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A Lions-Chiefs Super Bowl? Mahomes reclaiming MVP? The Athletic staff’s NFL predictions for 2024

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A Lions-Chiefs Super Bowl? Mahomes reclaiming MVP? The Athletic staff’s NFL predictions for 2024

The 2024 season is here. The Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs get things started tonight, followed by a Friday night matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles.

With no time to waste, let’s look at The Athletic’s NFL staff picks for MVP, Super Bowl champion and more.

Forty-two staff members responded (some opting not to answer everything, so there aren’t always 42 responses). Here’s what they think.

Patrick Mahomes has already won the award twice — in 2018 and 2022 — so why not a third time while the Kansas City Chiefs try to three-peat? Our staff overwhelmingly picked the soon-to-be 29-year-old quarterback to do just that.

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While quarterbacks dominated our MVP voting, they took a back seat in this category. Tyreek Hill finished fourth in the AP Offensive Player of the Year voting two seasons ago and was runner-up last season when he led the league with 1,799 receiving yards, 13 TDs and a career-best 112.4 receiving yards per game. Our staff thinks he’ll continue his dominance catching passes from Tua Tagovailoa in Mike McDaniel’s offense in Miami.

In his three NFL seasons, Micah Parsons has finished second, second and third in Defensive Player of the Year voting. His sack totals have inched up every year — 13 to 13 1/2 to 14 — and signs point to the former Penn State star linebacker breaking through in 2024. Myles Garrett won it last season after a 14-sack campaign that followed five consecutive double-digit sack seasons. Entering the season, it looks like a Parsons-Garrett battle and we’ll get to see them on the same field Sunday when the Cowboys visit the Browns.

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Six quarterbacks were selected within the first 12 picks of the 2024 NFL Draft and three are among the five rookies receiving votes from our staff in this category. No. 1 pick Caleb Williams received 31 of 42 total votes. Expectations are high for the Bears’ quarterback, to say the least.

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As long as Mahomes is in Kansas City, this feels like the safest choice. The Chiefs won the past two Super Bowls, three of the past five and have played in four of the last five. Mahomes was named MVP in each of the Chiefs’ Super Bowl victories. The Bengals and Texans both received four votes. Cincinnati lost the 2021 Super Bowl to the Los Angeles Rams and the Texans have not reached a conference title game since joining the league in 2002.

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The Lions made the playoffs last season for the first time since 2016 and reached the NFC Championship Game — they lost 34-31 to the 49ers — for the first time since 1991. Can Dan Campbell get Detroit to its first Super Bowl in franchise history? The Packers and 49ers won’t make it easy, according to our staff.

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Surprise … it’s the Chiefs. OK, that’s not really a surprise. But that’s what happens when you win back-to-back Super Bowls and have Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Chris Jones on your side. The 49ers finished with the second-most votes, fitting after they lost to the Chiefs in overtime in last season’s Super Bowl.

Kansas City occupied the three top vote-getting matchups and received votes against six different opponents. But our staff likes the Chiefs-Lions showdown most, followed by Chiefs-Packers and a Chiefs-49ers rematch. The top non-Chiefs Super Bowls? Texans vs. Eagles and Bengals vs. Lions.

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NFL Hope-O-Meter results: Ranking fans’ optimism for all 32 teams

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What they said

“Mike McCarthy. McCarthy has proven he can win in the regular season with three straight 12-5 seasons. But that regular-season success hasn’t translated to the playoffs. If that doesn’t change, the coach of the Cowboys will.” — Dan Duggan, Giants writer

“Nick Sirianni. When you fire and replace both of your coordinators, the pressure is now on you. It’s win or be fired yourself.” — Adam Jahns, Bears writer

“Robert Saleh. He’s entering his fourth year in New York with an 18-33 record. Saleh’s personality and perch in the league’s most high-profile city give him more cache than his results have earned. With Aaron Rodgers back from injury, Saleh and the Jets are out of excuses. If this team doesn’t make a run, there will be major changes in New York.” — Josh Kendall, Falcons writer

“Sean McDermott. He only gets so many shots with Josh Allen to prove he can get the Bills back to the Super Bowl.” — Paul Dehner Jr., Bengals writer

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2024 NFL win total projections for all 32 teams: Experts react to our model

“Mike McCarthy: He’s got 36 regular-season wins to one playoff win over the last three seasons and is on an expiring contract with Bill Belichick as a coaching free agent. That’s a lot of pressure.” — Jeff Howe, NFL writer

