Virginia voters to vote on measure that could determine control of Congress

ARLINGTON, Va. (7News) — After months of television ads, mailings, and debates, Virginia voters head to the polls Tuesday to vote on whether to approve a redistricting measure that would radically change Congressional maps in order to favor Democrats.

The measure has the potential to determine which party controls Congress after the midterm elections this fall.

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Virginia polling locations will be open from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. The election is unusual in that there are no names of candidates on the ballot. Instead, there is just one question to vote yes or no on:

“Should the Constitution of Virginia be amended to allow the General Assembly to temporarily adopt new congressional districts to restore fairness in the upcoming elections, while ensuring Virginia’s standard redistricting process resumes for all future redistricting after the 2030 census?”

A yes vote would likely lead to a new map that would be expected to give Democrats a 10 to one edge in Virginia’s Congressional delegation. Under the current map, Democrats have six seats and Republicans have five.

Supporters of voting yes said the measure is in response to states like Texas that have gerrymandered in favor of Republicans winning House seats. But opponents who urge a no vote point out the measure would make Virginia one of the most gerrymandered states in the nation, and would create districts in which many voters don’t share common interests with each other.

The vote is expected to be close.

“It seems to me that a strong turnout effort on election day can give either side a win,” said Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington. “The big challenge for both the yes and the no side is to get people who will support them if they turn out to actually do soI think anybody who is not strongly committed one side or the other is likely to stay home.”

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Advertisements and messaging from both sides have left some voters confused. For example, both supporters and opponents of the measure have referenced Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger. She supports the measure to counterbalance Republican actions elsewhere, but in the past she has made strong statements against the type of gerrymandering the ballot measure would allow.

“Usually when people are confused, they don’t vote. Some of them do, but most of them don’t,” said Larry Sabato, the director of The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

Sabato said it’s tough to predict which side will win. Even though the limited polling that’s been done has given a narrow edge to the yes vote, data related to early voting may tell a different story.

“Normally, you would think given Virginia’s pretty strong Democratic lean, that this very partisan referendum would be enough to generate Democratic turnout for Democrats to win,” he said. “But I’ll tell you why people are hesitant – they’ve seen large turnouts in conservative, Republican areas. Because [voters in those areas] are mad. Their representatives are being eliminated through this process.”

“This is going to be tied very closely to how one feels about President Trump,” Farnsworth said. “The people who don’t like President Trump will vote in favor of this amendment. The people who do like President Trump will vote against it.”

It’s not clear how many people will actually show up at the polls on election day Tuesday.

“People who were very interested in this, who were knowledgeable about the subject, probably voted early for the most part,” Sabato said.

Mail-in ballots can still be dropped off at official drop boxes until 7 p.m. on Tuesday, and if they are mailed they need to be postmarked by Tuesday and received by noon on Friday.