Why Texas-sized ALCS could feature serious scoring explosion

Houston and its rival in Arlington each posted a 90–72 record in the regular season—with the Astros claiming yet another AL West crown via the tiebreaker—and both squads are hot in October. The defending champions advanced to their seventh straight (!) ALCS appearance in a four-game ALDS dispatching of the Minnesota Twins. Texas is undefeated thus far in the postseason after sweeping a pair of AL East squads in Tampa and Baltimore. But there is one element of this intrastate battle that we should feel comfortable predicting in the lead-up to Sunday night. The pennant-deciding series should feature some seriously high-scoring contests, with two potent offenses currently finding their rhythm at the right time. 

For those unfamiliar with the mashers in Arlington, a brief primer: the Rangers led the American League in runs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS this season, riding what was for much of the season baseball’s deepest lineup outside of Atlanta. Eight Texas hitters posted an OPS+ above league average in 2023. Of the American League’s top 16 extra-base-hit producers this season, four are in the Rangers’ lineup. Shortstop Corey Seager is the best left-handed hitter in baseball not named Yordan Alvarez, and middle-infield mate Marcus Semien is one of the league’s most consistent producers.

Texas made major free-agent investments in recent years after a slide into the AL West cellar. Its spending is paying off, augmenting a deep collection of young bats now ready for the American League’s biggest stage. 

We rarely saw the best version of Houston’s offense this summer as inconsistency and a host of injuries plagued the lineup. As we saw in the ALDS, this Astros’ group is still plenty potent at full strength. 

Game 1 on Sunday night will likely be the best chance we have for any sort of pitching duel in this year’s ALCS. Former and once again Astros ace Justin Verlander will take the mound for Houston, while Nathan Eovaldi—one of baseball’s best playoff pitchers in recent years—is expected to start for Texas. The time for first pitch on Sunday (and the rest of the ALCS) has yet to be announced as of Thursday.