“Robert Saleh. If he can’t win this season with that defense and a healthy Aaron Rodgers, he may not be long for his job.” — Adam Hirshfield, NFL editor

“Nick Sirianni. Was last season’s second-half collapse a fluke or a sign of a bigger problem? The Eagles are talented, but a slow start will turn up the volume and heat on the man in charge.” — Doug Haller, Cardinals writer

“Dave Canales. He’s the least proven head coach in the league in terms of overall track record, which means he has the most to prove. There are other coaches facing greater pressure this season, but they are much more seasoned/proven.” — Mike Sando, NFL writer

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“Dennis Allen. The Saints are on the short list of middling teams that could bottom out this year as some of their top talent is getting older and a bit worse. They have issues at quarterback and may struggle on both the offensive and defensive lines. Things seem a bit stale in New Orleans, and Allen needs to prove that isn’t the case.” — Joe Buscaglia, Bills writer

What they said

“Arizona. Last year you saw the culture set, now the talent level has risen for a full season with Kyler Murray.” — Dehner

“The Falcons are in a really good place. The mood around the building with Raheem Morris is through the roof, and Kirk Cousins and OC Zac Robinson should really help the skill players shine. They’re also in a very winnable division.” — Howe

“Tennessee Titans, because after an aggressive offseason following another double-digit loss season, they will force their way into contention in the AFC South and have a shot at the playoffs.” — Mike Jones, NFL writer

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“Denver Broncos. I’m a believer that the Sean Payton-Bo Nix pairing will work well. I don’t love the skill-position pieces around Nix, but it’s the first time since Payton coached Drew Brees that I can see him having full confidence in a quarterback. I could envision a second-place finish in the AFC West and a possible wild-card berth.” — Larry Holder, NFL writer

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“The Chargers — they have the talent to turn things around and they have a head coach who knows how to win.” — Dan Pompei, NFL writer

“Cardinals. I’m reaching deep for this one because anyone can say the Bears. But the Cardinals could be a sneaky team for the biggest turnaround even if they’ll still be far from a serious contender. They were more competitive than the typical 4-13 team in Jonathan Gannon’s first season as head coach. They also were 1-8 without Kyler Murray and 3-5 after he returned to the lineup. A healthy Murray combined with Marvin Harrison Jr. could turn things around fast for the Cardinals.” — Duggan

“Seattle Seahawks. Geno Smith should have a nice rebound of a season and the Seahawks defense should be much improved with more youth under new head coach Mike Macdonald. The Seahawks also have a very favorable schedule, which should allow them to make a run to make the playoffs.” — Nate Taylor, Chiefs writer

“Falcons. Atlanta gets a new coach with a strong defensive pedigree and leadership skills in Raheem Morris, and a proven quarterback in Kirk Cousins to pair with ascending playmakers Bijan Robinson and Drake London. It also helps that the Falcons play in the NFC South.” — Joe Person, Panthers writer

“Washington. The Commanders only won four games last year. I think they could double that win total and maybe compete for the NFC East title if things go poorly for the Eagles and Cowboys. Dan Quinn ends up improving the defense and Jayden Daniels shows they have a franchise QB.” — Jon Machota, Cowboys writer

(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; photos: Todd Rosenberg, Cooper Neill, Kara Durrette / Getty Images)

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Caitlin Clark’s return falls flat after Fever coach limits her in loss to shorthanded Sparks

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Caitlin Clark’s return falls flat after Fever coach limits her in loss to shorthanded Sparks

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All eyes were on Caitlin Clark on Wednesday night as she made her anticipated return from injury in a road matchup in Los Angeles.

But instead of a triumphant comeback, the Fever spent the entire night chasing the Sparks as Clark’s rough return fueled a 106-92 rout.

The superstar never found a groove, looking completely out of sync in her return from a back injury.

STEPHANIE WHITE GIVES CAITLIN CLARK STATUS UPDATE AHEAD OF FEVER-SPARKS, BUT HER NEXT MOVE RAISES QUESTIONS

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Caitlin Clark huddles with teammates as the Indiana Fever battle the Sparks. (Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images) ((Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images))

Much of that disjointed performance falls squarely on head coach Stephanie White, who kept Clark on a ridiculously tight leash by limiting her to just 16 minutes. The stop-and-go approach could have sabotaged any chance for the phenom to establish a rhythm.

Clark finished with just 9 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists. Her minus-16 plus-minus told the story.

The Los Angeles Sparks were severely shorthanded, taking the floor without stars Kelsey Plum and Cameron Brink.

