UVA Basketball Report Card: Evaluating Virginia Through Three Games

While Villanova has looked like a shell of its former self in the post-Jay Wright era, Virginia’s 70-60 win showcased a promising performance from multiple Cavaliers and also revealed the allocation of player minutes we ought to see as the year progresses. Metrics don’t necessarily matter, but Coach Ron Sanchez’s ‘Hoos (3-0) currently sit at 76th overall in KenPom’s rankings — 135th in offensive efficiency and 48th in defensive efficiency. Let’s look past the small sample size and distribute some grades to Virginia’s new-look roster and head coach thus far.

Thanks to junior guard Isaac McKneely’s three-point shooting barrage Friday night, this grade has been bumped up from where it was after a close-ish win against Campbell and a runaway defeat of Coppin State. Virginia’s shining star is McKneely; however, a surprise three-point resurgence from Andrew Rohde against Villanova and a 45.5% clip so far from freshman forward Jacob Cofie suggests that there are more weapons than previously anticipated. Sophomore forward TJ Power — lauded as a terrific stretch-shooter — hasn’t quite gotten into his groove yet, and freshman three-point specialist Ishan Sharma is waiting in the wings.

Five players on Virginia are averaging over 40% from three, albeit, once again, a small-ish sample size. Where the offense has often sputtered is in its frontcourt production, i.e. sophomore center Blake Buchanan’s interior play. A returning starter, Buchanan has shown signs of improvement, but he might end up playing second-fiddle to junior forward Elijah Saunders in terms of post-ups and one-on-one matchups capitalized upon against forwards/less-physical centers. Virginia really needs an efficient year from their sophomore to round out what is still a much-improved scoring frontcourt.

The “Embrace the Pace” mantra has notably stayed true even in the wake of Coach Tony Bennett’s departure, with Virginia currently ranked 362nd out of 363 Division-1 teams in terms of adjusted tempo. However, Sanchez has used more creative actions to get Isaac McKneely open looks off of high ball-screens, and expect Buchanan to linger around the high post and force defenders to follow him out.

I don’t think the ‘Hoos did a terrific job against Campbell in game one, although it’s relevant to point out that the Pack Line often requires plenty of time to gel. However, some worrisome lapses in recovery from Rohde and Cofie allowed the Camels to chase high-percentage opportunities from three and under the basket. Now, the Villanova matchup witnessed a tightening-up of the defensive play, as Virginia’s frontcourt keyed into the ‘Cats’ fifth-year forward Eric Dixon and held him to six points inside the three-point line (he finished with 20, a season-low). Even with a hobbled Saunders, the bigs looked capable of stymying more physical frontcourt players — the likes of which they’ll see against Tennessee and Baylor/St. John’s next week. 

Cofie could take the reins from Ryan Dunn as the next great defensive disruptor to come out of Charlottesville. The ‘Hoos’ current leader in rebounds, blocks, and steals, the freshman from Washington recorded a jaw-dropping seven stocks (combined blocks and steals) against Coppin State and looked comfortable defending higher-quality talent on Friday night. Cofie’s length and athleticism will benefit Virginia’s bigger lineups, in particular, as he’ll overwhelm opposing teams’ fours when playing alongside Buchanan.

We’ll have a better idea as to how this team will fare defensively come Friday night against the Volunteers. The performance on that side of the ball isn’t yet on par with a Bennett-coached roster, but the erasure of Villanova’s offense (28.9% 3PT) was encouraging.

Sanchez has passed the eye test thus far. I’ve been impressed by his willingness to get creative with the rotations, whether it be plugging Rohde in at the three alongside Ames at the one or giving a freshman — Cofie — 25+ minutes a game. As mentioned previously, he has made a concerted effort to get the rock to McKneely, which has the effect of both unlocking the junior’s long-range flamethrower and forcing defenses to slide away from other threats such as Cofie, Ames, and Saunders. Kyle Guy’s emergence on the coaching staff also cannot be understated enough. Multiple Cavaliers have cited Guy’s active role as a practice participant and as a three-point shooting mentor, which has clearly rubbed off on the junior from West Virginia.

The Plus/Minus: Virginia Basketball Lights Up Villanova

While early, there’s evidence building for Sanchez’s case to remain in Charlottesville beyond this year. His attitude in pressers showcases that of a confident leader, and his calm demeanor on the sidelines harkens back to memories of Bennett patrolling his court at John Paul Jones Arena. If Sanchez can secure just one win over Tennessee or Baylor/St. John’s, he’ll have this Virginia team far ahead of schedule considering what a turbulent offseason it’s been.

Three-point shooting is the obvious answer. A 14/25 finish against Villanova — good for 56% — allowed the ‘Hoos to go up by as much as 18 in the second half. It reminded me of the ‘Hoos early-season victory over Baylor two years prior, in which Bennett’s crew ran the Bears off of the floor while shooting 64.3% from behind the arc. It seems as if every contributor outside of Buchanan is more than capable of converting open looks, and high-impact additions in Power and Sharma haven’t even hit their stride. Their minutes will be primarily determined by their ability to shoot from distance.

Having a budding all-conference player in McKneely is also a strength, and Sanchez will hope to maximize his contributions to a youth-laden Virginia team throughout games against tougher competition. If McKneely can create his own shot off of the dribble, a new dimension will be added to this offense.

The interior play of Virginia’s frontcourt may plague the ‘Hoos, however. I’m sure that Saunders will see some of those high-percentage shots fall around the basket, and I’m hopeful that Buchanan will look a bit more polished. Those two players will take some of the burden off of the ‘Hoos’ perimeter threats. Moreover, an improved offensive attack from Rohde — as evidenced by his 13-point outing against Villanova — would allow Sanchez to play both he and Ames as distributors and slashers without having to sacrifice much size.

Virginia will return to action Friday against No. 11 Tennessee, who now features a former ‘Hoo in forward Igor Milicic. The junior forward — a two-year player under Sanchez at Charlotte — is averaging 11.0 points per game and will likely see plenty of Cofie and Saunders as his defensive assignments. Any inside track to cracking Rick Barnes’ well-oiled Volunteer team will be helpful as Sanchez continues his quest for the full-time coaching position.

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