10 primaries to watch in Maryland, Nebraska and West Virginia

Will the Barefoot Moscato be drunk in celebration, or to drown some sorrows? Tuesday brings what is arguably the most interesting non-presidential primary of 2024: the high-rolling, racially charged, on-a-knife’s-edge Democratic primary for Maryland Senate. But there are plenty of appetizers to go with that main course: Will the MAGA movement take down a famously moderate Republican congressman, potentially handing a swing seat to Democrats? Will a man who served jail time for storming the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, return there as a U.S. representative?

These are just three of the 10 elections we’re watching in the Maryland, Nebraska and West Virginia primaries on Tuesday. Here’s what you need to know about all of them.

West Virginia

Races to watch: Senate; 1st and 2nd congressional districts; governor
Polls close: 7:30 p.m. Eastern

When Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin announced he was retiring in November, West Virginia’s U.S. Senate seat became an almost automatic Republican pickup — and the GOP primary became the only game in town. But what was once expected to be a firecracker of a fight between Gov. Jim Justice and Rep. Alex Mooney has fizzled. Former President Donald Trump endorsed Justice in October, and the anti-establishment Club for Growth has not come through with the $10 million it originally planned to spend for Mooney, who is aligned with the far-right obstructionist wing of the GOP. As a result, Justice leads Mooney 60 percent to 26 percent in 538’s average of primary polls of the race.

But in the wake of their Senate candidacies, Justice and Mooney have made space for packed primaries for their old seats. Three old West Virginia political families are jockeying to be heir to the governor‘s throne. The Republican primary features former state Del. Moore Capito, the son of Sen. Shelley Moore Capito; car dealer Chris Miller, the son of Rep. Carol Miller; and Secretary of State Mac Warner, whose father and brother were both state legislators. However, the front-runner is a relative newcomer to the state: Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (whose first campaign was for New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District in 2000).

Trump has not endorsed in this race, but (so?) the candidates have been tripping over each other to prove they are the most pro-Trump — and, in a state that recently banned gender-affirming care, the most anti-transgender. For example, a pro-Morrisey PAC has hammered Miller for “pro-transgender events” (its language for drag shows and a free clothing closet for transgender students) at Marshall University, where Miller served on the board of governors until last year. Meanwhile, supporters of Miller have hit back at Morrisey for being a lobbyist for a “drug company that helps turn boys into girls” in an ad that also unsubtly pokes fun at Morrisey’s height and weight.

Thanks to his ability to self-fund, Miller has spent twice as much money as Morrisey, $6.2 million to $3.1 million. However, polls indicate it hasn’t done that much to boost his support. Instead, it is Capito who looks like he poses the biggest threat to Morrisey: Since April 1, he has risen from 16 percent to 26 percent in 538’s polling average of the race, within striking distance of Morrisey at 33 percent (Miller is at 20 percent, and Warner is at 12 percent). Capito recently received the endorsement of Justice himself and, if he wins, would likely govern in the incumbent’s back-slapping, deal-making style; the Club for Growth- and Americans for Prosperity-endorsed Morrisey, though, is more of a hardliner.

Meanwhile, five Republicans are vying to succeed Mooney in West Virginia’s 2nd District, but one has almost all of the institutional support. State Treasurer Riley Moore has been endorsed by both establishment Republicans (former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce) and tea partiers (Mooney, Americans for Prosperity) alike. And yes, he is also one of those Moores — Shelley Moore Capito is his aunt. He’s the leading fundraiser in the race with $883,000 in contributions and is the strong favorite to win the primary, although retired Air Force Brigadier General Chris Walker has raised a competitive $732,000 as well.

We wonder if the Republican primary for West Virginia’s 1st District will actually prove more interesting, though. Incumbent Carol Miller is running here and hasn’t done anything to upset the GOP base, but she is facing a robust challenge from former state Del. Derrick Evans. Evans is no ordinary former state legislator, though. He served all of 40 days in office, from Dec. 1, 2020, to Jan. 9, 2021, when he resigned three days after entering the U.S. Capitol as part of the pro-Trump mob attempting to stop certification of the 2020 election. He pleaded guilty to a felony civil disorder charge and served three months in jail, but he is now singing a different tune for his GOP primary campaign, defending the Jan. 6 insurrection and condemning his prosecution.

