Sports
NFL teams know the best way to draft, so why aren't they doing it?
The 2014 NFL Draft wouldn’t happen for months, but according to Steve Gera, at least one Cleveland Browns executive had his mind made up on one of its most polarizing prospects.
A special assistant to head coach Rob Chudzinski, Gera had been in the NFL for more than five years. The San Diego Chargers had hired the former Marine to “do analytics” in 2007. Gera’s qualifications included a recently obtained MBA from San Diego State and the fact that he’d read “Moneyball.” He scouted opponents and supplied data to coaches through easy-to-read narratives.
“I would just crack jokes and make fun of our offensive coaches but also include information,” Gera said recently. “Data is inherently boring and soulless. What you hear typically sounds like the first day on f—— Mars. I wanted to break it down shotgun style.”
The approach kept him around. Gera studied fourth-down attempts, timeout usage and draft strategies. Relationships made in that role helped him transition into becoming a coach.
That’s what led him to Cleveland, where, on a plane at the beginning of the 2013 season, he says he heard a Browns executive say, “The only person I’ve seen who competes harder than Johnny Manziel is Michael Jordan.”
“What makes you say that?” Gera asked.
“Tape,” the executive said. “Watch it long enough, and you’ll see it, too.”
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Gera left the NFL a decade ago and has since worked in the NBA and European soccer, founded data science companies and taught. Experience in different sectors helped crystallize some of Gera’s beliefs about football, and the Manziel moment epitomizes what Gera believes is one of the most faulty decision-making processes in the NFL: draft strategy.
Compare a prospect to a legend from the outset, and you — or, say, Browns owner Jimmy Haslam, who drafted Manziel No. 22 overall and then watched as the quarterback’s career imploded suddenly and spectacularly — are likely to cling to that early comparison despite evidence to the contrary.
“The draft is an absolute petri dish for every cognitive bias underneath the sun,” Gera said.
Conversations with 14 general managers, coaches, analytics staffers, scouts and executives in other sports — some of whom were granted anonymity because they were not authorized by their current organizations to speak about the highly competitive process — unearthed a messy concoction of uncertainty, overconfidence, competing incentives, pressure and impatience.
“Human dynamics writ large,” said Hall of Fame NFL executive Bill Polian.
Even Nobel Prize-winning scholars have spent decades mulling whether there is a single best way to draft.
The answer, they’ve found, is a resounding yes. But only a few teams are curious enough to think differently, and even fewer are disciplined enough to act differently.
In 2011, Kevin Meers applied for an analytics internship with the Dallas Cowboys. During his interview, Cowboys brass decided that Meers, who majored in economics and statistics at Harvard, was a worthwhile enough candidate to solicit feedback on a 63-page academic paper they found fascinating.
The paper, “Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the National Football League,” had been published six years earlier by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Meers hadn’t read it, hadn’t even heard of it, but it was draft-related and he’d long been draft-interested.
Meers wasn’t your typical draftnik. Spouting opinions on prospects did not captivate him. The allure lay in the idea that you could trade picks. Should you? Why or why not? And how do you assign value to each pick?
Cowboys executives were exploring similar questions internally, and that’s how they found the paper Meers was now dissecting on their behalf.
First, he wondered, who wrote this?
Richard Thaler, an economics professor at the University of Chicago who would win a Nobel Prize in 2017, and Cade Massey, a business professor then at Duke University.
Their hypothesis?
Teams overestimate their abilities to delineate between stars and flops, and because of that they overvalue the “right to choose” in the draft.
And what were the findings after examining every draft pick and trade from 1988 to 2004?
Teams massively overestimate their abilities to delineate between stars and flops, and because of that they heavily overvalue the “right to choose” in the draft.
Meers combed through the paper and uncovered some highlights:
- The treasured No. 1 pick in the draft is actually the least valuable in the first round, according to the surplus value a team can create with each pick.
- Across all rounds, the probability that a player starts more games than the next player chosen at his position is just 53 percent.
- Teams generated a 174 percent return on trades by forgoing a pick this year for picks next year.
Thaler and Massey suggested that teams should accumulate picks by trading back and into the future more often. The more darts you have, the better your chance of eventually hitting the bull’s-eye.
The Cowboys’ interest led them to invite Thaler and Massey into their building for presentations. Jerry Jones dined with them.
Meers, whom the Cowboys ultimately hired, expected a team that understood Thaler and Massey’s research would serve as the perfect place to learn. But he would learn what so many others in professional sports have over the years: analysis is only as good as a decision-maker’s willingness to put it into action.
Thaler and Massey, specifically, understand this better than most. They’ve met with countless teams. Most, if not all, seem receptive to their findings only to toss them aside and operate the way they always have.
“I think the industry is relatively aware of Dick and Cade’s research on the draft,” one longtime NFL executive said. “But I don’t think there have been a lot of people willing to say: ‘I’m going to fully invest in doing this differently than it’s always been done.’”
The night before the 2002 NFL Draft, Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay walked into the team’s draft room with a friend who, according to Polian, considered himself a bit of a draft expert.
The team’s GM since 1998, Polian had been sitting at a long, rectangular table in the front of the room with first-year coach Tony Dungy. Irsay’s friend spotted them and squinted at the 12-by-15-foot board categorizing every player by grade. The wall on the right side of the room had been prepped to show every pick throughout the draft. On the wall on the left, there were two columns headlined DNDC (do not draft, character) and DNDM (do not draft, medical).
“Look at those guys,” the friend blurted out, pointing at the board. “You mean to tell me you’re not going to draft any of those guys?”
“No,” Dungy hollered over. “We’re not interested.”
“Why?” Irsay’s friend replied. “They’re all good players.”
“Well,” Dungy said, “they don’t fit us.”
“People outside the draft rooms only know about 55 percent of what goes into making up the grade,” Polian said recently. “They do not know the personality, the security issues, the medical issues. And they shouldn’t.”
But if teams have all of this inside information, why do they still miss so often?
More than a decade ago, one NFL team commissioned a study into whether certain GMs were better than others at the draft. Though some posted better track records than others, specifically Baltimore’s Ozzie Newsome, the answer was mostly not.
This is not to say all of the league’s top personnel people are poor evaluators. In fact, there is a line of thinking that the smaller the variation in skill among competitors, the more ripe the situation is for randomness to sway the results.
Many executives and scouts, believers in their own methods of evaluation, would disagree vehemently.
The idea of trading down, in particular, consistently repulsed Polian. “I firmly do not believe you trade a high pick, which is going to be a difference-maker, in order to pick up two picks,” he said.
But that’s the issue, one former NFL executive pointed out. That logic assumes the player you’re initially picking will actually become a difference-maker.
“The problem for everyone in sports is that nobody wants to admit how random and arbitrary it is,” the former executive said. “Admitting that it’s arbitrary takes away from your specific abilities.”
Even true believers in trading down don’t hold to the dogma 100 percent of the time. Meers, who became the Browns’ director of research and strategy in 2016, said that exceptions are worth making at the quarterback position and if your team needs a star.
If you have a franchise quarterback, one longtime NFL executive said, you might want to act aggressively to show a commitment to winning.
“I don’t think Dick and Cade were suggesting that any of this is an absolute,” the executive added. “But it’s just, once you run into the realities of it, it’s there. There is absolutely a bias against or fear of admitting uncertainty and trading back time and time again.
