Roundtable: Here’s what UCLA and USC need to do to earn NCAA tournament success

Will UCLA and USC name their NCAA match runs a hit?

Deputy sports activities editor Iliana Limón Romero moderated a roundtable that includes faculty writers Ben Bolch, Ryan Kartje, J. Brady McCollough and Thuc Nhi Nguyen, throughout which the group mentioned how the choice committee handled the Bruins and Trojans, keys to success, Remaining 4 picks and extra.

What do you consider USC’s and UCLA’s seeding and the way far do you assume they’re able to going?

Bolch: I believe USC bought the worst of it given the record-setting common season — actually, the Trojans in all probability needs to be a No. 5 seed — however now there’s the possibility to show all people unsuitable with a stirring run. I believe the Trojans could have their one shining second, beating second-seeded Auburn within the second spherical, earlier than happening in opposition to Wisconsin within the Candy 16. UCLA was clearly seeded one spot too low given the metrics and the old school eye check, which is important as a result of it means the Bruins must play top-seeded Baylor within the Candy 16, assuming neither crew is upset beforehand. On the danger of being accused of beat author’s bias, I believe UCLA emerges from the East with an opportunity to win all of it — if the Bruins can win a Remaining 4 rematch in opposition to Gonzaga.

Kartje: A No. 7 seed might sound unexpectedly low for a significant convention crew that received a school-record 26 video games this season. However the Trojans misplaced a whole lot of steam over the previous two weeks, dropping three of their final 4 video games. As Andy Enfield was fast to level out Sunday, these losses got here in opposition to UCLA and Arizona, two groups able to successful all of it. Nonetheless, USC hasn’t proven sufficient in opposition to high groups to warrant extra confidence than it obtained from the committee. It has simply two wins over match groups, in spite of everything. UCLA has much more reputable complaints, for my part — the fourth-seeded Bruins satisfied me in Vegas they’re able to returning to the Remaining 4. For USC, the trail again to the Elite Eight is a brutal one. The primary-round matchup with Miami is a coin flip, however beating Auburn and star freshman Jabari Smith is a tall order. I’d be shocked to see the Trojans get to the second weekend.

McCollough: In response to Ken Pomeroy’s effectivity metrics, the Bruins are worthy of a low 2 seed. That might be a stretch given their efficiency this season, however there’s actually an argument they may have been a 3. However by getting the fourth No. 1 seed, Baylor, UCLA theoretically will get a little bit of a break. The Bears should not taking part in their greatest coming into the match and are nonetheless wounded from two key accidents. The defending nationwide champs are weak, so total I believe the Bruins ought to be ok with the place they sit. As for USC, the Trojans have struggled down the stretch and didn’t have a powerful power of schedule, so the No. 7 seed appears about proper. I like UCLA’s possibilities to get to the Elite Eight and assume they’ll have a shot at back-to-back Remaining Fours. I may see USC beating Miami, however Auburn has an excessive amount of offensive firepower for the Trojans to maintain up within the spherical of 32.

Nguyen: UCLA is worthy of a No. 3 seed, no less than giving the Bruins an opportunity to remain considerably native in San Diego. However getting to remain out of Gonzaga’s means till the Remaining 4 is a superb comfort prize. Perhaps it’s simply wishful considering as a result of I desire a rematch of final yr, however I anticipate UCLA will return to the Remaining 4 to fulfill Gonzaga. Repeating final yr’s run to the Elite Eight doesn’t look simple for seventh-seeded USC, although, with the lengthy journey and difficult draw. The choice committee wasn’t impressed with USC’s school-record 26 wins, lots of which got here shut in opposition to even struggling groups. After watching the Trojans barely get by Washington within the Pac-12 match, I don’t see how they do a lot injury within the NCAA match.

What would a profitable NCAA match appear to be for USC and UCLA?

Bolch: Some have stated it will be thought of a disappointing season for the Bruins in the event that they don’t make it again to the Remaining 4 with all people again from their NCAA match run a yr in the past. I disagree. There’s too many variables and an excessive amount of craziness this time of yr to imagine something like that. UCLA does must make it to the second weekend, nevertheless, given its expertise, postseason expertise and training. For USC, every thing hinges on that second-round sport in opposition to heavy favourite Auburn. Win that and the Trojans would possibly begin soliciting designs for an Andy Enfield statue outdoors the Galen Middle.

Kartje: USC misplaced a top-three decide and certain NBA rookie of the yr from final yr’s Elite Eight squad and nonetheless managed to win 26 video games this season. That, in itself, marks a profitable marketing campaign for Andy Enfield so far as I’m involved. However now that the Trojans are again within the match in consecutive years for the primary time since 2016, no less than one victory looks like a very honest expectation. Get previous Auburn within the second spherical after which we’re actually cooking with gasoline. Anticipating any crew to make it to consecutive Remaining Fours, in the meantime, might be unreasonable. However for UCLA, you need to assume something in need of the Candy 16 could be a significant disappointment.

McCollough: USC spent a lot of the season hovering across the high 16 within the polls. Nonetheless, making the second weekend for the second straight yr could be an enormous success for Andy Enfield’s program. Advancing previous Miami needs to be thought of a hit too. The query is a bit more difficult for UCLA. Johnny Juzang got here again with nationwide championship aspirations, and the Bruins added switch large man Myles Johnson and five-star freshman Peyton Watson to the combo. UCLA must make the Elite Eight to contemplate this match a hit, however a loss there’ll nonetheless go away unrealized expectations for a lot of.

Nguyen: Attending to the second weekend and upsetting Auburn within the course of could be a nice approach to cap this season for this USC crew. They shouldn’t rejoice with one other non-championship championship banner, however a run to the Candy 16 whereas setting a college report in wins after dropping a participant of Evan Mobley’s stature could be a hit. Contemplating the unforgiving nature of the one-and-done match, it feels unreasonable to anticipate a Remaining 4-or-bust outcome for the Bruins. Definitely they’ve the expertise and expertise, but it surely additionally takes somewhat little bit of luck. They have been on the appropriate aspect of virtually each fortunate break final yr to make that miraculous run from First 4 to Remaining 4, and if the percentages aren’t of their favor for a key play, it could possibly’t spoil a whole season. An Elite Eight look needs to be sufficient to earn the stamp of success, however it’s going to probably nonetheless go away Bruin followers upset.

Which groups do USC and UCLA need upset most to assist their path?

Bolch: Baylor is horrifying however not as horrifying as final season, when it may have crushed Usain Bolt and Carl Lewis in a monitor meet. The crew that ought to scare the Bruins probably the most on the way in which to a different Remaining 4 is Kentucky, which options electrical guard play and a postseason pedigree a lot richer than UCLA’s since John Wood retired (with a win over the Wildcats). Which means the Bruins ought to root for Murray State — coach Mick Cronin’s old style — to tug an upset particular within the second spherical to knock out Kentucky.

Kartje: You’ll discover no greater Jacksonville State followers outdoors of Florida than Andy Enfield and USC. If the Gamecocks are in some way capable of knock off Auburn, then the bracket would all of a sudden open just like the Purple Sea for the Trojans. However I wouldn’t maintain my breath. Jacksonville State solely finds itself within the discipline as a result of an NCAA rule that saved Atlantic Solar match champion Bellarmine, which only recently jumped to Division I, out of the postseason. Their greatest win this season got here in opposition to Liberty. Sufficient stated.

McCollough: Clearly, the Bruins would love North Carolina or Marquette to knock off Baylor, however I believe the larger impediment to a visit to New Orleans is No. 2 seed Kentucky, which looms within the Elite Eight. The Wildcats, that includes monstrous large man Oscar Tshiebwe, haven’t been to the Remaining 4 since 2015, so John Calipari’s program is due. UCLA followers needs to be monitoring that aspect of the bracket carefully. The Trojans ought to positively be hoping that Jacksonville State pulls the large upset over Auburn.

Nguyen: If Jacksonville State can do the onerous work for USC and knock off Auburn, then the Trojans may have an opportunity to race by means of the Midwest Area. And whereas No. 1 seed Baylor might appear to be the highest canine within the East, I agree with Ben and Brady that the Bruins needs to be most weary of Kentucky and would love some assist from their mates throughout the bracket to knock the Wildcats out early.

