017, “after I was stakes coordinator and Mastery was presupposed to be the following coming of Secretariat,” he mentioned, racing secretary “Rick Hammerle and I knew if that horse ran within the Santa Anita Derby, we might be fortunate to get 5 horses. However, he was damage after the San Felipe and the Santa Anita Derby was a 13-horse area.”

California is named an island as a result of it isn’t simple to ship a horse to a different main monitor. If you’re on the East Coast, you’ll be able to simply van horses up and down the seaboard. If you’re in California, it nearly at all times entails a aircraft, which is one other situation.

Tex Sutton Equine Air Transportation has been the key provider of horses however final spring wanted a brand new lease on a devoted transport aircraft and FAA approval. It’s anticipated to renew its journey this summer season. Within the meantime, horses have been booked on FedEx planes, which is costlier and fewer handy.

“Tex Sutton is extra versatile for timing,” Merz mentioned. “They modify planes to make them extra horse pleasant. It’s powerful with FedEx when you’ve got a very high-strung horse as a result of you’ll be able to’t ship your groom on that aircraft. We’ve got misplaced horses coming into our stakes as a result of they felt it will be too excessive danger with out their groom on the aircraft. With Tex Sutton you need to use your groom.”

There may be little query the winner of Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby can be marked as the favourite to win the Kentucky Derby and there can be a aircraft journey concerned.