“Which is why it’s valuable.”
Another consideration that prevents teams from accumulating more picks is the number of competing incentives among decision-makers. Teams preach collaboration, alignment and shared vision, but their end goals may conflict directly with different segments of the organization.
A general manager might be more focused on his job security over the long-term direction of the organization. A head coach may believe unreasonably in his own ability to mold a player. Coordinators and position coaches want to add talent to their groups, while scouts may quite literally pound the table for the players they unearthed during the pre-draft process.
“Everybody is spitting falsehoods about how good they think a player is because they want one more bullet in the chamber for themselves,” one longtime executive from another professional league said. “That’s reasonable and rational, that they would behave in their own self-interest, but you have to find a way to discount it as a GM.
“Is the coach in this situation 20 percent crazy? Is the offensive coordinator 40 percent crazy? Is the linebackers coach 60 percent crazy? Because they might be. They’re thinking in a way humans would think.”
The former NFL executive suggested the inherent irrationality drove him “a little crazy.”
“When you grow up, you think these teams are so good, and they’re all trying to pedal in the same direction and win,” he added. “And when you’re there, you realize that very few are really doing that. Everyone is just looking out for themselves.”
Public pressure may prevent some teams from enacting the newer approach. Make seven picks, and you’ll be judged seven times. Make three trades and 10 picks, and you’ll be judged 13 times. Watch other teams nail picks you traded — or miss on picks you traded for — and negative narratives can quickly form.
Ownership plays a pivotal role. In many cases, franchise owners are men and women who built business empires by making sound decisions over long periods of time. And yet, they struggle to duplicate this approach with their sports team.
Offer Jones $100 this year or $274 next year and his answer will unquestionably be the latter. But offer him a third-rounder this year or a second-rounder next year and he’s likely to think it over a little longer.
Jones met with Thaler and Massey and fully understood their research results. Then, during his team’s draft preparations, he listened to Cowboys executives and scouts. By draft night, Dallas was not trading down but up for players the team had barely considered.
Luke Bornn, who from 2017-20 was the vice president of strategy and analytics for the Sacramento Kings and who has since managed multiple European soccer teams alongside former Oakland A’s executive Billy Beane — of “Moneyball” fame — has thought a lot about the role of ownership.
“You have an environment in sports where there are very high-dollar decisions being made, and it’s simultaneously a very emotional playground in which to make those decisions,” Bornn said. “Those two things combined lead to bizarre behavior … which is sticky. Things happen where you might look back and say, ‘Why in the world do they do that?’”
In 2013, Thaler and Massey published another paper, “The loser’s curse: Decision making and market efficiency in the National Football League draft,” finding that some teams had adapted their processes, but “slowly and insufficiently.”
In 2017, Mike Band, a master’s student at the University of Chicago, wrote that the “trade market is becoming more efficient.” In 2021, Tucker Boynton and Ella Papanek, two Harvard students, referenced the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens as teams that traded frequently and maintained consistent returns in the draft.
Coincidentally, around that time, Ravens GM Eric DeCosta said the following on a podcast: “There was a really seminal article written in 2005. It was really about the draft and how teams should trade back and always acquire picks — and never trade up.”
Ravens GM Eric DeCosta talking to former Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff on FA, comp picks and draft philosophy.
We get a great mention of what DeCosta learned from the seminal “Loser’s Curse” paper from @bcmassey & @R_Thaler pic.twitter.com/Kzl1W0fitr
— Kevin Cole (@KevinCole___) April 14, 2022
DeCosta doubled down in 2021 when a reporter mentioned the Ravens as one of the top drafting teams in the NFL. “We’ve probably had the most picks over that span,” he said. “That goes back to a philosophy that I think Ozzie started back in 1996.”
Other teams have tried to garner more picks with varying success.
The Minnesota Vikings’ analytics staff recommended that GM Rick Spielman amass more picks, so he tried, completing 37 draft-pick trades from 2011 to 2020. Results were mixed, and fans constantly dinged Spielman for moving down.
“I’ve been told that if I could trade my mother for a seventh-round pick, I would do that,” Spielman said. “I always thought that the more opportunities you had, the better odds you had.”
Colts GM Chris Ballard once ended a news conference by saying, “I love ‘dem picks,” teasing reporters about the possibility that they’d sit through the entire first round for no reason. Later on, he explained the thought process behind his comment: “I think we’re pretty good at what we do, but there needs to be a little luck involved, and the more picks you have, the more chances of luck are going to show up.”
Other teams eschew this type of thinking. Jones and New Orleans Saints GM Mickey Loomis both tend to trade future picks, while Miami Dolphins GM Chris Grier and Jacksonville Jaguars GM Trent Baalke tend to trade up.
Thinking back to his time with the Browns, especially during the draft process, Gera is not surprised to hear that teams are still operating so inefficiently nearly 20 years after Thaler and Massey published their paper. During his season with Cleveland, Gera was not even sure who was making the final selection on each pick.
“The thing here that I would tell you is the way the sausage is made is not always pretty or very organized,” Gera said. “And I think it would blow away most fans.”
(Illustration: Sean Reilly / The Athletic; photos: Tom Pennington, Marlin Levison, Harold Hoch / Getty Images)
Sports
Astros' Jose Abreu getting sent to A-ball after tumultuous start to season
In his first 10 seasons in the Major Leagues, Jose Abreu was named to three All-Star Games, earned three Silver Slugger Awards, and won an MVP in the truncated 2020 season — soon, he is in A-ball.
The Houston Astros announced on Tuesday they will send the first baseman down to the minor leagues on Tuesday as he continues to struggle at the Major League level.
Abreu signed a three-year deal worth nearly $60 million with Houston prior to the 2023 season, and he posted career-lows with a .237/.296/.383 slashline — in 22 big league games this season, he’s hitting .099.
General manager Dana Brown said the decision was made after a meeting that included himself, Abreu, coaches and front-office personnel — as Abreu is long-non-arbitration eligible, he needed to accept the option.
Brown said Abreu was very receptive during their conversation and had a good attitude about the move.
“José Abreu is an outstanding human being,” Brown said. “He is unselfish and he’s a teammates guy and he wants to get himself back to what he was doing last fall. And so, in the midst of this conversation, you could see that this guy is passionate and determined to get back to helping his team.
“And so he unselfishly was on board with an agreement with going back to West Palm Beach and getting some extra at-bats, getting some detailed instruction on what we could do to get him back,” Brown continued.
“He got to the point where he was frustrated,” Brown added. “It’s rare to do it. But I think it tells us about his dedication and commitment and I don’t think he sees this as a long-term and I don’t think we see it as a long-term thing. I think it’s more like… let’s go down, let’s make some adjustments. Let’s get the rhythm and timing back. And I think in his eyes, he’s looking at it as, ‘I’ll be back in a couple of weeks or whatever it takes to get better.’”
He has just one extra-base hit and three RBI in the young season.
It’s not just Abreu who is struggling in Houston — the Astros entered Tuesday at 9-19.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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Sports
Long Beach State men's volleyball sweeps Belmont Abbey
No. 2 Long Beach State dominated in a three-set sweep against No. 7 Belmont Abbey in the first round of the NCAA tournament on Tuesday at Walter Pyramid. After the 25-18, 25-14, 25-11 victory, the Beach will face No. 3 seed Grand Canyon or No. 6 Ohio State in the national semifinal at 6:30 p.m. on Thursday.
