What is Virginia Tech’s Ceiling in 2026 If Everything Falls Into Place?

Eight months ago, Virginia Tech football hit its lowest point in recent memory. Not a close loss, not a bad beat. The Hokies got handled at home by Old Dominion, 45-26, and the head coach was fired three games into the season. They finished 3-9. Their recruiting class sat in the 120s nationally. The program felt stuck.

Then James Franklin walked through the door, and things started moving fast.

The former Penn State coach went 104-45 in 12 seasons in State College, cracked 10 wins in six of them, and took the Nittany Lions to the College Football Playoff in 2024. He signed a five-year, $41.75 million deal in November, pulled the recruiting class from the 120s to a top-30 class by signing day, and built what ESPN ranked as the 15th-best transfer portal class in the country.

So what does the ceiling look like if everything actually clicks?

There is no ceiling conversation without Ethan Grunkemeyer. The redshirt sophomore transferred from Penn State in January, and his story is worth understanding. When Drew Allar went down with an ankle injury last fall, Penn State handed the keys to a 20-year-old backup who had never started a college game. Grunkemeyer did not blink. He completed 69.1 percent of his passes for 1,339 yards, eight touchdowns, and four interceptions, posting a 75.0 QBR. Over the final four games, he threw six touchdowns and zero interceptions and closed the year with a 22-10 win over Clemson in the Pinstripe Bowl.

He is not walking into a new offense. He reunited in Blacksburg with offensive coordinator Ty Howle and quarterbacks coach Danny O’Brien, the same staff he had at Penn State.CBS Sports ranked him sixth among ACC quarterbacks in March. What makes Grunkemeyer interesting is not the stat line. It is the end of his 2025 season, when the moment got big, and he got better. Virginia Tech needs that guy.

The piece that could make this offense genuinely hard to defend is tight end Luke Reynolds. The Penn State transfer was the No. 4 tight end in the portal per 247Sports. At 6-foot-4 and 250 pounds, with a 4.5 40-yard dash and a 38-inch vertical, he is a seam-stretching mismatch at a position Virginia Tech has not had much of. He led all receivers in the spring game with five catches for 69 yards. Howle spent years developing tight ends in the Penn State system, most recently coaching Tyler Warren, who went No. 14 overall to the Indianapolis Colts in the 2025 NFL Draft. Reynolds has the tools to become the best player on this offense by October.

The other thing worth knowing is that despite going 3-9 last year, the Hokies averaged 182.4 rushing yards per game and ranked third in the ACC on the ground. The running game was already there. The problem was everything else. If the passing game catches up, this offense has teeth.

Then there is the strange but logical decision to bring back Brent Pry, the same coach who was fired in September, now as defensive coordinator. Pry held that same role under Franklin at Penn State from 2016 to 2021. He knows the system, knows what Franklin wants from a defense and knows how to build one inside this staff structure. The roster needed work and got some, with additions at edge rusher, linebacker and in the secondary. None of them are household names yet, but Pry has the pedigree to turn them into quality college football players.

The schedule sets up the Hokies for a strong start. Virginia Tech opens with VMI and Old Dominion at home, then travels to Maryland in a non-conference road test before opening ACC play at Boston College on Sept. 26.

What is the ceiling for Virginia Tech?

Nine wins and a major bowl game is the realistic ceiling for year one. It requires Grunkemeyer to take command of the offense, Reynolds to be what the spring game suggested and Pry to piece together a defense faster than most rebuilds allow. None of that is guaranteed. But none of it is far-fetched, either.

Franklin took Vanderbilt from back-to-back 2-10 seasons to nine wins in his second year. He went from 7-6 in his first two seasons at Penn State to 11-3 in his third. He is not a guy who needs forever to make something work.

Blacksburg has not had a reason to believe in a while. It has one now.