West Virginia vs. Pittsburgh Prediction: Who Wins, and Why

The Backyard Brawl returns to the gridiron this weekend, and it should be a close one between teams looking to play into the upper echelons of their respective conferences, as Pittsburgh welcomes West Virginia in college football’s Week 3 action on Saturday.

Sitting at 1-1 after losing to Penn State in the opener before routing Albany last week, the Mountaineers won 9 games a year ago to pull head coach Neal Brown off the proverbial hot seat and winning games like this is important when looking at the schedule in the weeks ahead.

Pittsburgh has the look of an improved team coming off last season’s 3-9 disaster, marching out to a 2-0 start, and comes into this weekend with a 62-41-3 lead over West Virginia in this series that dates back to 1895.

West Virginia has won four of the last five meetings with Pittsburgh, but the rivalry was split the last two seasons, with the Mountaineers winning last season and the Panthers the year before.

What can we expect from the matchup? Here’s what you should watch for as West Virginia and Pittsburgh renew their rivalry in this Week 3 college football game, with our updated prediction.

1. Going deep. West Virginia has the capacity to run the ball successfully, but Pittsburgh could be vulnerable on the back end. The secondary has allowed 5 passes of over 30 yards and is surrendering more than 7 yards per attempt. Garrett Greene leads a cadre of receivers who can get separation on these defenders and set the tone early.

2. On the ground. Pittsburgh looks strong when defending against the rush and has allowed opponents to average just 2.4 yards per rushing attempt so far. But the Mountaineers have a strong offensive line that can create opportunities for talented backs like CJ Donaldson and Jahiem White, not to mention Greene himself, an agile runner with the football.

3. Pitt’s new QB. Alabama transfer Eli Holstein has been a revelation for the Panthers through two games, helping lead an offensive renaissance that resulted in this attack more than doubling its scoring output from a year ago, averaging more than 41 points per game. He can find throwing lanes with a battery of skilled targets against a West Virginia secondary allowing almost 10 yards per attempt in the air.

Lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

West Virginia: -2.5 (-110)
Pittsburgh: +2.5 (-110)

WVU to win: -128
Pitt to win: +106

Over 61.5 points: -115
Under 61.5 points: -105

This close line correctly suggests the game to be very evenly matched. Pittsburgh has the run-stop and the passing attack to pull it out, but West Virginia has the ground game to eat clock and move the chains.

Home field advantage plays a role — Pitt won at home two years ago — but the difference maker could be Pitt tailback Desmond Reid.

The 5-foot-8, 175-pounder leads college football with 244 all-purpose yards per game this season, is coming off a 254-yard effort against Cincinnati, and could be a matchup problem for the Mountaineers.

His consistent gains against a vulnerable West Virginia run-stop combined with Holstein and his receivers exploiting some center field gaps could prove to be the difference.

College Football HQ picks …

More … West Virginia vs. Pitt score prediction by expert football model

When: Sat., Sept. 14
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN2 network

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