Long Beach State (26-2) overwhelmed the Crusaders with three attackers with double-digit kills. First-team All-American Sotiris Siapanis had 11 kills in 16 swings, followed by 10 kills each from Skyler Varga and Nathan Harlan. Harlan came one kill shy of his career high.
The Beach, which entered the tournament as the nation leader in blocks per set at 3.23, didn’t have a single block in the first two sets despite dominating both. The Beach finally got its block game going as setter Aidan Knipe and middle blocker Simon Torwie teammed to stuff Belmont Abbey’s Jibriel Elhaddad on the first point of the third set. The Beach never trailed in the last game.
Knipe, who was selected a second-team AVCA All-American for the first time in his career, had 37 assists and seven digs.
Sports
2024 NFL Draft team-by-team rankings: Best and worst classes, from 1 to 32
This is my spin on draft grades. After the NFL Draft each year, I rank my favorite (and least favorite) draft classes, from 1 to 32.
I don’t use any special formula or analytical metric to come up with the order — I simply go by which team got me the most pumped about their draft hauls. Obviously, teams with multiple early-round picks will show up higher in the rankings than those with fewer selections.
Also, future picks or veteran players acquired do not factor into these rankings (even if they’re mentioned in the team breakdowns). Teams are ranked strictly on the prospects drafted and the values of where they were selected.
NFL Draft winners and losers: Mike Jones’ draft review
Bruce Feldman’s draft takeaways: Best picks, sleepers, more
Draft pick grades: Round 1 | Rounds 2-3
Full draft results: Team picks for all 257 selections
The 2024 draft rankings:
Rd. | Pick | Player | Pos. | School |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
1 |
Caleb Williams |
QB |
|
1 |
9 |
Rome Odunze |
WR |
|
3 |
75 |
Kiran Amegadjie |
OT |
|
4 |
122 |
Tory Taylor |
P |
|
5 |
144 |
Austin Booker |
Edge |
Favorite pick: Caleb Williams, QB, USC
Obviously, teams with multiple early-round picks have a decided advantage for this exercise over those with fewer selections. But the Bears aren’t No. 1 merely because they had two top-10 picks. They’re here because of what they did with those picks — and I went back and forth on my “favorite” between Williams and wide receiver Rome Odunze. The answer, though, has to be the quarterback who can be a franchise-changing player for Chicago. I am also a fan of third-round OT Kiran Amegadjie, who has the talent to be Chicago’s left tackle of the future.
Day 3 pick who could surprise: Austin Booker, Edge, Kansas
Chicago only had two Day 3 choices, and I’m not going to pick the punter (Tory Taylor). The Bears used a 2025 fourth-round pick to trade back into this draft (at No. 144) and scoop up Booker, who easily could have been drafted on Day 2. Although he isn’t ready for a meaningful role as a rookie, Booker has the promising pass-rush savvy to be a steal when we look back at this selection in two or three years.
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Rd. | Pick | Player | Pos. | School |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
20 |
Troy Fautanu |
OT |
|
2 |
51 |
Zach Frazier |
C |
|
3 |
84 |
Roman Wilson |
WR |
|
3 |
98 |
Payton Wilson |
LB |
|
4 |
119 |
Mason McCormick |
G |
|
6 |
178 |
Logan Lee |
DT |
|
6 |
195 |
Ryan Watts |
S |
Favorite pick: Troy Fautanu, OT/G, Washington
The Steelers had four picks in the top 100, and all four were home runs. Michigan receiver Roman Wilson is a tough cover because of his speed, and linebacker Payton Wilson will fill up the stat sheet (as long as he stays healthy). It also was difficult not to choose center Zach Frazier here, not only because he was a steal at No. 51, but also because he’s a perfect fit for this team. But I have to go with Fautanu, my ninth-ranked player overall. He will be a Band-Aid for the Pittsburgh offensive line with his ability to play either tackle or guard.
Day 3 pick who could surprise: Mason McCormick, G, South Dakota State
Pittsburgh remade its offensive line in this draft class. Although not a slam-dunk starter, McCormick adds immediate depth on the interior and will push for early playing time. All three of the Steelers’ Day 3 selections (McCormick, DL Logan Lee and DB Ryan Watts) were standouts during East-West Shrine Bowl week.
Rd. | Pick | Player | Pos. | School |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
24 |
Terrion Arnold |
CB |
|
2 |
61 |
Ennis Rakestraw Jr. |
CB |
|
4 |
126 |
Giovanni Manu |
OT |
|
4 |
132 |
Sione Vaki |
RB |
|
6 |
189 |
Mekhi Wingo |
DT |
|
6 |
210 |
Christian Mahogany |
G |
Favorite pick: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
No. 10 on my board, Arnold was my highest-graded defensive player in the entire draft — and the Lions were able to trade up and get him at 24. Aside from the talent he brings to the roster, the fit is what makes this one of my favorite picks. Arnold is one of the most competitive players in the draft class, and he’s ideally wired not just for a cornerback, but especially for a Dan Campbell-coached cornerback.
“I’M HOME!” @ArnoldTerrion took the mic to talk directly to his new fanbase 🎤
📺: #NFLDraft on NFLN/ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/UlLfiwJeMU— NFL (@NFL) April 26, 2024
Day 3 pick who could surprise: Christian Mahogany, G, Boston College
The Lions had a fascinating Day 3, including trading a 2025 third-round pick to draft Giovanni Manu, a project left tackle with rare tools. But it was Detroit’s two Round 6 picks that stood out — LSU’s Mekhi Wingo and Mahogany, who both ranked inside my top 100. Some medical questions caused Mahogany to fall, but he is a smash-mouth power blocker with lighter feet than expected. It won’t be a surprise if he is competing for a starting role in 2025.
Rd. | Pick | Player | Pos. | School |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
22 |
Quinyon Mitchell |
CB |
|
2 |
40 |
Cooper DeJean |
CB |
|
3 |
94 |
Jalyx Hunt |
Edge |
|
4 |
127 |
Will Shipley |
RB |
|
5 |
152 |
Ainias Smith |
WR |
|
5 |
155 |
Jeremiah Trotter Jr. |
LB |
|
5 |
172 |
Trevor Keegan |
G |
|
6 |
185 |
Johnny Wilson |
WR |
|
6 |
190 |
Dylan McMahon |
C |
Favorite pick: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
The Eagles are almost always near the top of my annual draft rankings, and this year is no different. Adding defensive back Cooper DeJean in the second round was tremendous value, but having Mitchell fall in their laps at No. 22 was a steal. An outstanding size/speed athlete, the Toledo product plays with high-level ball skills and composure. On top of landing an impressive class, the Eagles also added third-, fourth- and fifth-round selections in the 2025 draft via trade.
Day 3 pick who could surprise: Will Shipley, RB, Clemson
The Eagles cleaned up on Day 3, adding a legacy pick (Jeremiah Trotter Jr.), an impact returner (Ainias Smith) and an oversized receiver (Johnny Wilson). I expect Shipley to make an immediate impact as part of the backfield. Though he runs like a grinder, Shipley has athleticism to make defenders miss — especially in the screen game, which should be more of an emphasis for the Eagles under new play caller Kellen Moore.
