West Virginia
West Virginia vs. UCF Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 10-28-2023
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The UCF Golden Knights play host to the West Virginia Mountaineers in a Big 12 showdown on Saturday afternoon from FBC Mortgage Stadium. The Mountaineers started the season hot but have lost two in a row as they hit the road for this one. For the Knights, they bring in a lengthy losing streak themselves, with theirs sitting at four games. These two haven’t met recently and both will need a win to jump-start this new Big 12 series. Expect this to be an exciting showdown and one that could end up going either way.
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Mountaineers Hitting The Road
Just a few weeks ago, West Virginia had hopes of making the Big 12 title game, especially with how their schedule looked to be playing out. With two losses since, now they are simply looking to get back on the right track. The schedule doesn’t get a lot easier after this, especially with a trip to Oklahoma coming in a few weeks, and they find themselves underdogs in this one. They’ve only played three road games this season, having lost two of those, with a trip to Florida potentially being a challenge as well. UCF’s ability to run the ball and control the clock will be like looking in the mirror, which is likely to pose trouble for a team that usually has the ability to lean on winning in the trenches themselves. If they can limit scoring, that’ll be a great place to start, as the high-scoring games of the last few weeks has proven to be a struggle for them.
The Mountaineers have five players listed on their current injury report, with the secondary being most impacted, with a pair of safeties having been ruled out. Hudson Clement is doubtful, which is likely to be a blow to the passing attack as the team’s second-leading receiver. Injuries on both sides of the ball could prove to be trouble in this one.
The Mountaineers will be facing a troubled run defense and will be looking to continue to control the clock in this one. Given West Virginia is sitting 99th in the nation in passing and will be down a receiver, the run game seems like their best path to success. Garrett Greene (8 touchdowns, 2 interceptions) is efficient but it’ll fall on his legs and CJ Donaldson Jr. to control things. On the defensive side, Lee Kpogba (51 tackles) leads the way but will need plenty of help in the trenches to keep UCF off the field.
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Knights Coming Off Heartbreak
UCF remains winless in the Big 12 and last week saw them come closer than ever to taking down a big-time opponent. They gave Oklahoma all that they can handle, with a missed two-point conversion being the difference in this one. After back-to-back road games, as well as in three of the last four weeks, they’ll be thrilled to be back at home, where they’ve won two of three games on the season. They are touchdown favorites in this one, while having Cincinnati and Houston next on the schedule gives them a prime opportunity to get some wins and momentum going to close out the season. Bowl eligibility is still within reach but it’ll take a home win on Saturday to set that tone.
It helps that UCF only has one injury to worry about heading into this one, as their depth could come in handy in this one. Jordan Davis has been ruled out but given he has yet to make a catch this season, the offense should be able to move on successfully without him.
Much like their opponent, UCF will have a run-first focus in this one. They rank sixth in total offense and fifth in rushing nationally, showing last week against Oklahoma that they can find success even against some of the top teams. The passing game has even found success of late, ranked 39th nationally in passing. Having John Rhys Plumlee back in the fold certainly helps, while RJ Harvey and Johnny Richardson have combined for over 1,000 yards on the ground. This offense only continues to grow in balance, which will allow them to dominate and find success in this one on their way toward a win.
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West Virginia might not have enough to grab the win and come out on top but they have the gameplan to keep this one close. To start, both teams lean heavily on the ground game, which should limit the possessions and give the Mountaineers plenty of options at staying within striking distance in this one. The Knights continue to be without a Big 12 win and the physical nature of these games seems to be catching up with them. Given UCF’s struggles to stop the run, it gives the perfect opportunity for West Virginia to lean back on their own running game that helped propel them to success over the first few weeks of the season. The Knights are only 1-3 in their last four games ATS and while going back home should help them get the win, it won’t be enough for the Knight to cover the spread.
Prediction: West Virginia (+7)
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The tendencies of both these games is likely to cause possessions to be limited and this one being lower-scoring than expected. West Virginia has struggled in shootouts over the last few weeks and know that against a struggling run defense, will lean heavily on the ground game that led them to success to open the season. For UCF, it was clear against Oklahoma that this team can find success on the ground too. With two teams looking to control the clock, there are likely to be drawn out drives and struggles in the trenches by the offensive lines to set the tone. Prior to the last two weeks and getting drawn into passing games, the under was 3-0. For UCF, the under hit in their last game too. Expect points to be at a premium when these two square off.
Prediction: Under 58