Score Predictions for West Virginia’s Senior Day Game vs. UCF

Picking up a win this weekend means the West Virginia Mountaineers are going bowling. It’s been an extremely disappointing season to this point, but WVU can put an end to their woes at home by taking down a UCF team that has lost six of its last seven.

Here is how we see this Saturday’s game going between WVU and UCF.

The challenge doesn’t get any easier this week for new WVU defensive coordinator Jeff Koonz, who will have to gameplan for the nation’s third-leading rusher, RJ Harvey. UCF is and always will be a run-first football team under Gus Malzahn, but they have found an answer at quarterback over the last couple of games with freshman Dylan Rizk, giving them more of a balanced approach.

For the most part this season, West Virginia has had success defending the run. They rank fifth in the Big 12 in run defense and 50th nationally in yards allowed per carry (4.0). Although Rizk opens up UCF’s offense, I still believe Malzahn will want to remain confident in his superstar running back and try to lean on WVU’s front. With less-than-ideal weather conditions expected to be in play, it should keep UCF from wanting to spin it a bunch, which is great news for a weak Mountaineer secondary.

Whether it was the season opener versus Penn State, the Backyard Brawl against Pitt, the Coal Rush game versus Iowa State, or another primetime game against Kansas State, WVU has not handled distractions all that well this season. Senior Day can certainly provide a lot of distractions with all of the emotions that go into it, but I believe Garrett Greene, Wyatt Milum, and Co. will walk out of Milan Puskar Stadium as winners.

I’m going with the Mountaineers in a high-scoring affair.

Prediction record: 6-4.

UCF may have found its footing with quarterback Dylan Rizk – the Knights’ fourth starting QB this season. Rizk has made the last two starts for a team looking to remain bowl eligible. The freshman threw for 294 yards and three touchdowns in his first career start and nearly pulled off the upset at Arizona State in game two. He’s been efficient in his passes, completing 74.6% of his passes.

The Knights have leaned on an effective rushing attack, ranking third nationally, and lead all Power Four programs, averaging 262.8 rushing yards per game.

Leading the UCF ground game is RJ Harvey. The senior has rushed for 1,328, ranking third nationally, with 19 touchdowns and was named a Doak Walker Award semifinalist for the second consecutive season.

Statistically, the West Virginia defense has been formidable against the run and is second in the Big 12 in rushing yards allowed per game at 126.8. However, last week against Baylor, the Mountaineers nearly allowed the Bears to reach their season average of 5.7 yards per carry, gaining 5.4 yards per rush. UCF is second in the country in runs of 10 yards or more with 86.

West Virginia was unable to keep pace with a surging Baylor offense last week at home and there is no indication they will be able slow the Knights down Saturday. The Mountaineers had an opportunity for a game turning interception against Baylor but what has occurred often with this unit, it was dropped. The defense will have to make plays for this team to win and they did it two weeks ago to steal a win in Cincinnati.

I’m reluctant to pick West Virginia for a multitude of reasons but what has been preached by the coaching staff since the arrival of Neal Brown, the lack of consistency in all three phases of the game, sums it up.

I’m going to go out on a shaky limb this week and pick the Mountaineers. It’s quarterback Garrett Greene’s last home game of his Mountaineer career and I think he will motivate and will this team to a win while the defense will dial up more pressure against a freshman quarterback and force mistakes, but it will not be easy.

West Virginia finds a way to win 27-24.

Prediction record: 6-4.

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