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Cooper DeJean joins Quinyon Mitchell as new Eagles DBs hoping to shore up secondary
Rd. | Pick | Player | Pos. | School |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
4 |
Marvin Harrison Jr. |
WR |
|
1 |
27 |
Darius Robinson |
Edge |
|
2 |
43 |
Max Melton |
CB |
|
3 |
66 |
Trey Benson |
RB |
|
3 |
71 |
Isaiah Adams |
G |
|
3 |
82 |
Tip Reiman |
TE |
|
3 |
90 |
Elijah Jones |
CB |
|
4 |
104 |
Dadrian Taylor-Demerson |
S |
|
5 |
138 |
Xavier Thomas |
Edge |
|
5 |
162 |
Christian Jones |
OT |
|
6 |
191 |
Tejhaun Palmer |
WR |
|
7 |
226 |
Jaden Davis |
CB |
Favorite pick: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
The unwritten goal for NFL teams is to come away from each draft with four starters. With 12 selections this year, there is a good chance the Cardinals exceed that number. There is no doubt that the Cardinals considered the other top receivers in this class or trade-down options, but ultimately, they weren’t going to overthink this selection. The No. 2 player on my board, Harrison has a skill set reminiscent of Larry Fitzgerald and will upgrade the Arizona offense immediately.
Day 3 pick who could surprise: Xavier Thomas, Edge, Clemson
The Cardinals addressed defensive end in Round 1 (Darius Robinson), but it wouldn’t be a shock if they get more immediate pass-rush production from Thomas. More of a subpackage rusher, he is straight-line explosive with active hands that can affect backfield action.
Rd. | Pick | Player | Pos. | School |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
5 |
Joe Alt |
OT |
|
2 |
34 |
Ladd McConkey |
WR |
|
3 |
69 |
Junior Colson |
LB |
|
4 |
105 |
Justin Eboigbe |
DT |
|
5 |
137 |
Tarheeb Still |
CB |
|
5 |
140 |
Cam Hart |
CB |
|
6 |
181 |
Kimani Vidal |
RB |
|
7 |
225 |
Brenden Rice |
WR |
|
7 |
253 |
Cornelius Johnson |
WR |
Favorite pick: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
Honestly, it was something of a three-way tie for my favorite Chargers pick between Alt, Ladd McConkey and Junior Colson. But if I have to choose one, it’s Alt, who was my No. 5 player in the class. With Rashawn Slater and Alt, the Chargers’ tackle situation is now the envy of most teams. McConkey is a quarterback-friendly target for Justin Herbert and Colson is a green-dot linebacker, too — the Chargers crushed their first three picks.
“offensive linemen we look at as weapons” pic.twitter.com/3mBgFfcKDj
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) April 26, 2024
Day 3 pick who could surprise: Kimani Vidal, RB, Troy
The Chargers added J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, but I expect Vidal to play a meaningful role almost immediately. He might not be a home run-hitter, but he is the type of running back Jim Harbaugh appreciates — someone who gets the singles and doubles and can be trusted to stay on the field in any situation.
Rd. | Pick | Player | Pos. | School |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
6 |
Malik Nabers |
WR |
|
2 |
47 |
Tyler Nubin |
S |
|
3 |
70 |
Andru Phillips |
CB |
|
4 |
107 |
Theo Johnson |
TE |
|
5 |
166 |
Tyrone Tracy Jr. |
RB |
|
6 |
183 |
Darius Muasau |
LB |
Favorite pick: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
The Giants drafted several of “my guys” in this draft — Nabers, Andru Phillips and Tyrone Tracy Jr. But it all starts with Nabers, who would have been an easy top-five pick in most other drafts. Luckily for the Giants, they were able to nab him at No. 6, giving their offense the truly explosive threat it had been missing.
Day 3 pick who could surprise: Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB, Purdue
Devin Singletary and Eric Gray are solid players, but Tracy has an opportunity to make an immediate impact, both on offense and as a return man. The former wide receiver is at his best as a pass catcher, but as long as he has a lane, Tracy can create big plays. I would be remiss if I didn’t mention TE Theo Johnson, as well, whose value could climb if Darren Waller doesn’t return in 2024.
Rd. | Pick | Player | Pos. | School |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
3 |
Drake Maye |
QB |
|
2 |
37 |
Ja’Lynn Polk |
WR |
|
3 |
68 |
Caedan Wallace |
OT |
|
4 |
103 |
Layden Robinson |
G |
|
4 |
110 |
Javon Baker |
WR |
|
6 |
180 |
Marcellas Dial |
CB |
|
6 |
193 |
Joe Milton III |
QB |
|
7 |
231 |
Jaheim Bell |
TE |
Favorite pick: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
The Patriots aren’t accustomed to drafting in the top three, but they picked a good year to do so. My No. 2 quarterback in the class, Maye goes to a situation in which he won’t be pressed into action right away, but all the tools are there for him to develop into a top-10 NFL QB. I didn’t love some of the Patriots’ other picks, but they landed Maye, which boosted their spot in these rankings.
Day 3 pick who could surprise: Javon Baker, WR, UCF
Following the Maye selection, the Patriots selected four consecutive offensive players to help their young quarterback (two receivers and two offensive linemen). The second of those receivers was Baker, who isn’t a refined player but is plenty exciting. The Alabama transfer averaged 21.9 yards per reception last year and put several explosive plays on tape, even if multiple inefficiencies in his game need to be ironed out.
GO DEEPER
2024 NFL Draft’s best undrafted free agents: Kedon Slovis, Gabriel Murphy, other UDFAs
Rd. | Pick | Player | Pos. | School |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
2 |
Jayden Daniels |
QB |
|
2 |
36 |
Johnny Newton |
DT |
|
2 |
50 |
Mike Sainristil |
CB |
|
2 |
53 |
Ben Sinnott |
TE |
|
3 |
67 |
Brandon Coleman |
OT |
|
3 |
100 |
Luke McCaffrey |
WR |
|
5 |
139 |
Jordan Magee |
LB |
|
5 |
161 |
Dominique Hampton |
S |
|
7 |
222 |
Javontae Jean-Baptiste |
Edge |
Favorite pick: Mike Sainristil, CB, Michigan
I think Jayden Daniels quickly will be a dynamic NFL player, but my “favorite” picks by the Commanders were their next two selections: Sainristil and defensive tackle Johnny Newton. Despite being undersized, Sainristil is a smart player — it is no coincidence that he consistently delivered difference-making plays on tape. Another favorite from this class was OT Brandon Coleman. I was ready to defend his high ranking (No. 66) on my board, but the Commanders drafted him at No. 67, and I don’t think they will regret it.
Day 3 pick who could surprise: Dominique Hampton, S, Washington
Dan Quinn has a history of tapping into the strengths of oversized safeties, and Hampton could be next. At 6-foot-2 and 215 pounds, Hampton is a premier athlete (4.45-second 40-yard dash) with a versatile background as a cornerback, nickel and on special teams. His lack of difference-making plays stands out, but he can be a solid role player.
