Can Notre Dame avoid a senior day hiccup vs. Virginia? 3 keys and a prediction

SOUTH BEND, Ind. — There was a time when senior day felt more like a final exam than an end-of-school party. Games like Saturday’s matchup with Virginia were tripwires, as Notre Dame got wrapped up in its feelings rather than focusing on the game.

There were losses to Louisville, Virginia Tech, Syracuse and UConn. There were escapes against Boston College and Navy. None of those results happened that long ago, even if they date back to the end of the Charlie Weis era. But they might as well have been from a different generation considering how Notre Dame has figured out how to compartmentalize the extra tension that comes with a final game inside Notre Dame Stadium.

“We all have to make sure you get your emotions under control before that song plays, before we’re gonna kick that ball off or return,” Marcus Freeman said. “You have to get your emotions back in check

That all assumes Saturday is the final game Notre Dame will play here this season. And maybe that helps with context.

Notre Dame has won its past six home finales by an average of 37.2 points. Freeman’s two senior sendoff games — Wake Forest and BC — were victories by a combined 99-7 score.

It all makes this weekend feel a bit more predictable for No. 8 Notre Dame (8-1) as it hosts Virginia (5-4) at 3:30 p.m. ET on NBC. If the Irish simply keep doing what they’re doing — getting responsible play from Riley Leonard and exemplary work from their defense — they should cruise into their bi-coastal final acts, facing Army at Yankee Stadium next weekend, with rival USC to follow during Thanksgiving weekend.

Notre Dame tight end Mitchell Evans (88) has 18 catches for 154 yards and one touchdown this season. (Matt Cashore / Imagn Images)

With all that in mind, here are three keys and a prediction for Saturday:

Build up Greathouse and Evans

A 52-3 blowout is full of offensive wins. It’s just that what Notre Dame did with slot receiver Jaden Greathouse and tight end Mitchell Evans against Florida State might be the start of a trend. Arguably Notre Dame’s two best weapons in the passing game, Greathouse and Evans combined for 10 targets, seven catches, 87 yards and one touchdown last week.

Evans had an acrobatic 17-yard catch the officials correctly ruled an incompletion after a replay. But the moment looked a lot like Evans from last year when he dominated Ohio State and Duke. If that version of Evans is finally back, now more than a year removed from his torn ACL, the Irish offense might find a new gear.

“(Evans) played the best game he’s played all year,” Freeman said. “The most complete game in the run and pass game that he’s played all year. It was great to see him make that touchdown, and that catch was a big-time catch. I know it was incomplete, but that’s the Mitchell Evans we’ve been waiting on.”

Greathouse is second on the team with 23 catches, 310 yards and one score. It’s not the season the Irish expected from a potential lead wide receiver, but the sophomore looked the part on tunnel screens against Florida State after getting open deep against Navy.

“He just continues to show up,” offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock said. “I mean, every time we lean on him or put him out there and put him in a position to make a play, he’s been consistent, and he’s made them, and they’ve been explosive.”

If the Irish can string success together for Evans and Greathouse, the passing game could end the season on a high note.

Don’t miss Cross in the middle

When Howard Cross went down with a high ankle sprain last week, it put a major dent in Notre Dame’s defensive line for the short term. The defensive tackle won’t play against Virginia and might not play again until the game against USC. With reserve defensive tackle Jason Onye away from the team for personal reasons, one of Notre Dame’s great strengths has been cut in half.

A rotation of Rylie Mills, Gabe Rubio and Donovan Hinish does feel like a first-world problem for a defense that ranks in the top 10 in almost every major category. But the Irish have been slightly vulnerable against the run (No. 25 at 3.47 yards per carry allowed). Losing Cross won’t make that any better; not that the Irish need to concede it will get worse.

Mills and Rubio are prototypes, both 6-foot-5 and pushing 300 pounds. Hinish is three inches shorter and nearly 25 pounds lighter. Yet the coaching staff feels like the junior can hold up at the point of attack.

“We say it all the time, keep recruiting guys that love the game as much as you,” defensive coordinator Al Golden said. “All you have to do is turn on the tape, and you’ll understand his passion for the game.

“What you can’t see is his preparation, his tenacity. He’s dogged every day in terms of here’s what I gotta do, and I’m gonna do it. He’s a blessing to have on this team.”

Virginia may not stress Notre Dame’s short-handed defensive tackle rotation, with the Cavaliers ranked 91st in yards per carry (3.93) and 85th in rushing yards per game. A week later against Army might be a different story, with the Black Knights No. 1 in rushing at 334.49 yards per game, which is 66 yards per game more than No. 2 Boise State.

Just keep winning

The path for Notre Dame to get into the College Football Playoff is clear.

Win out and the Irish will head to the 12-team field, no questions asked. But hosting a first-round game is slightly more complicated, not that the Irish can’t have their path cleared by the end of this weekend.

Only two CFP contenders have a single-digit point spread on Saturday, with one matchup a win for Notre Dame either way. No. 7 Tennessee heads to No. 12 Georgia (7:30 p.m., ABC) in what is probably an elimination game for the loser. If the Vols score an upset, it eliminates the Dawgs from the CFP conversation and makes Georgia one of the season’s biggest disappointments. If Georgia wins, Tennessee likely falls into “first four out” territory thanks to a weak schedule. The Vols have a quality home win over Alabama, and that’s it. Tennessee doesn’t have another win over an FBS program with a winning record, with only UTEP and Vanderbilt remaining.

A Tennessee win is probably best for Notre Dame because it knocks out one of college football’s most talented rosters. But either way, the Irish benefit.

Any other result that benefits Notre Dame would feel like chaos, like Texas losing at Arkansas (Noon, ABC), Oregon losing at Wisconsin (7:30 p.m., NBC) or BYU losing at home to Kansas (10:15 p.m., ESPN). All would help the Irish move up the polls and probably improve Notre Dame’s shot at a home Playoff game.

But the most important thing is for Notre Dame to win.

Prediction

After two-plus seasons of searching, it feels like Freeman has found his groove on the sidelines. Mentions of his inexperience are down. Consistent performances are up. That reliability should carry through the regular-season home finale. It’s hard to see the Cavaliers finding much success against one of the nation’s best defenses. It’s also hard to see Virginia bottling up Leonard. It all means the Irish will pull away in the second half, continuing their push toward the Playoff.

Notre Dame 35, Virginia 14

(Top photo of Jaden Greathouse: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)