Drought creeping southward across Virginia

Before the showers on Monday, Richmond had less than a tenth of an inch of rain since the start of June, and the past three weeks have been the 11th driest similar period on record. The last soaking rain came about a month ago, when 2.78 inches fell on May 16.

That system bought us some time against a drought in an otherwise dry spring. Areas northward from Richmond got much less rain, and now the ground is especially dry from Ashland to Lynchburg northward to Winchester and Alexandria.

Streamflow in that part of the state is in the bottom 10 percent of observed records, with many locations getting less than 20% of normal rainfall over the last four weeks.

As a result, the Virginia DEQ declared a drought watch advisory for many areas north and west of Richmond. Essentially, this means that conditions have become dry enough to review water conservation and drought response plans, and communities should prepare to put those actions in place unless we get some soaking rain soon.

Unfortunately, the prospects for rain are small for the next several days before scattered showers return toward the end of the weekend. However, that type of rainfall usually does not cover large areas or last for several hours. With the long summer days ahead of us, expect the drought in northern Virginia to expand southward in the coming couple of weeks.

Looking into the last ten days of the month, signals are mixed regarding rainfall, but there is room for guarded optimism. Although the weather pattern does not favor repeated spells of rain, it will hold searing heat west of Virginia, allowing weak disturbances to meander our way. This is a much better alternative than what the middle of the country will be dealing with for the rest of the month — consistently hotter than normal, with only sporadic chances for rain.

Specifically for Virginia, afternoon temperature will be in the 80s for the next two weeks, perhaps even holding in the 70s on days we get some midday showers. While a day or two may squeak into the lower 90s, there is no sign of prolonged searing heat.

And even thought it has gotten close several times, Richmond has not reached 90 degrees yet this season. The latest first occurrence of 90 degrees on record was in the summer of 1972, when it did not happen until July 2.

We have already reached into the top 10 of latest occurrences, and have a good chance of staying below that 90-degree threshold through this coming weekend. If that happens, this year will move into third place on that list.

The second latest on record is June 24, and if we can get through these next few days, we have a chance of moving even further up that top 10 list.

Considering record highs this time of year are up around 100, there will probably be very few complaints.