Rd. | Pick | Player | Pos. | School |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
29 |
Tyler Guyton |
OT |
|
2 |
56 |
Marshawn Kneeland |
Edge |
|
3 |
73 |
Cooper Beebe |
G |
|
3 |
87 |
Marist Liufau |
LB |
|
5 |
174 |
Caelen Carson |
CB |
|
6 |
216 |
Ryan Flournoy |
WR |
|
7 |
233 |
Nathan Thomas |
OT |
|
7 |
244 |
Justin Rogers |
DT |
Favorite pick: Marshawn Kneeland, Edge, Western Michigan
I’m surprised the Cowboys didn’t draft a running back, but I really like most of the eight selections they did make. With picks 29, 56 and 73, respectively, Dallas drafted my No. 27 (Tyler Guyton), No. 32 (Kneeland) and No. 38 (Cooper Beebe) overall prospects. Kneeland is an impressive athlete at 270 pounds and rushes with balance and heavy hands. Pass rusher was an underrated need for the Cowboys entering the draft, and they landed an ascending player with his best football ahead of him.
That Kneeland Feelin’ 🥹#CowboysDraft | @MKneeland99 pic.twitter.com/zIwJ5x0tKZ
— Dallas Cowboys (@dallascowboys) April 27, 2024
Day 3 pick who could surprise: Caelen Carson, CB, Wake Forest
The Cowboys have one of the NFL’s best starting corner duos in DaRon Bland and Trevon Diggs (who is coming off major injury). But depth is a major question mark, so Carson could see meaningful defensive snaps as a rookie. My 102nd-ranked player (drafted at No. 174), he is a solid athlete with high football IQ and inside-outside versatility.
Rd. | Pick | Player | Pos. | School |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
13 |
Brock Bowers |
TE |
|
2 |
44 |
Jackson Powers-Johnson |
C |
|
3 |
77 |
Delmar Glaze |
OT |
|
4 |
112 |
Decamerion Richardson |
CB |
|
5 |
148 |
Tommy Eichenberg |
LB |
|
6 |
208 |
Dylan Laube |
RB |
|
7 |
223 |
Trey Taylor |
S |
|
7 |
229 |
M.J. Devonshire |
CB |
Favorite pick: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
When doing my final mock draft, I didn’t give much thought to the Raiders drafting Bowers at No. 13 — but it makes sense, as Las Vegas wisely stuck to the “best player available” approach. Even though the Raiders have a solid tight end depth chart, Bowers also will spend time as a part-time slot receiver. He should quickly become the No. 2 pass-catching option in this offense, behind Davante Adams.
Day 3 pick who could surprise: Dylan Laube, RB, New Hampshire
I think Decamerion Richardson could surprise with his rare length and speed, and Tommy Eichenberg is just a rock-solid linebacker. But I can’t wait to see Laube carve out a role for himself in the Raiders’ offense. Zamir White and Alexander Mattison will chew up most of the carries, but Laube could finish top five on the team in catches in 2024.
GO DEEPER
NFL Draft 2024 ‘The Beast’ Guide: Dane Brugler’s scouting reports and player rankings
Rd. | Pick | Player | Pos. | School |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
30 |
Nate Wiggins |
CB |
|
2 |
62 |
Roger Rosengarten |
OT |
|
3 |
93 |
Adisa Isaac |
Edge |
|
4 |
113 |
Devontez Walker |
WR |
|
4 |
130 |
T.J. Tampa |
CB |
|
5 |
165 |
Rasheen Ali |
RB |
|
6 |
218 |
Devin Leary |
QB |
|
7 |
228 |
Nick Samac |
C |
|
7 |
250 |
Sanoussi Kane |
S |
Favorite pick: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
In typical Ravens fashion, they waited and allowed a good player to fall into their laps late in Round 1. Although I have my concerns with his play strength and body type, Wiggins is a high-level athlete who has the cover skills to make a quick impact. Marlon Humphrey and Wiggins make for an impressive starting cornerback duo.
Day 3 pick who could surprise: T.J. Tampa, CB, Iowa State
A player who went about 100 spots later than most expected, Tampa hurt himself during the pre-draft process by turning down the Senior Bowl and then running a 4.58 40 at his pro day. He doesn’t have ideal speed or twitch for man coverage, but his size and ball skills are traits worth developing on the outside.
Rd. | Pick | Player | Pos. | School |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
28 |
Xavier Worthy |
WR |
|
2 |
63 |
Kingsley Suamataia |
OT |
|
4 |
131 |
Jared Wiley |
TE |
|
4 |
133 |
Jaden Hicks |
S |
|
5 |
159 |
Hunter Nourzad |
C |
|
6 |
211 |
Kamal Hadden |
CB |
|
7 |
248 |
C.J. Hanson |
G |
Favorite pick: Jaden Hicks, S, Washington State
If needed, I’ll go down with the ship on this one. Hicks was viewed as a Day 2 prospect by numerous teams, but he fell through the cracks and landed in a favorable situation with Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. Hicks has the intimidation factor of a strong safety and the athletic tools to hold up in coverage. Even if there isn’t a clear path for him to start right away in Kansas City, he will get on the field in some way as a rookie.
Day 3 pick who could surprise: Hunter Nourzad, G/C, Penn State
One of the smartest prospects in this class, Nourzad doesn’t have overwhelming athleticism or strength, but he processes everything very quickly and is well-schooled with his technique to gain proper leverage. He has experience at tackle, guard and center and could be a viable starting option at right guard in 2025, if the Chiefs aren’t able to re-sign Trey Smith.
Rd. | Pick | Player | Pos. | School |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
15 |
Laiatu Latu |
Edge |
|
2 |
52 |
Adonai Mitchell |
WR |
|
3 |
79 |
Matt Goncalves |
OT |
|
4 |
117 |
Tanor Bortolini |
C |
|
5 |
142 |
Anthony Gould |
WR |
|
5 |
151 |
Jaylon Carlies |
S |
|
5 |
164 |
Jaylin Simpson |
S |
|
6 |
201 |
Micah Abraham |
CB |
|
7 |
234 |
Jonah Laulu |
DT |
Favorite pick: Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA
With his medical history, Latu was a complicated prospect to project for all of us on the outside. Just based on ability, though, he was easy to appreciate. Despite having average size, length and strength, Latu has a sixth sense for pass rushing. He has a crafty understanding of how to break down the rhythm of blockers with skilled, well-timed moves, which should translate very well (and quickly) to the NFL game.
Day 3 pick who could surprise: Tanor Bortolini, G/C, Wisconsin
A player-team fit I had (at No. 117) in my mock draft, Bortolini checks a lot of boxes for what the Colts and general manager Chris Ballard target. He had an historic combine performance with his athletic testing and offers interior versatility at both guard and center. As early as the 2025 season, Bortolini could be the Colts’ starting right guard or center.
GO DEEPER
Scout’s-eye view: Colts’ talent evaluators shed light on team’s newest additions
Rd. | Pick | Player | Pos. | School |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
10 |
J.J. McCarthy |
QB |
|
1 |
17 |
Dallas Turner |
Edge |
|
4 |
108 |
Khyree Jackson |
CB |
|
6 |
177 |
Walter Rouse |
OT |
|
6 |
203 |
Will Reichard |
K |
|
7 |
230 |
Michael Jurgens |
C |
|
7 |
232 |
Levi Drake Rodriguez |
DT |
Favorite pick: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
The Vikings’ process was a little complicated, and we can break down those decisions another time. But they came out of the first round with two players who should be cornerstone pieces. McCarthy was a tricky prospect to evaluate because you wanted to see more from his tape, but — like I’ve been saying since the summer — the tools and intangibles are worth cultivating. And McCarthy goes to a favorable situation, which will help accelerate his development.
