Virginia Football vs. SMU Game Preview, Score Prediction

Virginia and SMU will meet for the first time ever on Saturday at Scott Stadium, finally clashing on the gridiron nearly three years after the two programs were supposed to face each other in the Fenway Bowl at the end of the 2021 season. There is plenty at stake in this one, as the13th-ranked Mustangs look to keep their unblemished ACC record intact and clinch a spot in the ACC Championship Game, while the Cavaliers are hoping to clinch bowl eligibility and send their seniors out with a win in their final game at Scott Stadium.

Read on for a full preview of Virginia vs. SMU with everything you need to know, including game details and notes, an opponent scouting report, what to watch for, and a score prediction.

Who: Virginia Cavaliers (5-5, 3-3 ACC) vs. SMU Mustangs (9-1, 6-0 ACC)

When: Saturday, November 23rd at 12pm ET

Where: Scott Stadium (61,500) in Charlottesville, VA

How to watch: ESPN2

How to listen: SiriusXM 381, SXM App 971 | Virginia Sports Radio Network

All-time series: first meeting

Read Virginia’s injury report for the SMU game here: UVA Football Week 13 Injury Report: Kam Robinson, James Jackson, Corey Thomas

See below for UVA’s week 13 depth chart for the SMU game: Virginia Football Depth Chart vs. SMU | Takeaways, Analysis

2023: 11-3, 8-0 AAC
2024: 9-1, 6-0 ACC

For Rhett Lashlee and the Mustangs, their first foray into the Atlantic Coast Conference couldn’t be going much better, save an 18-15 loss in week 3 to BYU, a team that is still alive for the Big 12 Championship. SMU comes to Charlottesville riding a seven-game winning streak, which includes a 66-42 victory over TCU, an impressive 34-27 win on the road at then-No. 22 Louisville, an overtime victory over Duke that was a bit fortunate as the Blue Devils squandered multiple chances to win the game late, but the Mustangs followed that up with their most impressive win of the season, a 48-25 victory over Pitt. Last week, SMU was tested by Boston College, but ultimately pulled away for a 38-28 win.

SMU has the second-ranked scoring offense in the ACC, averaging just under 40 points per game. Powering that offense is a very strong run game, the second-best rushing offense in the ACC (190.9 rushing yards per game and 24 rushing touchdowns), which is headlined by one of the top running backs in the country in Brashard Smith, who has racked up 1,026 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns and is averaging more than 100 yards per game.

Though SMU leans heavily on its ground game, the Mustangs are more than capable of throwing the ball as well. Quarterback Kevin Jennings ranks fourth in the ACC in completion percentage at 65.4% and is careful with the football, throwing 15 touchdowns to just six interceptions. He has a plethora of targets in the passing game, as SMU boasts three receivers with at least four touchdowns, four who have at least 20 catches, and five who have hauled in multiple touchdown passes this season.

SMU’s run defense is even better than its rushing offense, leading the ACC in run defense and allowing less than 100 yards per game on the ground. The Mustangs are a quite a bit weaker in pass defense, surrendering almost 250 passing yards per game, which is 13th in the ACC. SMU makes up for it by forcing turnovers, recording 14 interceptions (2nd-most in the ACC) and six fumble recoveries.

SMU has 23 sacks as a team this season, 9.5 of which have come from dynamic defensive ends Isaiah Smith and Jahfari Harvey, who will put a ton of pressure on UVA’s offensive tackles. Keep an eye on safeties Isaiah Nwokobia and Ahmaad Moses, who have each posted three interceptions this season.

UVA’s quarterback situation
With Anthony Colandrea’s quarterback play regressing recently (seven interceptions and one touchdown pass in his last three games) and Tony Muskett playing decently in his garbage time backup opportunities, Muskett and Colandrea have been splitting first-team reps in practice this week. Tony Elliott said on Tuesday that he was still leaning towards Colandrea retaining his starting job, but even if that’s the case, it’ll be interesting to see if Elliott has Colandrea on a short leash. Muskett has yet to enter a game that wasn’t already completely out of reach. Virginia is desperate to pick up that sixth win, so it should be all hands on deck.

Turnover margin and red zone efficiency
Virginia is -4 in the turnover margin department this season and ball security has been a particular issue recently. SMU, meanwhile, has forced 20 turnovers this season. The Mustangs are also ranked third in the ACC in both red zone offense and red zone defense, while the Cavaliers have struggled with red zone efficiency all season. An upset win for UVA will likely require the Hoos to win the turnover battle and execute at a high level in the red zone on both sides of the ball.

Defend home field
Virginia is 2-3 at home this season, with those wins coming against Richmond and Boston College. The Cavaliers must have some pride about protecting their home field and sending their seniors out on top in their last games at home. Much has been made about UVA’s home attendance this season. In their final opportunity to see Virginia football play at home this season, we’re looking for the UVA faithful to show out at Scott Stadium and provide the Hoos with a real home field advantage.

Virginia is capable of hanging around with and even beating SMU if the Cavaliers bring their A game. But UVA hasn’t been able to bring that A game consistently this season or even throughout all four quarters of a game and that’s what it’ll likely take in order to slow down SMU. I see the Pony Express continuing to roll as the Mustangs pick up their eighth straight win, remain unbeaten in conference play, and secure their spot in the ACC Championship Game.

Score prediction: SMU 31, Virginia 23

UVA Football: Players to Watch in Virginia vs. SMU

Stat Comparison: How Virginia Football Stacks Up Against SMU on Paper

Tony Elliott Updates the Virginia Football Quarterback Situation

UVA Football Week 13 Injury Report: Kam Robinson, James Jackson, Corey Thomas

Virginia Football Depth Chart vs. SMU | Takeaways, Analysis