Trump early strategy targets state that hasn't gone red since Nixon

Former President Trump and Ohio Sen. JD Vance are planning a stop in Minnesota, a surprisingly close state that hasn’t gone to a Republican presidential candidate in 52 years.

Trump and Vance plan to make the trip to St. Cloud, Minnesota, on Saturday, the campaign announced Tuesday, with a Real Clear Politics report noting that Trump pollster John McLaughlin believes the state is in play.

McLaughlin believes Vance, who Trump announced as his running mate on the first day of the Republican National Convention last week, could help put Trump over the top in the state, with the Ohio native expected to have appeal to voters throughout the Midwest.

Trump narrowly lost the state to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016, coming up about 1.5% short. The former president’s 2020 performance against President Biden wasn’t as encouraging, with Trump losing Minnesota by about 7% that year.

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But polling shows signs that Minnesota, which hasn’t gone to a Republican presidential candidate since Richard Nixon in 1972, could be competitive once again in 2024. A June poll of likely voters in Minnesota conducted by the Star Tribune, MPR News and KARE 11, showed Trump trailing Biden by just 4% in the state, 45-41.

The Real Clear Politics polling average in the state is even slightly closer, with Trump coming in only 3 points behind Biden. One poll cited in the average, a Hill/Emerson poll, shows Trump and Biden tied in the typically dependably blue state.

The Trump campaign has become increasingly bullish that it can put more states in play in 2024, attempting to expand the map from the most heavily contested swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Minnesota and Virginia have been of particular interest to the campaign, which has insisted the two states could be winnable for the former president.

Like Minnesota, Trump has trended favorably in Virginia in recent weeks. The former president now holds a narrow lead in the state, the Real Clear Politics polling average shows, with the two most recently cited polls showing Trump up two and three points, respectively.

Former President Trump holds his first public campaign rally with his running mate, Sen. JD Vance, at the Van Andel Arena on July 20, 2024, in Grand Rapids, Michigan. (Bill Pugliano/Getty Images)

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Reached for comment by Fox News Digital, a Trump campaign spokesperson pointed to recent Emerson polling that shows Trump with a one-point lead in Minnesota. The spokesperson also noted that the campaign has opened eight new field offices in the state.

Trump has also mentioned Minnesota as a potential state he could grab, touting Vance’s Midwestern roots as a reason the state could be in play in November.

“J.D. has had a very successful business career in Technology and Finance, and now, during the Campaign, will be strongly focused on the people he fought so brilliantly for, the American Workers and Farmers in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Minnesota, and far beyond,” Trump said in a Truth Social post that announced Vance as his running mate.

But Trump and Vance’s trip to Minnesota comes amid a rapidly shifting race, with Biden announcing Sunday that he was dropping out. Biden immediately endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to take his place at the top of the ticket, spurring Democrats to rally around her.

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during an NCAA championship teams celebration on the South Lawn of the White House on July 22, 2024. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

Less polling has been done on how Trump would fare against Harris in battleground states, though the former president will hope to get a head start on taking the state with his trip on Saturday.

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.