Penn State vs. West Virginia score prediction by college football expert model

West Virginia is looking to make a statement at home and to avenge last season’s loss as it welcomes Penn State in this Big Ten vs. Big 12 matchup to open the 2024 college football season on Saturday.

Expect both teams to run the ball with authority, an area of expertise for these offenses.

Penn State returns its two-headed backfield of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen to help out as quarterback Drew Allar finds his deep ball.

West Virginia gets quarterback Garrett Greene and rushers Jaheim White and CJ Donaldson back, a combination that ranked third nationally with 229 yards per game a year ago.

What do the analytics say about the matchup? For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to forecast the game as Penn State and West Virginia renew their rivalry.

The simulations favor Penn State to come away with a sizable victory in the Week 1 matchup.

SP+ predicts the Nittany Lions will defeat the Mountaineers by a projected score of 34 to 20 and to win the game by an expected 13.9 points.

The model expects Penn State to win outright with 81 percent likelihood.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

Penn State is an 8.5 point favorite against West Virginia, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 51.5 points for the game.

FanDuel set the moneyline odds for Penn State at -310 and for West Virginia at +245.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take…

Other analytic tools also favor Penn State to come away from West Virginia with the win.

That includes College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

The index favors Penn State to win the game in 77.7 percent of its simulations, while West Virginia came out the projected winner in the remaining 22.3 percent of sims.

The model projects Penn State to be 13.8 points better than West Virginia on the same field, also good enough to cover the 8.5 point spread.

When: Sat., Aug. 31
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

–

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks