Washington tennis picks: Rublev vs. Tiafoe, Shelton vs. Shapovalov

A marquee quarterfinal lineup in Washington, D.C. on Friday features a showdown between top seed Andrey Rublev and home favorite Frances Tiafoe. Left-handers Ben Shelton and Denis Shapovalov are also taking the court.

(1) Andrey Rublev vs. (5) Frances Tiafoe

Tiafoe has mostly underwhelmed in 2024, but an encouraging performance at Wimbledon and now an appearance at his home event–the Citi Open–could have him back on track. The 29th-ranked American reached the third round at the All-England Club and pushed eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz to five sets. Tiafoe’s hard-court summer began with an Atlanta quarterfinal loss to eventual champion Yoshihito Nishioka, but so far in the district he has defeated Daniel Elahi Galan and Aleksandar Kovacevic.

Up next for the fifth seed on quarterfinal Friday is a fourth meeting with Rublev, who trails the head-to-head series 2-1. Tiafoe has prevailed twice at the U.S. Open (2021 and 2022), while Rublev got the job done 6-3, 6-4 at the 2022 Indian Wells Masters. Like his opponent, the eighth-ranked Russian has struggled for the majority of this season. From out of nowhere he captured a Masters 1000 title in Madrid, but that has been followed by another slump. Rublev’s only decent result since Madrid is a semifinal showing in Umag, so he can only hope that wins over Luca Van Assche and Arthur Rinderknech are the start of something special in D.C. Unfortunately for the No. 1 seed, that probably isn’t the case. Tiafoe has built up slightly more momentum that Rublev, is confident in this particular matchup, and should benefit from home-court advantage.

Pick: Tiafoe in 3

(WC) Denis Shapovalov vs. (2) Ben Shelton

Shelton and Shapovalov will be squaring off for the second time in their careers and the second time this summer. They just faced each other in the Wimbledon third round, and it did not disappoint; Shelton survived 6-7(4), 6-2, 6-4, 4-6, 6-2. The 14th-ranked American decided to skip the Olympics to focus on the U.S. hard-court swing, and so far returns are mixed. He lost right away in Atlanta to nemesis Jerry Shang but so far in Washington, D.C. has ousted Radu Albot and Brandon Nakashima.

Shapovalov is a dreadful 15-17 this season as he returns from a knee injury, but he is showing signs of a turnaround. In addition to his Wimbledon performance he also reached the third round at Roland Garros. The 139th-ranked Canadian kicked off his hard-court summer with a second-round showing in Atlanta; now he is through to the last eight in D.C. thanks to victories over Roberto Bautista Agut, Adrian Mannarino, and Miomir Kecmanovic. Still, consistency remains an issue and this is the first time since Wimbledon in 2023 that Shapovalov has won three matches in a single tournament. He has not won four since Vienna in the fall of 2022.

Pick: Shelton in 2