And Evans may have a serious shot. Bolstered by the endorsements of far-right Rep. Bob Good and Trump allies like pillow salesman Mike Lindell and former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn, he has raised almost as much money as Miller: $982,000 to $783,000. There’s no public polling in this race, but Miller appears to be looking over her shoulder. She recently started airing negative ads against Evans, attacking him for being, of all things, too liberal.

Maryland

Races to watch: Senate; 2nd, 3rd and 6th congressional districts
Polls close: 8 p.m. Eastern

Unlike West Virginia, the key matchups in Maryland are mostly Democratic primaries. The highest-profile race is for Senate, which sits open after the retirement of Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin. The lure of that prize in the solidly blue state has produced an expensive and increasingly negative Democratic primary between Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobooks and Rep. David Trone. But the candidacy of Republican Larry Hogan, the popular former governor who has only minor opposition for the GOP nomination, has made the prospect of a competitive general election a big focus of the Trone-Alsobrooks clash.

The two Democrats’ backgrounds and financial positions are a study in contrasts. Trone, who is white, represents western Maryland, including part of the Washington, D.C., suburbs. Before entering politics, he made millions as co-founder of Total Wine & More, which has enabled him to spend nearly $62 million out of his pocket in his Senate bid, as of May 6. Alsobrooks, who is Black, is a former prosecutor who now leads the most populous majority-Black county in the country, which sits to the east of the nation’s capital. Her campaign had raised $7.8 million as of April 24 with no self-funding, which would be a decent amount for most Senate races but pales in comparison to Trone’s total.

This huge financial gap has given Trone a major leg up in appealing to voters. Last week, AdImpact reported that Trone had spent $45.7 million on ads to Alsobrooks’s $3.9 million. While Trone has argued that he’s a better bet to win against Hogan than Alsobrooks, she has played up her strong backing from most of Maryland’s high-profile Democrats — including the state’s other senator, Chris Van Hollen — and her support for abortion rights.

However, race has been an unavoidable subject in this contest. Trone has emphasized his support from Black officeholders who hail from Alsobrooks’s base in Prince George’s County, including an ad in which one local official said the Senate is “not a place for training wheels.” That line drew a rebuke from a group of Black women for being “disparaging and dismissive” and tinged with “misogyny and racism.” Trone also raised ire in March when he used a racial slur during a hearing, saying later that he meant to say “bugaboo.” But Trone’s ads have also made specific appeals to Black and Latino voters and he has endorsements from some notable Black leaders, including state Attorney General Anthony Brown. Alsobrooks, who’d be Maryland’s first Black senator, has highlighted how her background — unlike Trone’s — differs from the mostly white and male makeup of the Senate.

More broadly, the state’s Democratic electorate will be almost evenly divided between white and Black voters, and past elections like this have produced clear racial fissures. This marks Maryland’s third straight open-seat Senate race with a Democratic primary featuring a major Black and white candidate. In both 2006 and 2016, the white contenders (Cardin and Van Hollen, respectively) won competitive races by carrying every part of the state except its three predominantly-Black localities (Prince George’s County, Baltimore City and Charles County). But while Trone led in primary polls up through early April, an early May survey from Emerson College/The Hill/DC News Now found Alsobrooks with a slight edge — 47 percent to 44 percent when including leaners — a sign that the race is neck-and-neck. Alsobrooks’s name recognition deficit versus Trone appears to have shrunk, likely aided by developments such as The Washington Post’s endorsement.

Trone’s Senate bid has opened up the 6th District, a seat President Joe Biden would’ve carried by about 10 percentage points in 2020, according to Daily Kos Elections. This makes it Maryland’s only remotely competitive House district, a reality that has attracted a huge number of candidates — 16 Democrats are on the ballot (a couple have technically dropped out) and seven Republicans.

For Democrats, former Commerce Department official April McClain Delaney and state Del. Joe Vogel look like the front-runners. McClain Delaney’s name may sound familiar: Her husband, former Rep. John Delaney, represented the old version of this district for three terms. Running on her Biden connections and work to keep kids safe online, McClain Delaney has self-funded a bit more than half of the $1.9 million she’s raised, and she has some high-profile endorsements, including from The Washington Post. Meanwhile, Vogel is a 27-year-old Latino legislator who is also gay and Jewish. He has raised $687,000 and enjoys endorsements from the powerful state teachers union and the LGBTQ+ Victory Fund. He’s also received nearly $400,000 in outside spending help from the pro-LGBTQ Equality PAC, according to OpenSecrets. Competing surveys show a close race: A late April Public Policy Polling survey conducted for the pro-Vogel Equality PAC found the leading contenders tied at 24 percent, but an early May Garin-Hart-Yang survey for McClain Delaney’s campaign gave her a 37-percent-to- 24-percent lead.

