Valero Texas Open Live Odds and Prediction: Will Anyone Catch Brian Harman?

We haven’t heard from Brian Harman much since he blew away the field in his improbable win at the 2023 Open Championship, but the 38-year-old finds himself with a commanding lead heading into the final round of this week’s Valero Texas Open.

At 12-under-par, he’s three strokes ahead of Andrew Novak and second place, four strokes ahead of Tom Hoge in solo third, and five strokes in front of Keith Mitchell in solo fourth. Can anyone catch him on Sunday? Let’s take a look at the live odds heading into the final round, and then I’ll break down who I’m betting on.

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

At -175 odds, Harman has an implied probability of winning of 63.64%.

I do agree Brian Harman has a better than 50% chance of winning this event, but I disagree with his odds. I think -175 (63.64%) is too steep considering how volatile this course has been this week.

Instead, I think there’s value on the golfer sitting in solo second, Andrew Novak.

If I’m going to target a golfer to storm a comeback in the final round, we’re going to need a guy who can rack up plenty of birdies, which typically leads me to look at a golfer with strong approach numbers. Novak is that guy. He gained +1.53 strokes on the field with his irons in Round 1 and then +2.15 strokes with his approach in Round 3, the best amongst all golfers in contention.

He lost strokes in the second round, so his tournament-long approach numbers aren’t quite as high as you’d expect, but considering he has put together two phenomenal rounds with his ball striking, including his best on Saturday, he will be in a great position just three strokes back from Harman.

Pick: Andrew Novak +450 (via FanDuel)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain’s bets here!