West Virginia expert previews the Arizona football game, makes a score prediction

Part of the fun of moving to a new conference is getting to play teams you haven’t faced in a long time, or possibly ever. The latter is the case between Arizona and West Virginia, which have history in many sports but not football.

Saturday’s Big 12 matchup will be the first between the Wildcats and Mountaineers, a pair of 3-4 teams that find their respective seasons on the brink of collapse. A win for each would go a long way toward possibly righting the ship, while a loss for either might be the final nail in the coffin of a lost season.

To better understand these new conference opponent, we reached out to Michael Miller of SB Nation sister site The Smoking Musket for some insight and a score prediction. Below are his innovative answers to our formulaic questions:

AZ Desert Swarm: West Virginia’s four losses are to ranked teams, three of which are unbeaten this season, while its wins are against ones with a combined record of 8-13 including an FCS opponent. Is it that simple, or is there more to how this season has gone?

Michael Miller: “I wish I could say there’s more to it, but I’m really not sure there is, and it’s a bit of the overarching theme of Neal Brown’s tenure in Morgantown, where he’s currently 3-17 against ranked opponents. The loss to Pitt came after holding a 10-point lead with 4:55 to play, and up to that point, the Panthers had amassed a grand total of four yards in the second half. The Iowa State game was within reach at 14-10 at halftime until Garrett Greene threw two interceptions in the second half. It has just been missed opportunity after missed opportunity.”

Starting QB Garrett Greene was knocked out of the home loss to Kansas State, with Arizona native Nicco Marchiol stepping in. What’s Greene’s status for this game, and if he can’t go how does West Virginia’s game plan change?

“The official word from Neal Brown in his press conference on Monday is that it’s ‘too early to tell’ and that he’d be evaluated later this week after he sat the entirety of the second half against K-State with an “upper body injury,” which seems to be code for a concussion. If Garrett can’t go, which I don’t expect he will, I look for WVU to lean heavily on the run with CJ Donaldson and Jahiem White to try to grind out a win. Nicco has shown that he’s capable of running the offense while Greene is out but, while he can run when needed, he just doesn’t he doesn’t have the same explosiveness as Garrett.”

The Mountaineers have three players with at least 400 rushing yards, including the starting QB, and averages more than 200 yards per game on the ground. What makes this attack so effective?

“It’s the type of combination that West Virginia has had success with historically. Donaldson is a bigger back who can bruise you inside, while White is more of a speedster who can hit the edges. Then there’s Greene, who forces defenses to stay honest because of his ability to take off and make plays with his legs.”

Who are the top defensive players that Arizona needs to worry about, and what are West Virginia’s biggest strengths and weaknesses on that side of the ball?

“West Virginia’s front seven has been solid this season, particularly strong at stopping the run. They’ve held four teams to under 50 rushing yards in a half, including Kansas State, who only managed eight yards on the ground in the first half last week. Look out for defensive lineman TJ Jackson, a senior transfer from Troy, who is currently No. 16 in the country in tackles for loss per game (9.5 total) and linebacker Josiah Trotter, son of Philadelphia Eagles legend Jeremiah Trotter, who leads the team in total tackles.

“WVU’s issues on defense have, for the most part, been in the secondary. The Mountaineers are currently ranked 122nd nationally in 3rd down conversion defense and 110th in passing yards allowed. A free tip for Brent Brennan; just get yourself into 3rd and long situations. It tends to work out better.”

(Editor’s note: Arizona is 14 for 55 on third down when needing 7+ yards, so please disregard this Coach Brennan)

Neal Brown is 34-33 in six seasons in Morgantown. How safe is his job? Did winning nine games last year give him some extra rope?

“I think it gave him extra rope with the University, not so much with the fanbase. As I pointed out, he’s 3-17 against ranked opponents and it has really started to wear on the fans to the point some have started raising money to fly ‘Fire Neal Brown’ banners behind planes. He’s going to make it to the end of the season, at least, but I really don’t see him getting fired at all this year unless WVU completely collapses on the backend of the schedule.”

Try as we might, we couldn’t get either Rich Rodriguez or Kerr Kriisa to come to this game to serve as honorary captain, but each has a special place in our collective hearts? What’s your favorite Kerr or RichRod moment?

“I was in college for the height of the RichRod years, but I think my favorite happened during my senior year of high school when 2-4 West Virginia knocked off undefeated, No. 3 Virginia Tech in 2003 in Morgantown. I was in the stadium that night, and the pepper spray in the air will stick with me forever.

“If we’re talking RichRod specific moments, it’s this commercial:

Prediction time. Does Arizona snap its 3-game skid and move back to .500 or does West Virginia pick up its first win in the Grand Canyon State since 2015? Give us a score pick.

“Obviously I have to give the homer pick here and say West Virginia wins this in a close one, but I’m not telling you that with any real confidence. Let’s say WVU takes this one with a late touchdown on a long, grinding drive from CJ Donaldson to win 31-24.”