Virginia
Election 2024: Polls show DC, Maryland, Virginia leaning left
VP Kamala Harris delivers ‘closing argument’ speech at the Ellipse
Kamala Harris fired back on Tuesday, declaring that Donald Trump’s divisive tactics and fear-mongering are “not who we are,” as she delivered her closing campaign message from the very spot where the former president incited the Capitol insurrection in 2021.
WASHINGTON – With just one week left until the election, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are making their final bids to voters who will be heading to the polls on Nov. 5.
Harris is held a rally at the Ellipse in Washington, D.C. Tuesday night, where she made her “closing argument,” urging the nation to “turn the page” toward a new era and away from Trump.
Trump, meanwhile, delivered remarks to the press at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach Tuesday morning before heading to Pennsylvania for a “Building America’s Future” community roundtable in Drexel Hill and an evening rally in Allentown. He held his own closing argument rally at Madison Square Garden on Sunday.
The two candidates remain locked in a razor-thin race. Harris continues to have an edge in national polls, according to 270toWin. Their average of 14 recent national polls shows Harris with a narrow 0.9% lead over Trump (48.1% to 47.2%).
Polls also show Trump just slightly ahead in some swing states that could decide the election. All the polls are extremely close and within the margin of error.
While there are some close races here in the DMV, many are leaning left — something that’s not new for us. Here’s a look at polling data in some of the key races in our area.
D.C. polling
D.C. has always skewed heavily blue. The District has consistently voted Democratic in every presidential election since gaining its three electoral votes through the ratification of the 23rd Amendment in 1961. No Republican has ever won an electoral vote.
In the 2020 election, Joe Biden received about 17 votes for each one vote for Donald Trump, according to 270toWin and in the 2024 primaries, Biden overwhelmingly saw more support from Democrats than Trump saw from Republicans.
Nikki Haley won the Republican primary in the District with 63% of the vote compared to Trump’s 33%, showing that even D.C.’s conservatives may be turning away from the MAGA ideology.
Early voting got underway in D.C. Monday so there’s not much data on which way ballots are being cast but the bellwether indicates that the District will once again swing solidly Democratic and that all three electoral votes will go to Harris.
Presidential predictor Allan Lichtman stands by call that Harris will win 2024 election
Expert historian and American University professor Allan Lichtman has called the winner of nearly every presidential election since the 1980s and made his final prediction saying Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election back in September. Today On The Hill, he says he stands by the decision. Here’s why.
Maryland polling
Maryland is clearly leaning Democratic as well. The latest aggregate poll data from RealClearPolitics puts Harris above Trump by nearly 30 percentage points in the state, 62.2% to 33%.
A Washington Post-University of Maryland Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement survey conducted between Oct. 17-22 showed similar results, with Harris polling at 61% while Trump was at 33%.
According to NBC’s early voting dashboard, more than 1 million early voting ballots have been cast in Maryland, 60% of those by registered Democrats, 25% by registered Republicans and 10% by independents.
The same Post-UMD poll showed Democratic leanings in another key Maryland race: Alsobrooks vs. Hogan.
Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks and former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan are facing off for the state’s open Senate seat.
It’s a race that has garnered national attention as it could be key in determining which political party will lead the U.S. Senate for the next four years.
The survey shows Alsobrooks maintaining a clear lead over Hogan by 12% (52% to 40%). The unusually competitive race has already drawn in at least $84.6 million dollars in combined contributions, according to a Washington Post report from October.
Alsobrooks holds steady lead over Hogan in Maryland Senate race
The Washington Post and University of Maryland just released a poll that has Prince George’s County executive Angela Alsobooks in the lead for the Maryland Senate race over former Governor Larry Hogan. Washington Post reporter Erin Cox joins On The Hill to talk about the Senate race and what to expect in the last week of campaigning.
Virginia polling
Virginia is the biggest toss-up in the DMV. While it’s not a battleground state, it is a swing state, frequently alternating between Democratic and Republican control.
With 13 electoral college votes, it’s still a key state in any presidential election.
For more than three decades, starting with Nixon, Virginia went to the Republican candidate. But that flipped in 2008 with the election of Barack Obama and it has held Democratic since then.
Right now, RealClearPolitics puts Harris ahead of Trump in the Commonwealth, 49.8% to 44%. RCP averaged five polls conducted from early September to October.
According to a Washington Post-Schar School poll, Harris holds a six-point edge over Trump among likely voters in Virginia.
An ActiVote poll shows a wider margin between the two candidates with Harris leading former Trump by 8.2%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%.
Early voting data from NBC also shows strong Democratic turnout in Virginia. More than 1.6 million ballots have been cast in the state – 52% by Democrats, 38% by Republicans and 10% by independents.
There are several key congressional races in Virginia as well.
Sen. Tim Kaine talks VA politics amid re-election campaign
Virginia Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine is running for re-election. He’s On The Hill to talk about his race, what he’s focusing on, his perspective on the upcoming presidential debate and the Virginia governor’s race as Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears ahs entered the race, challenging Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger.
Democratic incumbent Tim Kaine is faceting Republican challenger Hung Cao for the senate seat. The Washington Post-Schar survey shows that Kaine has a comfortable lead over Cao, 54% to 41%.
According to the poll, nearly all Harris supporters said they would be voting for Kaine. About 9 in 10 Trump supporters said they are voting for Cao.