MERCURY’S NOW-DELETED SOCIAL MEDIA POST MOCKING CAITLIN CLARK DRAWS SCRUTINY AFTER STAR’S INJURY

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Yet while a depleted Sparks roster played to win, Indiana spent the night over-managing its biggest asset.

With Clark on a minutes restriction and Aliyah Boston out of the lineup, Kelsey Mitchell was forced to shoulder the entire offensive burden.

Mitchell did her part, pouring in 29 points while shooting 5-of-9 from beyond the arc.

Caitlin Clark orchestrates the Fever offense as Indiana battles the Los Angeles Sparks in primetime action. (Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images) ((Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images))

But one hot hand couldn’t stop an efficient LA squad.

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The Sparks shot 45% from three-point range, going 9-of-20 from deep to cruise to the 106-92 victory.

White’s next move is to sit Clark against the Mercury on Thursday while Boston returns.

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After Wednesday’s loss to a shorthanded Sparks team, it’s fair to question whether Indiana’s cautious approach is working. The Fever dropped to 12-9.

Caitlin Clark and Dearica Hamby face off as Fever and Sparks battle at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. (Photo by Tyler Ross/NBAE via Getty Images) ((Photo by Tyler Ross/NBAE via Getty Images))

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Mookie Betts’ eighth-inning single gives Dodgers the win over the Rockies

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Mookie Betts’ eighth-inning single gives Dodgers the win over the Rockies

Mookie Betts’ first hit this series against the Rockies couldn’t have come at a more opportune time. With the crack of the ball against his bat, Tommy Edman scored from third, giving the Dodgers the lead.

And as Betts reached first, he pointed to Freddie Freeman, whose single put Edman in scoring position. It had taken a team effort to overcome another middling start from Roki Sasaki, and Betts, who had little to show before his game-winning hit, took the chance to highlight the joint contribution in the Dodgers’ 4-3 rubber-match win over Colorado (38-56).

“It feels great,” Betts said of his nine-pitch battle. “Helping the boys win, that’s really all it is. We play the game to win, and coming through in a big moment is kind of what, when you’re a kid, playing in the backyard, getting that hit is what you always strive to do, and fortunately, I was able to do it.”

Given a three-run lead in the first inning, brought to the Dodgers by a wild pitch and Kyle Tucker’s two-run, line-drive single to left field, Sasaki seemed set up for success.

Still, he gave away the lead as quickly as it came. In the second inning, he left a fastball too far over the plate, and third baseman Kyle Karros drove the ball over the left-center wall. The slider he dealt two batters later to second baseman Edouard Julien also crossed the zone too far over the plate, and Julien rounded the bases with another homer. In the third, a sacrifice fly by Mickey Moniak evened the scored, 3-3.

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Sasaki’s troubles this season have been hard to pin down since his last win on May 23, as Sasaki tries to claw back the triple-digit velocity that’s escaped him as of late.

Against the Rockies, his fastball topped out at 99.1 miles per hour before steadily dropping to 98. He had managed five strikeouts in his six innings when manager Dave Roberts replaced him with Jack Dreyer, though the three earned runs couldn’t be ignored.

But Roberts also acknowledged the possibility that the pitcher had been tipping his pitches, possibly since he was playing in Japan, and Sasaki has tried to address it after a three-inning, six-run start last week. Even if he had fully self-corrected, his control issues remain. In the third inning, he walked the tying runner, Brett Sullivan.

“I’ve been working on a lot of things like the tipping stuff,” Sasaki said through interpreter Kensuke Okubo. “Also, I need to make quality pitches.”

Sasaki regained some of his confidence in the fourth when he worked out of a two-base jam with two strikeouts and a flyball to right, something that didn’t go unnoticed by Roberts.

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“You can see the demeanor walking off the mound, the confidence,” Roberts said. “For me, it was more of let him end on a high note, feeling good about his outing, and then go from there.”

The Dodgers’ problems were compounded by Alex Call wasting the team’s two challenges in his at-bat in the first inning when the team had already taken the lead. And maybe it would’ve been excusable if Call had driven in the runners on first and second, but instead he ended the inning on a strikeout, stranding both. Roberts called the situation an “outlier” and didn’t feel as though he needed to have a conversation with Call regarding the situation.

After the three-run first, the Dodgers (61-33) remained hitless until Max Muncy laced a double down the right-field line in the sixth, though to little avail. As the innings ticked forward, Colorado’s chances seemed to increase. The Rockies hold the best league batting average (.297) in the eighth and ninth innings (the Dodgers are fourth with .268). And the Dodgers relievers, within the same constraints, have a 3.83 ERA — not bad, but not in the top 10 either.

Third baseman Max Muncy can’t get his glove on a line-drive double by Kyle Karros in the fourth inning.

(Gina Ferazzi/Los Angeles Times)

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So when Alex Vesia struggled against the Rockies in the eighth inning and Muncy suffered a throwing error, Colorado seemed in position to score with the bases loaded and one out. Vesia struck out TJ Rumfield and Edgardo Henriquez (4-0), his replacement, retired Karros on a fly ball to right.

After Betts’ single allowed the Dodgers to take the lead, Tanner Scott (13) shut down the Rockies with back-to-back strikeouts, avoiding the team’s eighth series loss of the season.

“Didn’t feel great,” Roberts said. “Fortunately, we won a series, but that’s not the kind of way you want to do it.”

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Justin Verlander announces he will retire after this season: ‘I’ve realized that time has come’

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Justin Verlander announces he will retire after this season: ‘I’ve realized that time has come’

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One of the greatest pitchers in the history of baseball will be hanging up his cleats after this season.

Three-time Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander announced on Wednesday that the 2026 season will be his last.

Amid an injury-riddled season with the Detroit Tigers, Verlander decided it’s time to go.

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Detroit Tigers pitcher Justin Verlander watches from the dugout during a game against the Chicago White Sox at Comerica Park in Detroit June 21, 2026. (David Rodriguez-Munoz/USA Today Network via Imagn Images)

“This season has challenged me in ways I haven’t experienced before, both physically and mentally. I’ve always believed that as long as I could compete at the level I expect of myself, I’d keep playing. I never wanted to retire because of a milestone, a number, or a date on the calendar. I wanted the game to tell me when it was time. Over the last several months, I’ve realized that time has come,” Verlander said in a social media post.

“While I’m fully committed to giving my team everything I have for the rest of this season, I’ve decided this will be my last. It’s fitting that I get to finish where it all started – with the Detroit Tigers, the organization that drafted me and gave me my first opportunity.”

Verlander inked a one-year deal with the Tigers, with whom he spent his first 12½ seasons before being traded to the Houston Astros, in the offseason. In Houston, he returned to dominance, winning both of his World Series titles and two of his Cy Young Awards.

“Baseball has given me more than I could have imagined. It taught me discipline, resilience, and the value of continuing to adapt and evolve. I’ve been fortunate to play with and against incredible players, for outstanding organizations, and compete in-front of fans who deeply appreciate the game,” Verlander added in his announcement.

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Justin Verlander of the Houston Astros celebrates after the Astros defeated the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 6 of the 2022 World Series at Minute Maid Park Nov. 5, 2022, in Houston, Texas. (Mary DeCicco/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

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“To every teammate, coach, player, clubhouse attendant, and fan who has been part of this journey – thank you. It’s been a privilege to share the field with you. To my family, especially my wife Kate, thank you for standing beside me through every season, every rehab, and every high and low. I couldn’t have done this without you. It’s time for the next chapter. But first, I’m excited to finish this season the only way I know how – with everything I’ve got.”

Verlander is the active leader with 3,554 strikeouts, which is good for eighth all-time. He needs 21 to surpass Don Sutton and 87 to pass Tom Seaver.

The 43-year-old made his MLB debut in 2005 and won the American League Rookie of the Year Award the following season in what was just a small glimpse of what was to come.

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Verlander was a Cy Young Award finalist on four other occasions, consistently near the top of the leaderboard in just about every pitching stat. MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred gave Verlander a legend’s exemption to this year’s Midsummer Classic, making him a 10-time All-Star.

One could argue that Verlander should have at least one more Cy Young Award on his mantle, but he is on the fast track to Cooperstown and very much in the conversation to join Mariano Rivera as the only player unanimously elected to the Hall of Fame.

Verlander’s best season came in 2022, when he pitched to a career-best 1.75 ERA along with a 0.829 WHIP. However, that came after he missed the entire 2021 season due to Tommy John surgery for an injury he suffered after pitching just one inning in the abbreviated 2020 season.

Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander throws against the Boston Red Sox during the first inning Aug. 22, 2023, in Houston.  (AP Photo/Michael Wyke)

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He won his first Cy Young Award in 2011, when he was also awarded the MVP Award, and his second in 2019. Verlander’s 11 seasons between his first and final Cy Young Awards are the second-most behind Roger Clemens, who had 18 seasons between his first and seventh.

Verlander led the majors in innings and WHIP four times while recording the most strikeouts in three seasons.

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