Texas vs Kentucky: Why Longhorns face a trap laid by SEC schedule

During the second half of the 2024 college football season, ranked teams lost to unranked opposition on 30 occasions. In eight of those instances, the unranked team crafted the upset directly after its bye, benefiting from a second week to prepare. 

That’s the circumstance No. 21 Texas football faces this week. Reclaiming a place in the AP Top 25 with an emotional rivalry victory over Oklahoma, the Longhorns will now encounter a scuffling Kentucky team that hasn’t played since Oct. 4. 

The trap, contrived by the SEC’s scheduling algorithm, is set. How can the Longhorns avoid it?

MORE: Going 3-1 in October is a must for Texas football’s razor-thin CFP path in 2025

“They’ve had some extended time to look at what we do,” Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said Monday. “We have to do a good job of scouting ourselves. I’m sure they’re going to do some things that our opponents have done in previous weeks that caused us problems. So we have to see the forest through the trees here a little bit and not just get so focused on what’s right in front of us.” 

It’s crucial, Sarkisian explained, for the Longhorns to understand how they’ve been hurt by their previous opposition coming into this kind of game. What pressure packages have harried quarterback Arch Manning? Which offensive schemes have flummoxed Texas’ defense? What happened on special teams that allowed Florida to block a punt in Week 6?

By answering these questions, Texas can prepare itself for bye week schemes Kentucky might design specifically to target the Longhorns (4-2, 1-1 SEC). 

“Prep for some things that Kentucky hasn’t shown yet, but they clearly could do with some extended time to prepare for us,” Sarkisian said. 

The Wildcats spent much of their open week looking inward, according to coach Mark Stoops. 

Kentucky (2-3, 0-3) is one of just two SEC teams still without a win over a Power 4 opponent. It has scored just 40 total points in three SEC games. The Wildcats’ last two foes, Georgia and South Carolina, have each hung 35 points on them.

The needs presented by their situation shaped their bye week approach, Stoops said. 

“It was probably 70% Kentucky and 30% Texas, just because we felt like we needed the work,” Stoops said Wednesday. “That varies sometimes on when the byes fall and what kind of team you have and how many practices you have, all of those things. I just felt like we needed a lot of work. I felt like we got better and still got a jump on Texas as well.” 

The short-term benefits offered by bye weeks aren’t always generated by spending more time scouting the opponent. Open weeks present advantages associated with rest and health. 

MORE: Texas football transfers Jerrick Gibson, Will Stone ‘essentially opted out’

Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea, whose team laid arguably the most notable bye-week trap of the 2024 campaign when it upset then-No. 1 Alabama, said he thinks there’s a “negative return” associated with spending too much time on the opponent. The Commodores are coming off their first bye of 2025 this week as they host LSU, and Lea said he devoted one extra practice to preparing for the Tigers. 

“We need to make sure we’re banking the learning, week in and week out,” Lea said. “It’s a good self-scout, systems review. We practiced three days last week, and each day we had a specific focus in terms of game-plan area that we needed to address.” 

The Longhorns have already lost once this season to a team coming off a bye week. Expecting to see two-high safety looks from the Florida defense in Week 6, Texas instead found itself smothered by a Gators unit that unleashed its pass rush and dared the Longhorns to throw the ball deep. 

Throughout his career, though, Sarkisian has managed this type of situation well. He owns a 62% career win rate overall and has won 65% of regular-season games against opponents coming off byes. 

MORE: Why Steve Sarkisian says improvement for Texas QB starts with his eyes

At Kentucky, Stoops hasn’t capitalized on many of these opportunities. The Wildcats are 6-10 coming off bye weeks since Stoops took charge in 2013, and one of those wins came against an FCS school. 

This week, his chances of success hinge on Kentucky’s ability to ready redshirt freshman quarterback Cutter Boley for the moment. Since stepping in for the injured Zach Calzada, Boley has completed 57.1% of his passes for 627 yards with four touchdowns and three interceptions. He showed flashes when the Wildcats visited Royal-Memorial Stadium last year, throwing for 160 yards on 18 attempts with an interception against the Longhorns. And Stoops praised the youngster for his performance at Georgia last time out, when he completed 25 of his 41 attempts for 225 yards and two touchdowns with one interception. The coach designed his bye week practice plan to give Boley more “fastball looks” against his first-team defense. 

“I’ve been pleased with his progress. We need to continue to see that growth. He made very much a big improvement between his first start this year and his second, so hopefully we’ll continue to see that improvement.”