Spread & Over/Under Predictions for West Virginia vs. Arizona

It’s the final day of the Battle 4 Atlantis and the West Virginia Mountaineers are hoping to leave the Bahamas with a third-place finish in the event. Winning the whole thing would have been extremely impressive considering the field, but Darian DeVries’ squad has already notched a key resume-building win over Gonzaga and can do so again today against No. 24 Arizona.

Here are my picks for today’s game. Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

1 Star – Not very confident
2 Star – A little confident
3 Star – Fairly confident
4 Star – Very confident
5 Star – Should be a lock to happen

3-star play on Arizona (-6.5): This is a really tough matchup for the Mountaineers playing its third game in three days. When these two meet later in the year, I believe WVU will put together a much stronger showing and potentially even win the game. Not there, though.

The Wildcats have a nine-man rotation, which occasionally will be a ten-man. WVU’s key players have logged a ton of minutes over the last two days, with both games going to overtime. As evidenced in yesterday’s game, if the Mountaineers face serious foul trouble, it impacts them more than most teams due to a lack of depth. Amani Hansberry should be able to produce a third straight big game, but if he starts picking up fouls left and right, WVU will be in trouble. Arizona’s guard-heavy lineup will attack and finish around the rim with ease.

I’ve got the Wildcats pulling away with a strong second half.

1-star play on the under: Arizona is a high-scoring team that likes to push the tempo. They’ve averaged 67 field goal attempts in this tournament, whereas WVU has attempted 59 and 63 in games that went to overtime. For West Virginia to win, they’re going to have to slow things down when they have the ball, much like they did in the opening-round game against Gonzaga.

I mentioned fatigue setting in as a possibility in the WVU-Louisville game yesterday, and although Darian DeVries isn’t using that as an excuse, you can tell it played a factor for both teams, especially in the first half. Both squads looked sloppy, slow, and disjointed. I seriously doubt WVU and Arizona will have an extra bounce in their step today, playing for the third time in three days and in a game deciding who takes home third place.

ATS: 3-3 (50%)
O/U: 4-2 (66%)
Overall: 7-5 (58%)

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