Have Nottingham Forest worked out a foolproof method of beating the Premier League’s ‘Big Six’?

Tuesday’s 1-0 victory against Manchester United took them to 18 points from a possible 30 in their head-to-head encounters with the Premier League’s historical and financial giants so far this season.

Of the division’s other 14 clubs, only Brighton and Hove Albion can match Forest’s rate of success against Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur this season, and crucially, those points have put Forest into an extremely strong position in the race for Champions League qualification.

But whereas Brighton often go toe-to-toe stylistically with their more illustrious opponents, the manner in which Forest have achieved their results is even more remarkable.

Nuno Espirito Santo’s side rarely dominate the ball — their 32 per cent average possession is the lowest of any team in these matches. They also create relatively little — no side has a lower average xG in fixtures against the ‘Big Six’ — and they press less intensely than any other side in the division.

So how, despite seemingly lacking the hallmarks of a successful modern side, have they done it? Let’s break it down.

Nuno celebrates with Anthony Elanga after the victory against Manchester United in midweek (Michael Steele/Getty Images)

While Forest have admittedly created little in ‘Big Six’ encounters, they have been highly effective at stifling their opponents at the other end. Among all games involving ‘Big Six’ teams this season, Forest’s fixtures have the lowest average combined xG at just 2.3. In matches like these where opportunities are at a premium, the opening goal becomes all the more decisive — and Forest have developed a knack for striking first, scoring the opener in 24 of their 30 league matches, more than any other side in 2024-25.

Their ability to restrain opposition attacks stems from a combination of a compact shape, direct approach, and the speed of their transitions. The results are a record of just one goal conceded in five home games against the ‘Big Six’ so far this season, with just Chelsea to come.

Chance creation from fast breaks is a key feature of many ‘Big Six’ teams — five of the six rank in the top six for xG from counter-attacks (Manchester City being the exception, with their more methodical build-up). But Forest rarely overcommit in possession and therefore find themselves less exposed than most teams — shown by the fact they have conceded the second-lowest xG from fast breaks in the Premier League this season.

A big reason for that is the discipline of their midfield pivots — typically Elliot Anderson and Nicolas Dominguez — who tend to hold their positions rather than making late runs into the box. Data from Footovision shows that the average distance between Forest’s midfield and defensive lines in these games is just 11.6 metres — the lowest of any team against ‘Big Six’ opposition.

That compactness carries over to their out-of-possession structure too, except here Nuno Espirito Santo generally instructs his front four to push high, apply pressure and block passing lanes, while the midfield stays deeper to provide cover.

Below is a typical example against Manchester City, where the front four are engaged in disrupting their opponent’s build-up, yet there is a large space in behind with the midfield opting to stay back and provide additional protection. The distance between Forest’s attacking and midfield lines is the sixth-highest in the league, evidence of this defined split of roles: Forest’s attackers stay high, the rest of the team stay as compact as possible.

When City do manage to play through the initial press, Forest retreat swiftly into a low block, leaving only talisman Chris Wood ahead of the ball.

This tight defensive shape frustrates even the best sides, and they often resort to attempting low-quality chances from distance. The graphic below shows where ‘Big Six’ teams are shooting from against Forest compared to other opponents. Shots from outside the box are more common, particularly in the left channel where the figure of 13 per cent is significantly higher than six per cent elsewhere.

Plenty of left-sided attempts were on show when Manchester United came to the City Ground this week, with Alejandro Garnacho a repeat offender.

Forest’s narrow structure often encourages switches of play, and here Dalot successfully finds Garnacho with a crossfield pass. But as the second slide shows, by the time Garnacho manoeuvres himself into a shooting position, Forest have bodies back in position cutting off shooting angles, and the Argentinian winger fires a wayward effort into the stands.

This defensive discipline isn’t just reserved for the big occasions — it’s something Forest have improved across the board. The average distance of shots faced has increased each season, and the jump this campaign is particularly notable.

But Nottingham Forest’s impressive points haul hasn’t come solely from a disciplined defensive setup — they’ve also needed their forwards to deliver at the other end.

Before Forest’s 1-0 home win over Manchester City, Pep Guardiola described Callum Hudson-Odoi, Anthony Elanga, Wood, and Morgan Gibbs-White as “exceptional players.” That assessment proved prophetic when Hudson-Odoi netted a late winner for Forest. 

Hudson-Odoi scores against Manchester City in March 2025 (Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)

Each of Forest’s attacking quartet brings something different to the table, but their skill sets complement each other effectively to provide a vital creative edge — particularly during attacking transitions, which have been a consistent source of goals against ‘Big Six’ opposition.

Although Forest often find themselves outnumbered when they break due to their defensive priorities, they consistently punch above their weight thanks to Elanga and Hudson-Odoi’s ball-carrying threat, Gibbs-White’s creativity, and Wood’s clinical finishing.

This counter-attacking prowess was on full display during Forest’s 1-0 win at Anfield earlier in the season — their first there since 1969. The winning goal began deep in their own half, where Forest regained possession before Gibbs-White picked out Elanga with a smart around-the-corner pass into the right channel.

Elanga then surged forward and delivered a pinpoint cross-field ball to Hudson-Odoi on the opposite flank, who cut inside and curled a composed finish beyond Alisson.

Trademark Callum Hudson-Odoi 🤌

Our winning goal at Anfield 😍 pic.twitter.com/bfYzP75kbI

— Nottingham Forest (@NFFC) September 14, 2024

Hudson-Odoi’s clinical strike came from a low-percentage opportunity, and it would be remiss not to acknowledge the role of fortune in Forest’s season.

They’ve scored 50 goals from an expected goals tally of just 38 — the biggest over-performance in the division. While consistently taking the lead speaks to their quality, doing so as frequently as they have also enables them to execute their game plan more effectively, maintaining that compact shape rather than being forced to chase games.

Still, Forest have earned their share of good fortune this season. Their standout performances against the league’s most established sides have showcased the qualities that justify their lofty position in the table.

Nuno’s team may not play like a modern super club — but when facing teams that do, they’ve consistently found a way to thrive.

(Top photo: David Rogers/Getty Images)