Day 3 pick who could surprise: Khyree Jackson, CB, Oregon
Jackson has taken a winding path to this point. If he can build upon the promise he showed on his 2023 tape, though, the Vikings could have a starting-caliber player. He has rare size (6-4, 194), which allows him to match up and take away air space downfield. His discipline must improve, but Jackson has favorable tools.
Rd. | Pick | Player | Pos. | School |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
16 |
Byron Murphy II |
DT |
|
3 |
81 |
Christian Haynes |
G |
|
4 |
118 |
Tyrice Knight |
LB |
|
4 |
121 |
AJ Barner |
TE |
|
5 |
136 |
Nehemiah Pritchett |
CB |
|
6 |
179 |
Sataoa Laumea |
G |
|
6 |
192 |
DJ James |
CB |
|
6 |
207 |
Michael Jerrell |
OT |
Favorite pick: Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
One of my favorite players in this draft class, Murphy is equally disruptive versus the run and when rushing the passer. He can line up across the defensive front and give the Seahawks something a little different than what they had on their line. I also loved Seattle’s Christian Haynes addition, especially outside the top 80.
Day 3 pick who could surprise: DJ James, CB, Auburn
The Seahawks doubled up on Auburn cornerbacks, and it will be interesting to see which one ultimately makes more of an impact. I won’t be surprised if James outplays Nehemiah Pritchett, despite being the later draft pick, because he has quick-reaction skills and the cover confidence required to play a nickel role.
Bringing versatility to the secondary.@Djames00x | @QNTMFiber pic.twitter.com/n2Rjj6tlyV
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) April 27, 2024
Rd. | Pick | Player | Pos. | School |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
11 |
Olu Fashanu |
OT |
|
3 |
65 |
Malachi Corley |
WR |
|
4 |
134 |
Braelon Allen |
RB |
|
5 |
171 |
Jordan Travis |
QB |
|
5 |
173 |
Isaiah Davis |
RB |
|
5 |
176 |
Qwan’tez Stiggers |
CB |
|
7 |
257 |
Jaylen Key |
S |
Favorite pick: Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State
The Jets know better than most teams how attrition on the offensive line can derail a season. Tyron Smith is still an above-average left tackle, but he is in on a one-year deal and hasn’t played a full season since 2015. Fashanu gives the Jets insurance at left tackle for 2024 and an exciting long-term plan at the position.
Day 3 pick who could surprise: Qwan’tez Stiggers, CB, CFL
Stiggers has an astounding backstory, but there’s more to him than just his inspiring journey. He also has the tools to develop into an impactful role player. Stiggers (6-0, 205) has 4.4 speed and was the CFL Rookie of the Year last season with 12 passes defended and five interceptions.
GO DEEPER
Jake Ciely’s 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings: Post NFL Draft ranks update
Rd. | Pick | Player | Pos. | School |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
18 |
Amarius Mims |
OT |
|
2 |
49 |
Kris Jenkins |
DT |
|
3 |
80 |
Jermaine Burton |
WR |
|
3 |
97 |
McKinnley Jackson |
DT |
|
4 |
115 |
Erick All |
TE |
|
5 |
149 |
Josh Newton |
CB |
|
6 |
194 |
Tanner McLachlan |
TE |
|
6 |
214 |
Cedric Johnson |
Edge |
|
7 |
224 |
Daijahn Anthony |
S |
|
7 |
237 |
Matt Lee |
CB |
Favorite pick: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
This is a great fit for both sides. Yes, Mims only had eight starts at the college level, so bumps in the road should be expected. But he won’t be rushed onto the field. With his traits and natural ability, Mims could stand out as the best offensive tackle from this class when we look back in three years.
Day 3 pick who could surprise: Tanner McLachlan, TE, Arizona
McLachlan wasn’t even the first tight end the Bengals drafted on Day 3, but it won’t be surprising if he is the most impactful. He is a terrific athlete for his size (6-5, 244) and consistently moves the chains without putting the ball on the ground (zero drops in 2023 and an 81.8 first-down/touchdown percentage).
Rd. | Pick | Player | Pos. | School |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
14 |
Taliese Fuaga |
OT |
|
2 |
41 |
Kool-Aid McKinstry |
CB |
|
5 |
150 |
Spencer Rattler |
QB |
|
5 |
170 |
Bub Means |
WR |
|
5 |
175 |
Jaylan Ford |
LB |
|
6 |
199 |
Khristian Boyd |
DT |
|
7 |
239 |
Josiah Ezirim |
OT |
Favorite pick: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
Fuaga is considered a right tackle or guard by most teams, but can he play left tackle? There are some questions left to answer, but there is no doubt that the Saints’ offensive line is vastly improved with Fuaga now in the mix. Training camp will determine who plays where, but it is clear the Saints view Fuaga as an offensive tackle with versatility on either side.
Day 3 pick who could surprise: Spencer Rattler, QB, South Carolina
At No. 150, why not throw a dart on a talented quarterback? Rattler is an average athlete and tends to be too methodical with his process, but he has an NFL arm with the mechanics and poise to handle NFL reps. It will be interesting to track his career, even if he spends most of it on the bench over his first two seasons.
Rd. | Pick | Player | Pos. | School |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
33 |
Keon Coleman |
WR |
|
2 |
60 |
Cole Bishop |
S |
|
3 |
95 |
DeWayne Carter |
DT |
|
4 |
128 |
Ray Davis |
RB |
|
5 |
141 |
Sedrick Van Pran-Granger |
C |
|
5 |
160 |
Edefuan Ulofoshio |
LB |
|
5 |
168 |
Javon Solomon |
Edge |
|
6 |
204 |
Tylan Grable |
OT |
|
6 |
219 |
Daquan Hardy |
CB |
|
7 |
221 |
Travis Clayton |
OT |
Favorite pick: Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State
Josh Allen really hasn’t had a target like this in Buffalo. Coleman’s 40-yard dash won’t wow anyone, but he is a terrific athlete — especially at the catch point, where his basketball background shines. His ability to expand his catch radius and rescue the football is exceptional, and Allen won’t be shy about giving Coleman chances to make plays.
Day 3 pick who could surprise: Ray Davis, RB, Kentucky
James Cook will be the starter, but Davis can ascend to RB2 status on the Buffalo depth chart and play a prominent role in 2024. His urgent decision-making, lateral quickness and ability to catch the football perfectly fit what the Bills want to be on offense.
GO DEEPER
Ray Davis grew up homeless, now he seeks to be a ‘name you’ll remember forever’
Rd. | Pick | Player | Pos. | School |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
25 |
Jordan Morgan |
OT |
|
2 |
45 |
Edgerrin Cooper |
LB |
|
2 |
58 |
Javon Bullard |
S |
|
3 |
88 |
MarShawn Lloyd |
RB |
|
3 |
91 |
Ty’Ron Hopper |
LB |
|
4 |
111 |
Evan Williams |
S |
|
5 |
163 |
Jacob Monk |
C |
|
5 |
169 |
Kitan Oladapo |
S |
|
6 |
202 |
Travis Glover Jr. |
OT |
|
7 |
245 |
Michael Pratt |
QB |
|
7 |
255 |
Kalen King |
CB |
Favorite pick: Javon Bullard, S, Georgia
The Packers wanted to overhaul their safety position this offseason. They did that by adding Xavier McKinney in free agency and Bullard in the draft. With his ability to rapidly read routes and drive on the football, Bullock can play a nickel role or drop and handle coverage in space. The Georgia coaches raved about his competitive confidence and leadership personality.