On the Republican side, the two most well-known contenders are former state delegates: Neil Parrott, who lost to Trone in 2020 and 2022, and Dan Cox, who lost as the GOP nominee in Maryland’s 2022 gubernatorial contest. Parrott has raised $271,000, while Cox has only brought in $123,000. But Cox may be buoyed by his indefatigable support for Trump’s unfounded claims that Biden’s 2020 victory was illegitimate — a view that around two-thirds of Republicans still subscribe to nationally. Four other candidates may also have a shot here. Former Naval fighter pilot Tom Royals leads the field in fundraising with $521,000, Air Force veteran Mariela Roca has brought in $274,000 and retired state trooper Chris Hyser has raised $155,000 and has received some outside spending support. Lastly, former state Del. Brenda Thiam is another familiar face for local Republicans, although she’s only raised about $50,000.

Running between Washington, D.C., and Baltimore, the solidly blue 3rd District sits open following the retirement of Democratic Rep. John Sarbanes. A whopping 22 Democratic candidates filed for the primary ballot, including five state legislators. But the money in this race has centered on former Capitol Hill police officer Harry Dunn and state Sen. Sarah Elfreth, making them the two leading contenders, although state Sen. Clarence Lam may have an outside shot.

Dunn became prominent after he testified before Congress in July 2021 about defending the Capitol against insurrectionists on Jan. 6, 2021, later receiving a Presidential Citizens Medal from Biden for his service. Notably, his campaign launch video featured him speaking to camera while walking through a recreation of the events of Jan. 6. His announcement precipitated a money monsoon: Dunn raised more without self-funding in the first quarter of 2024 ($3.8 million) than any other non-incumbent House candidate, including millions from online donors. Overall, he’s raised $4.6 million, which has allowed him to run ads emphasizing his background, an endorsement from Rep. Nancy Pelosi and his goal to protect democracy by pushing back against corruption and greed in Washington. Dunn has loose ties to the 3rd District area, however, as he lives in Montgomery County closer to the nation’s capital, which makes his ad spending even more critical to introduce himself to voters.

By comparison, Elfreth likely started out better-known, as around 60 percent of her Annapolis-based state Senate seat lies in the 3rd District, according to Daily Kos Elections. She’s raised about $1.5 million, but Elfreth has also received $4.2 million in outside spending support from United Democracy Project, the bipartisan American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s super PAC. Despite AIPAC’s pro-Israel policy focus, UDP’s ads have emphasized Elfreth’s effectiveness as a legislator and work to protect abortion rights. For his part, Lam has raised $736,000, but he sat in third with 8 percent in a late April survey for Dunn’s campaign conducted by Upswing Research, while Dunn narrowly led Elfreth 22 percent to 18 percent.

Lastly, the retirement of Democratic Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger has left the solidly blue 2nd District open, making the seat’s Democratic primary the main event. In that race, Baltimore County Executive John “Johnny O” Olszewski looks favored against state Del. Harry Bhandari, thanks in part to a sizable fundraising edge: Olszewski has brought in $837,000 to Bhandari’s $181,000. And Baltimore County as a whole makes up about three-fourths of the seat’s population, making Olszewski a familiar face to 2nd District voters.

Nebraska

Races to watch: 2nd Congressional District
Polls close: 9 p.m. Eastern

Nebraska has a busy electoral slate on Tuesday, but only one primary looks potentially intriguing: the GOP contest in the Omaha-based 2nd District. Republican Rep. Don Bacon is seeking reelection, but Biden would have carried the seat by 6 points in 2020 and Bacon only won reelection by about 3 points in 2022 against Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas. Bacon’s reputation as a relative moderate has helped him hold onto this purple seat, but it’s also made him potentially vulnerable to a more conservative primary challenger. That has made the campaign of Dan Frei, an Omaha businessman running to Bacon’s right, one to monitor on Tuesday. Though it’s unlikely given the incumbent’s fundraising advantage and outside spending support, were Frei to upset Bacon, that would likely make the 2nd District more winnable in November for Vargas, who has raised $2.4 million for an anticipated rematch against Bacon.