Commentary: Expanded playoffs will provide MLB with competitive balance reform

Of all of the non-competitive nonsense of the previous few years, the blatant tanking was not probably the most odious. Groups corresponding to the Baltimore Orioles and Pittsburgh Pirates didn’t conceal their technique. They weren’t attempting to win, they usually had been so good at being dangerous that one participant wouldn’t have made a distinction.

No, probably the most distasteful technique went one thing like this: We may spend some prospects or {dollars} in attempting to win a wild-card spot, however all that for a one-game playoff? Lose, and we’re finished. Win, and we face the Dodgers, after which we’re all however finished.

Let’s deconstruct that: We’re in place to make the playoffs, and one participant may make a distinction, however why hassle? We’re in all probability not going to final very lengthy within the playoffs even when we get there, after which we’re out the prospects or {dollars}.

Followers need hope and religion and leisure, not threat administration. For all of the lockout-induced discuss of a draft lottery and income sharing and the posh tax, the one biggest step towards aggressive steadiness within the new collective bargaining settlement is that this: Two extra spots within the postseason event.

In every of the final eight years, a special crew has emerged because the champion. Now, the champion should survive a 12-team event as a substitute of a 10-team event, and even one of the best groups over a 162-game season may very well be eradicated by dropping 3 times in 5 video games.

For fan bases outdoors Los Angeles and New York, the Goliath-like payrolls of the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets might be irritating. However that ought to not obscure the extra pertinent reality that payrolls, and for that matter information, assure nothing as soon as the postseason begins.

The Dodgers have a 99.6% probability of constructing the playoffs, in response to the chances posted Wednesday on Baseball Prospectus. They’ve an 18.1% probability of successful the World Sequence.

In different phrases: In a statistical simulation, play out this season 10 instances, and a crew not named the Dodgers wins the World Sequence eight instances. In the actual world, the Dodgers have made 9 consecutive postseason appearances, and a crew not named the Dodgers has gained eight instances.

“Simply since you’re one of the best crew doesn’t imply you’re the crew that all the time wins,” Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich stated.

Nobody holds a parade for the crew with one of the best file within the common season, or with the very best payroll. (Additionally, nobody holds a parade for the crew that acquired probably the most bang for its payroll buck. The purpose of the train is to win the World Sequence.)

During the last 20 years, the crew with the very best payroll has gained the World Sequence two instances — and missed the playoffs solely 3 times.

The crew with one of the best file within the common season has gained the World Sequence 5 instances — however a wild-card crew has gained six instances. Now, there are two extra wild-card spots.

“When you get into the playoffs, it’s actually who’s sizzling, who’s wholesome, who’s enjoying properly,” Yelich stated. “You simply by no means know what can occur.”

The Dodgers gained 106 video games final yr. Their new first baseman, Freddie Freeman, performed for the crew that eradicated the Dodgers.

“Simply have a look at the Braves,” Freeman stated. “We gained 88 video games, however we had been the most popular crew going into the playoffs.”

The Braves didn’t have a file above .500 on any day final July, however they had been shut sufficient to warrant buying and selling for outfielders Joc Pederson, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler and Adam Duvall that month. In November, that 88-win crew had a parade.

“I believe including two extra groups helps,” Freeman stated. “It is going to maintain extra fan bases in it.

“Two extra groups in, and that’s doubtlessly six to eight extra groups which might be on the bubble which may truly go for it on the deadline, and commerce for a man that’s making $10 million.”

Angels first baseman Jared Walsh pointed to the Brewers, who’ve made 4 consecutive postseason appearances, as a crew that has confirmed that pennant rivalry doesn’t require a stratospheric payroll.

“It was, like, the Yankees have a $200-whatever million payroll, however I believe the sport has finished a reasonably good job of staying aggressive,” stated Walsh, the Angels’ participant consultant. “That’s what we would like.”

Pitcher Brent Suter, the Brewers’ participant consultant, stated what the gamers needed was to incentivize competitors for higher-payroll and lower-payroll groups.

On the decrease finish, groups can compete for 2 extra tickets into the playoffs. The excuse of “why hassle if we may lose in a single recreation?” is gone, for the reason that one-game wild-card playoff isn’t any extra. Each first-round sequence is best-of-three.

On the larger finish, groups can compete for the 2 first-round byes in every league, and with that the chance to keep away from that best-of-three sequence.

“I hope it was sufficient to offer the small- and mid-market groups some ammo, and to offer some added incentive to the big-market groups to go at it yearly,” Suter stated. “For each crew to attempt to win yearly is what we had been attempting to do.”

The homeowners proposed a 14-team postseason, which Suter stated might need incentivized “a race to the center” by devaluing the common season and admitting .500 groups into the playoffs too typically.

“Fourteen would have been a bit a lot,” Freeman stated. “We might have changed into basketball.”

And, from an area angle, yet one more playoff crew within the American League provides the Angels yet one more probability to get Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani into the postseason. The Angels couldn’t get into the 16-team pandemic playoffs of 2020, however spring is about hope and religion, and higher pitching.

“I believe the playoff format this yr goes to be tremendous attention-grabbing, with a pair extra groups,” Walsh stated. “Hopefully, we sneak in there and go on one other run.”