Keeping a “G” on the helmet. @cravejaaye 🐶@amfam | #PackersDraft pic.twitter.com/f6lp2tyLNs
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) April 27, 2024
Day 3 pick who could surprise: Jacob Monk, G/C, Duke
With the future of the Packers’ center position unsettled, I wouldn’t rule out Monk as a possible long-term option. His size and strength are solid, but what separates Monk is his foot quickness and processing skills, which will allow him to compete for reps at both guard and center.
Rd. | Pick | Player | Pos. | School |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
26 |
Graham Barton |
C |
|
2 |
57 |
Chris Braswell |
Edge |
|
3 |
89 |
Tykee Smith |
S |
|
3 |
92 |
Jalen McMillan |
WR |
|
4 |
125 |
Bucky Irving |
RB |
|
6 |
220 |
Elijah Klein |
G |
|
7 |
246 |
Devin Culp |
TE |
Favorite pick: Graham Barton, G/C, Duke
Though I have mixed feelings about Tampa’s overall haul, the Buccaneers hit a home run with Barton, who should be the immediate starter at left guard. Aside from locking down a starting role, his value will be felt in his versatility, which will help Tampa get its best five linemen on the field — even if injuries happen.
Day 3 pick who could surprise: Bucky Irving, RB, Oregon
With his average size and athletic testing, Irving is a trust-the-tape kind of player. He skillfully uses his size and patience to hide behind blockers and pick his way through the heart of the defense. I’m interested to see how the backfield touches will be distributed behind Rachaad White this season.
Rd. | Pick | Player | Pos. | School |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
21 |
Chop Robinson |
Edge |
|
2 |
55 |
Patrick Paul |
OT |
|
4 |
120 |
Jaylen Wright |
RB |
|
5 |
158 |
Mohamed Kamara |
Edge |
|
6 |
184 |
Malik Washington |
WR |
|
6 |
198 |
Patrick McMorris |
S |
|
7 |
241 |
Tahj Washington |
WR |
Favorite pick: Jaylen Wright, RB, Tennessee
A team that prides itself on being the fastest in the league added one of the fastest players in the draft. Wright is a track sprinter with 4.38 speed and shows a lot of promise when he has daylight in front of him. His run tempo and patience are works in progress, but he averaged 7.4 yards per carry in 2023 and will be a home-run hitter as a rookie.
Day 3 pick who could surprise: Malik Washington, WR, Virginia
One of the best values in the entire draft class. Undersized at 5-9, 191, Washington plays bigger than that because of his adjustment skills and ability to create with the ball in his hands. Only Nabers and Odunze had more catches of 20-plus yards in 2023. He’s another home-run hitter added to the Miami mix.
GO DEEPER
Beat writers’ favorite 2024 NFL Draft picks: One player for every team
Rd. | Pick | Player | Pos. | School |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
19 |
Jared Verse |
Edge |
|
2 |
39 |
Braden Fiske |
DT |
|
3 |
83 |
Blake Corum |
RB |
|
3 |
99 |
Kamren Kinchens |
S |
|
5 |
144 |
Brennan Jackson |
Edge |
|
6 |
196 |
Tyler Davis |
DT |
|
6 |
209 |
Joshua Karty |
K |
|
6 |
213 |
Jordan Whittington |
WR |
|
6 |
217 |
Beaux Limmer |
C |
|
7 |
254 |
KT Leveston |
G |
Favorite pick: Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State
The Rams will get steady production from their Day 2 picks (specifically, Braden Fiske and Blake Corum), but adding Verse is a massive upgrade to their pass rush. His relentless energy stands out and often leads to production, as he uses his heavy hands to wear down blocks and reach the quarterback. As the Rams adjust to a post-Aaron Donald era, adding a presence like Verse is a good start.
How it started. How it’s going. pic.twitter.com/FSxZ7dE4Ri
— UAlbany Football (@UAlbanyFootball) April 26, 2024
Day 3 pick who could surprise: Brennan Jackson, DL, Washington State
Although he isn’t a bendy rusher and his stiffness stands out, Jackson is an urgent competitor with a nonstop motor. His physicality, play strength and pursuit to the football really jump off the film and will serve him well.
Rd. | Pick | Player | Pos. | School |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
31 |
Ricky Pearsall |
WR |
|
2 |
64 |
Renardo Green |
CB |
|
3 |
86 |
Dominick Puni |
G |
|
4 |
124 |
Malik Mustapha |
S |
|
4 |
129 |
Isaac Guerendo |
RB |
|
4 |
135 |
Jacob Cowing |
WR |
|
6 |
215 |
Jarrett Kingston |
G |
|
7 |
251 |
Tatum Bethune |
LB |
Favorite pick: Ricky Pearsall, WR, Florida
This is a fun pairing because of Pearsall’s versatility to play across the formation. With his ball skills and savvy, the former Florida pass catcher will develop quick chemistry with QB Brock Purdy and make an impact in Year 1. I also really liked the pick of Dominick Puni in the third round — he will have a chance to become the long-term future at center.
Day 3 pick who could surprise: Malik Mustapha, S, Wake Forest
My No. 85 player, Mustapha isn’t a proven playmaker in coverage (which is ultimately why he lasted until the fourth round), but he is an outstanding run defender who won’t make costly mistakes in coverage. He reminds me a lot of Jordan Whitehead and could fight for a spot on defense as the 49ers reshuffle their safety position over the next year or two.
Rd. | Pick | Player | Pos. | School |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
7 |
JC Latham |
OT |
|
2 |
38 |
T’Vondre Sweat |
DT |
|
4 |
106 |
Cedric Gray |
LB |
|
5 |
146 |
Jarvis Brownlee Jr. |
CB |
|
6 |
182 |
Jha’Quan Jackson |
WR |
|
7 |
242 |
James Williams |
S |
|
7 |
252 |
Jaylen Harrell |
Edge |
Favorite pick: JC Latham, OT, Alabama
The Titans haven’t minced words — they believe Latham is their present and future left tackle. Yes, there is some projection involved, considering he was a right tackle in college, but Latham has the talent to play anywhere on the offensive line. His play strength jumps out immediately as something that sets him apart.
Day 3 pick who could surprise: Jha’Quan Jackson, WR, Tulane
The Titans have plenty of bodies on the wide receiver depth chart, but I like Jackson’s chances to stand out in camp and gradually earn more playing time. He brings route instincts and outstanding speed to create from the slot, adding value as a returner on special teams.
