Manchin keeps pressure on White House as last hope for Democrats to keep West Virginia blue

As Democrats seek to maintain control of the White House and their slim majority in the Senate, the Biden administration is facing some of its fiercest opposition from one of its own: West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin.

Because of their tight majority in the upper chamber, Manchin has emerged as one of the party’s most crucial holdout votes over the last two years, forcing Democrats into lengthy negotiations and compromises to get the centrist on board with their agenda. However, that delicate dance has become more precarious in the last few months — especially as Manchin has grown increasingly frustrated with the Biden administration’s climate policies.

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As a result, Manchin has rebelled against his Democratic counterparts in recent months, stonewalling confirmation hearings for Richard Glick, the chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, over complaints the agency has helped to advance the Biden administration’s aggressive climate policies. The delay has left FERC without a Democratic majority, leaving the panel deadlocked until the West Virginia senator agrees to let the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee move forward.

“I’m so absolutely in disagreement with how they’re trying to promote an energy policy,” Manchin said earlier this month. “It’s just not all about, ‘All green and clean.’”

Manchin has also expressed opposition to how the Biden administration has implemented its signature Inflation Reduction Act, a milestone piece of legislation that the West Virginia senator helped pass the Senate last year. Now, Manchin is threatening to withhold support on key appointments to the Environmental Protection Agency and the Interior Department until changes are made.

The Biden administration has sought to smooth over those relations, telling reporters earlier this week that the White House is “working in good faith” to implement the law as intended by Congress.

“We’re trying to implement it based on what the Congress passed,” John Podesta, a senior Biden adviser, told reporters. ”Now, he has disagreed a little bit with some of those interpretations, but I think we are operating in good faith to get guidance out as quickly as possible.”

To make things more complicated, all this comes as Manchin has publicly flirted with the idea of running for president on a third-party ticket — leaving open a crucial Senate seat and posing a serious challenge to Biden as he seeks reelection.

Manchin has not said whether he intends to run for reelection next year, nor has he indicated plans to launch a White House bid. However, the West Virginia senator is being eyed as a top contender for the No Labels group, which is planning to launch a third-party ticket to provide an alternative option in the case of a Trump-Biden rematch.

Should Manchin run for president, that could open another challenge for Senate Democrats as they seek to hold on to their slim majority as the centrist senator is seen as the party’s best chance to cling to the crucial seat.

The West Virginia Senate race is expected to be one of the most competitive elections of the 2024 cycle, making it one of only three races to be deemed a “tossup” by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. If Manchin runs for a second bid, he is considered one of the most vulnerable Senate incumbents as he would be running in a state that Biden lost by nearly 40 points in 2020.

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Although Manchin has not revealed his future plans, the West Virginia Democrat has expressed confidence in a victory regardless of the war he wages.

I’ve been in races to win. If I get in the race, I’m gonna win,” Manchin said last month. “I haven’t made a decision.”