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ESPN FPI Gives West Virginia a Staggering 0.8% Playoff Chance

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ESPN FPI Gives West Virginia a Staggering 0.8% Playoff Chance


Winning 10+ games in year one of Rich Rodriguez’s return to West Virginia is a tall task, especially given the schedule the Mountaineers have. Unfortunately, that’s likely the ballpark WVU needs to be in if they want an at-large bid in the College Football Playoff, assuming they don’t win the Big 12.

The chances of that happening? Slim to none, according to the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI).

West Virginia has just a 0.8% chance of making the playoffs, which is toward the bottom among Power Four teams. Only Mississippi State, Arizona, Stanford, Syracuse, Houston, Northwestern, Wake Forest, and Purdue have worse odds of making it.

Anyone who is expecting WVU to crash the college football playoff party this season may want to rethink their assessment of the team. Yes, Curt Cignetti did it in year one at Indiana a year ago, but he had the benefit of playing just one ranked opponent all season. Rich Rod won’t get that lucky.

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Rodriguez knows it’ll be an uphill battle in 2025, but that doesn’t mean he’s altered his main goals.

“If we’re not in contention in November for the conference championship, then I think it’s not a good year,” he told the ESPN College GameDay crew. “Every year, our first goal is to win the league. Now, if you win the league, you’re going to be in the playoff. I saw Arizona State do it last year, and I know it was in Kenny (Dillingham’s) second year, but they went from down the bottom to the top. Now, can we do that in one year, not two years? That’s a harder ask to do, but certainly that’ll be our focus.”

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Why is Popular Bracketologist Still Considering West Virginia for NCAA Tournament?

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Why is Popular Bracketologist Still Considering West Virginia for NCAA Tournament?


Losing to Kansas State wiped away all hope for West Virginia to make the NCAA Tournament. That seems to be the clear consensus in the Mountain State, but is there actually still a chance? Well, I guess so.

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ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi still has West Virginia listed as a team to consider, the second team outside of the “next four out” grouping.

Lunardi’s current NCAA Tournament bubble

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Feb 28, 2026; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers guard Honor Huff (3) shoots a three point shot over BYU Cougars guard Robert Wright III (1) during the second half at Hope Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

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Last Four Byes: Missouri, Texas A&M, Texas, Ohio State

Last Four In: SMU, Santa Clara, New Mexico, Indiana

First Four Out: VCU, Auburn, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati

Next Four Out: San Diego State, USC, California, Seton Hall

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Next: Stanford, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Arizona State

How is this even possible?

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Feb 28, 2026; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers head coach Ross Hodge watched a play from the sideline during the first half against the BYU Cougars at Hope Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

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Short answer? I don’t really know.

My best guess as to why? Two things: the respect for the Big 12 and the opportunities left on the table, and two, an incredibly weak bubble.

Should West Virginia beat UCF on Friday, it will give the Mountaineers a 9-9 record in Big 12 play. That’s not as much of a guarantee to make the dance as having a winning record, but still, it’s an impressive mark, especially when, in this instance, they would have wins over Kansas, BYU, and sweeps over Cincinnati and UCF.

If you ask me, they still have too many bad losses for it to matter. I mean, even if they got red-hot out of nowhere and made it to the Big 12 championship game next week, is that enough? Potentially, but that’s a big IF.

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The one thing WVU does have on its side is the number of Quad 1 wins, which they have five of. Virtually every other team in college basketball that has a minimum of five Quad 1 victories is expected to make the tournament. In that previously mentioned scenario, they would add at least one more Quad 1 win in the conference tournament, giving the committee something to think about.

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The bubble is just incredibly weak, though. Like, how in the world is Auburn, who is 16-14 currently, the second team out of the field? Cincinnati, which WVU swept and has the same record as, is the fourth team in the “first four out” grouping.

At this point, the only path I see is for the Mountaineers to cut down the nets in Kansas City — good luck with that. We could be having a very different conversation if they didn’t lallygag their way through the first 30 minutes of the games against Utah and Kansas State.



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Buckle up: West Virginia launching seatbelt enforcement campaign Friday

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Buckle up: West Virginia launching seatbelt enforcement campaign Friday


Buckle up, Upshur County. Starting Friday, March 6, law enforcement officers across West Virginia will step up seatbelt enforcement as part of a statewide Click It or Ticket campaign running through March 23.

The West Virginia Governor’s Highway Safety Program (GHSP) announced the high-visibility mobilization as a warm-up to the national seatbelt campaign in May. The goal is to ensure every occupant — front seat or back, driver or passenger — is buckled on every trip.

“During this mobilization, law enforcement officers across West Virginia will be out in full force. They will be strictly ticketing drivers who are unbuckled or who are transporting children not properly restrained in car seats,” said Jack McNeely, Director of the GHSP.

The numbers behind the campaign are sobering. In 2023, 40% of passenger vehicle occupants killed in West Virginia crashes were unrestrained. The state’s seatbelt usage rate has also slipped — from 91.9% in 2024 to 91.6% in 2025.

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Rural drivers face elevated risk despite a common assumption that country roads are safer. In 2023, 65% of the state’s traffic fatalities occurred in rural areas, compared to 35% in urban centers.

Under West Virginia law, wearing a seatbelt is required. A citation carries a $25 fine, though McNeely says the real point isn’t the penalty.

“Click It or Ticket isn’t about the citations; it’s about saving lives,” he said. “A ticket is a wake-up call. It is far less expensive than the alternative — paying with your life or the lives of your family and friends.”

For more information about the West Virginia Governor’s Highway Safety Program, visit highwaysafety.wv.gov or call 304-926-2509.



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West Virginia man accused of threatening Trump, ICE agents indicted

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West Virginia man accused of threatening Trump, ICE agents indicted


A West Virginia man accused of threatening to attack President Donald Trump and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement workers was federally indicted this week.

Cody Lee Smith, 20, of Clarksburg was indicted on two counts of threats to murder the president, one count of influencing and retaliating against federal officials by threat of murder and one count of influencing a federal official by threat of murder, according to a news release from the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Northern District of West Virginia.

Smith is accused of making a series of public posts on Instagram encouraging and threatening the murder of Trump, those who support him, Israelis and “all government officials,” the news release said.

The indictment also alleges that Smith sent a direct message via Instagram to Donald J. Trump, Jr., stating he would kill his father by cutting his “jugular.”

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In a phone call with the ICE tip line, Smith also threatened to kill ICE agents in Clarksburg and employees staffing the tip line.

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Smith faces up to 5 years for each of the presidential threat charges and faces up to 10 years in federal prison for each of the remaining counts.



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