Rd. | Pick | Player | Pos. | School |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
32 |
Xavier Legette |
WR |
|
2 |
46 |
Jonathon Brooks |
RB |
|
3 |
72 |
Trevin Wallace |
LB |
|
4 |
101 |
Ja’Tavion Sanders |
TE |
|
5 |
157 |
Chau Smith-Wade |
CB |
|
6 |
200 |
Jaden Crumedy |
DT |
|
7 |
240 |
Michael Barrett Jr. |
LB |
Favorite pick: Jonathan Brooks, RB, Texas
No disrespect to Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard, but upgrading the run game was clearly a priority for the Panthers on draft weekend. They did that by grabbing the top back in the draft. Expected to be cleared in July from the ACL injury he suffered last season, Brooks should help make life easier on Bryce Young, especially given his pass-catching skills out of the backfield.
Day 3 pick who could surprise: Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE, Texas
The Panthers returned to Austin in the fourth round to add another promising piece on offense. Tommy Tremble and Ian Thomas have been OK options at tight end, but adding an athletic joker like Sanders will give the group another layer. He is a true three-level receiving threat, similar to Gerald Everett.
GO DEEPER
NFL Draft 2024 Round 1 grades: Falcons, Broncos get C’s for Penix, Nix; Bears earn two A’s
Rd. | Pick | Player | Pos. | School |
---|---|---|---|---|
2 |
42 |
Kamari Lassiter |
CB |
|
2 |
59 |
Blake Fisher |
OT |
|
3 |
78 |
Calen Bullock |
S |
|
4 |
123 |
Cade Stover |
TE |
|
6 |
188 |
Jamal Hill |
LB |
|
6 |
205 |
Jawhar Jordan |
RB |
|
7 |
238 |
Solomon Byrd |
Edge |
|
7 |
247 |
Marcus Harris |
DT |
|
7 |
249 |
LaDarius Henderson |
G |
Favorite pick: Kamari Lassiter, CB, Georgia
The Texans didn’t have a draft pick in the top 40, putting them at a disadvantage for these rankings. They did, however, draft two promising players in the second round: Lassiter and Blake Fisher. Although several teams were concerned about his lack of speed, Lassiter’s tape shows a tough, competitive player — and it was clear DeMeco Ryans saw the same thing.
Day 3 pick who could surprise: Cade Stover, TE, Ohio State
After their rookie quarterback had a record-setting season, what could the Texans do to help him continue to climb? Adding his college tight end is one idea. Stover might not truly have an A-level trait, but he is well-rounded as an athlete, pass catcher and blocker.
Rd. | Pick | Player | Pos. | School |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
23 |
Brian Thomas Jr. |
WR |
|
2 |
48 |
Maason Smith |
DT |
|
3 |
96 |
Jarrion Jones |
CB |
|
4 |
114 |
Javon Foster |
OT |
|
4 |
116 |
Jordan Jefferson |
DT |
|
5 |
153 |
Deantre Prince |
CB |
|
5 |
167 |
Keilan Robinson |
RB |
|
6 |
212 |
Cam Little |
K |
|
7 |
236 |
Myles Cole |
Edge |
Favorite pick: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
I was underwhelmed by the Jaguars’ draft haul in Rounds 2-7, but I love what they did in Round 1, trading back and adding a high-ceiling receiver. After the Jaguars lost Calvin Ridley this offseason, they reexamined their options and were able to land Thomas, who has both size and speed. His route running is a work in progress, but that is due more to inexperience than lack of ability or know-how.
Brian Thomas Jr. film? Brian Thomas Jr. film!@BrianThomas_11 | #DUUUVAL
— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) April 27, 2024
Day 3 pick who could surprise: Javon Foster, OT, Missouri
Foster was a worthwhile swing to take, even if offensive tackle isn’t a glaring need for this team. The Detroit native needs to continue honing his footwork and technique, but he moves well with the length and play strength to match up in the NFL. Foster can be a valuable swing tackle — and, down the line, maybe more.
Rd. | Pick | Player | Pos. | School |
---|---|---|---|---|
2 |
54 |
Mike Hall Jr. |
DT |
|
3 |
85 |
Zak Zinter |
G |
|
5 |
156 |
Jamari Thrash |
WR |
|
6 |
206 |
Nathaniel Watson |
LB |
|
7 |
227 |
Myles Harden |
CB |
|
7 |
243 |
Jowon Briggs |
DT |
Favorite pick: Jamari Thrash, WR, Louisville
With limited draft capital (including zero picks in the top 50), it was going to be tough for the Browns to rank very high on this list. They drafted two risky, yet promising players on Day 2 (Mike Hall Jr. and Zak Zinter), but their third pick was probably my favorite of the bunch. Thrash is a twitchy athlete with natural receiving instincts that serve him well as a three-level threat.
Day 3 pick who could surprise: Nathaniel Watson, LB, Mississippi State
The Browns added Jordan Hicks and Devin Bush this offseason, but the future of the mike LB position is a question mark. Watson might be able to fill that role, because of his quick-reaction skills and tackling ability — he racked up 250 total tackles over the last two seasons. That quickness downhill allowed him to make numerous plays at the line or in the backfield.
GO DEEPER
Browns NFL draft wrap-up: Takeaways and analysis on Cleveland’s picks and process
Rd. | Pick | Player | Pos. | School |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
12 |
Bo Nix |
QB |
|
3 |
76 |
Jonah Elliss |
Edge |
|
4 |
102 |
Troy Franklin |
WR |
|
5 |
145 |
Kris Abrams-Draine |
CB |
|
5 |
147 |
Audric Estime |
RB |
|
7 |
235 |
Devaughn Vele |
WR |
|
7 |
256 |
Nick Gargiulo |
C |
Favorite pick: Jonah Elliss, Edge, Utah
The Broncos have a glut of pass rushers in their rotation, but Elliss makes the unit even stronger. Although he was a little “out of sight, out of mind” this process after undergoing shoulder surgery in the fall, he is a disruptive presence with upfield explosion and violent hands.
Day 3 pick who could surprise: Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon
Although I wasn’t a fan of what the Broncos did in the first round, reuniting Franklin with his college quarterback is smart drafting. Franklin, who has inconsistencies in his game, was overrated by many throughout the process, but there’s a good chance he winds up looking like a steal. He has legit speed before and after the catch and can make an immediate impact as a rookie.
Rd. | Pick | Player | Pos. | School |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
8 |
Michael Penix Jr. |
QB |
|
2 |
35 |
Ruke Orhorhoro |
DT |
|
3 |
74 |
Bralen Trice |
Edge |
|
4 |
109 |
Brandon Dorlus |
DT |
|
5 |
143 |
JD Bertrand |
LB |
|
6 |
186 |
Jase McClellan |
RB |
|
6 |
187 |
Casey Washington |
WR |
|
6 |
197 |
Zion Logue |
DT |
Favorite pick: Brandon Dorlus, DL, Oregon
When revisiting this list in a few years, I might be completely wrong about the Falcons. Someone has to finish last, though, and the Michael Penix Jr. pick made it pretty easy. Though I am a fan of Ruke Orhorhoro, Dorlus in the fourth round was my favorite pick of this haul. He throws everything he has at blockers and offers the skill set to line up both inside and outside.
Day 3 pick who could surprise: JD Bertrand, LB, Notre Dame
A player with impeccable intangibles, Bertrand has the football character that endeared him to several teams throughout the process. But he also has on-field skills that suggest he can stick and make an impact. His instincts and quick trigger allow him to close on the football.
(Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic; Photos of Terrion Arnold, Jayden Daniels and Rome Odunze: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)
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