Who’s the X-factor for USC and UCLA?

Bolch: Myles Johnson has emerged as a defensive power over the previous couple of weeks since snagging extra taking part in time from Cody Riley, so Johnson’s contributions on that finish needs to be a given except he finds himself in foul bother. The participant UCLA must step up most is guard David Singleton, who has gone scoreless in 4 consecutive video games whereas taking just one shot.

Kartje: Isaiah Mobley hit his stride this time final season to raise USC to a different stage, and if it has any hope of advancing once more this season, he’s going to have to seek out that stride once more very quickly. The Trojans’ main scorer hasn’t at all times seemed like himself over the previous two weeks, and his periodic struggles have coincided with a slumping USC offense. Boogie Ellis carried the Trojans on his again in the course of the Pac-12 match, however he can’t do it alone. With out a clear star able to taking up in crunch time, USC wants some mixture of Mobley, Ellis and Drew Peterson all taking part in at their greatest to maintain the offense afloat. Mobley’s versatility makes him the potential centerpiece of that trio, particularly if he can begin hitting from three-point vary once more.

McCollough: The Trojans want Boogie Ellis to supply a scoring punch and be assertive offensively to have an opportunity of creating a run. The Bruins will want Cody Riley’s greatest to anchor their efficiency within the paint and permit their perimeter gamers to flourish. Riley was so key to what they have been capable of do final season and has to step up this match.

Nguyen: Boogie Ellis delivered on offense within the Pac-12 match with 54 factors in two video games, however the place have been Isaiah Mobley and Drew Peterson? Mobley scored 9 factors in every sport whereas lacking all seven of his three-point makes an attempt. Peterson had 20 mixed factors. Like Ryan stated, the Trojans want all three on offense to hold them by means of the match.

Who’re your Remaining 4 and championship picks?

Bolch: Earlier than we get to that, can I simply say I’m selecting Cal State Fullerton to finish Coach Krzyzewski’s epic run at Duke? Sure, significantly. Bear in mind, it’s the maddest time of yr. So far as the Remaining 4, I’m going with Gonzaga, UCLA, Arizona and Kansas. Within the championship, I’m going with a Pac-12 match championship rematch that goes the Bruins’ means within the remaining minutes.

Kartje: Are you able to think about Coach Ok’s face in wake of that career-ending upset? Traditional. I’d pay good cash to see that. (Fortunate for me, I’ll be there, anyway.)

Watching Arizona carefully these previous two weeks, I’ve a tough time envisioning anybody beating the Wildcats at their greatest. They’re a well-oiled machine, bursting with expertise at each place. Gonzaga is completely stacked too, and its path to the Remaining 4 appears just about paved for it within the West Area. The truth that Iowa is a 5 seed after its run by means of the Huge Ten match tells me nobody on that committee watched it deal with Purdue within the title sport. Give me the Hawkeyes to get out of the Midwest. The East Area appears ripe for some shenanigans, which is why I’m channeling Invoice Walton and predicting the Convention of Champions to make up half of the Remaining 4. UCLA beats Kentucky … solely to lose once more to Gonzaga within the nationwide semifinal.

McCollough: At first look, I believe Gonzaga has a reasonably good path to the Remaining 4 out west. If the Zags can get by Memphis within the spherical of 32, I believe they coast to New Orleans. I like Kentucky over UCLA within the East. I’m intrigued by Iowa within the Midwest as a result of I simply love the way in which the Hawkeyes are unfazed by any deficit and may outscore anyone. After which it’s actually onerous to guess in opposition to Arizona proper now. So, Gonzaga vs. Kentucky and Iowa vs. Arizona. Once more, early prediction right here, however I’ll take Arizona over Kentucky, identical to in 1997, with the Pac-12 ending its title drought in soccer and males’s basketball.

Nguyen: A replay of that Pac-12 championship sport between UCLA and Arizona would make an ideal nationwide championship matchup, however, sorry Bruin followers, I believe Gonzaga goes to maintain the Bruins out once more. I’ll take Kansas out of the Midwest to face Arizona within the Remaining 4, and, in the end, I believe the third time would be the attraction for the Bulldogs, who knock off Arizona within the championship sport to earn Mark Few his first nationwide championship.