West Virginia’s Chances of Making the NCAA Tournament Drop to 0.1%

A lot needed to happen for West Virginia down the stretch to be able to have a shot at making the NCAA Tournament. After last night’s head-scratching loss to Utah, the path just became even more difficult.

Because the Mountaineers now have a Quad 3 home loss on the resume, you’re likely looking at a situation where they have to bank on cutting down the nets in Kansas City a couple of weeks from now to punch their ticket.

Following their win over UCF, TeamRankings.com projected WVU’s magic number to get into the field at 24, which I thought was incredibly high. One miserable loss later, that win total seems spot on. The Mountaineers have five regular season games remaining and need eight wins to reach that 24 mark. To expect this team to sweep its upcoming two-game road trip, beat BYU, and then finish off sweeps against Kansas State and UCF, AND win three games in the Big 12 tournament is quite the ask.

Now, TeamRankings gives WVU just a 0.1% chance to secure an at-large bid, which is also the same percentage given for them to lock up an auto bid (aka winning the Big 12 tournament).

“I wouldn’t say devastation because the reality is you’re going to be on a plane on Friday,” Hodge said when asked if the timing of this loss adds to the devastation. “The gift and the curse, we talked about it, being in the Big 12 is you still have opportunities in front of you. Now, those opportunities can run out, and that’s a reality. But you still have opportunities, and you still have all your goals in front of you. That’s the truth. Two things can be true at once. You let a great opportunity slip tonight, that puts more pressure on your other opportunities. I think any messaging you have between now and Saturday is going to be trying to figure out how you play better for longer stretches where you don’t have the inconsistent pockets of putting yourself down 14.”

Hodge isn’t a fool. He’s well aware of how much this loss impacts his team’s chances. But the reality is, there are still five games left, and he’s technically right about everything still being in front of them. Now, there is zero margin for error at this point, but until they are mathematically eliminated, there is still hope.

Crazier things have happened in this sport. I mean, look at what NC State did just a few years ago. They were 17-14 entering the ACC Tournament, with their only way into the field being an ACC title, and they did it. Then, the Wolfpack carried that momentum into the tourney, reaching the Final Four.

Do I expect that to happen here? Absolutely not. But that’s why Hodge is saying everything is still in front of them. You’re not going to throw in the towel just because things look bleak. There’s a reason you play the games.