SEC tiebreakers: Alabama vs. Texas-Texas A&M winner is new likeliest title game scenario

For all who love chaos, the potential eight-team tie for first place in the SEC is sadly over. The potential six-team tie, however, remains very much alive after Saturday’s action.

But clarity is nearing on who will play in the SEC championship: If no more upsets occur, Alabama would likely play the winner of the Texas at Texas A&M regular-season finale.

Of course, more upsets could occur.

Here are the updated standings at the top of the league. All three-loss teams are officially eliminated from championship game consideration because Georgia and one of Texas and Texas A&M are guaranteed to finish with two (or fewer) losses. That includes LSU and Missouri, which each suffered their third conference loss on Saturday.

There is one clean, but not very likely, way for first and second place to be settled: Texas and Texas A&M both win next week, and Tennessee, Ole Miss and Alabama all lose at least one more game. That would leave Georgia playing the winner of Texas at Texas A&M.

Otherwise, this will come down to the newly installed SEC tiebreakers, which are all based on conference play, and also heavily contingent on teams playing each other — which most of the time they have not, thanks to a 16-team league in which each team plays an eight-game schedule.

The first tiebreaker is head-to-head, whether among just two teams or three-plus teams. The second is record vs. common opponents. The third is record against top teams in the standings and working your way down, but that’s contingent on the teams involved in those first three tiebreakers having played the same teams. Georgia has played all the other contenders except Texas A&M, going 2-2, but Alabama has only played Georgia and Tennessee, Texas will have only played Georgia and Texas A&M, and so on. There are few if any scenarios where everyone involved in a tiebreaker will have played each other.

Simply put, it is unlikely any of the top three tiebreakers will settle it.

Therefore the most likely solution will be the fourth tiebreaker: The combined record of teams’ conference opponents, in essence, schedule strength. As of now, here are the combined opponents’ record for the six contenders, including future opponents. (But not assuming results of games yet to be played.)

The records will change, but probably not too drastically, as there are just 12 conference games left. Again, the above standings already include each team’s future conference opponents’ records, just not any results. That’s why Alabama is in the best position right now — unless it loses at Oklahoma next week, or against Auburn. One loss and it’s out. The same goes for Ole Miss and Tennessee.

The picture got a bit clearer on Saturday. But it’s still murky enough to be interesting.

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(Photo of Alabama’s Ryan Williams: Brandon Sumrall / Getty Images)