How to watch Tuesday election night results without jumping to conclusions

Races to look at

You’re most likely acquainted with the highest of the ticket: Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, versus his Democratic challenger, Beto O’Rourke. Past that, there are a number of vastly vital statewide election positions up for grabs. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, a Republican who presides over the state Senate, is up towards Democrat Mike Collier. And Republican Legal professional Normal Ken Paxton, whose aggressive lawsuits towards the Biden administration and social media firms make him nationally influential, faces Democrat Rochelle Garza. There are additionally statewide races for agriculture commissioner, land commissioner, comptroller, state Supreme Court docket and Court docket of Prison Appeals. In all statewide races, the Republicans are closely favored.

Essentially the most rigidity will seemingly be in South Texas, the place three congressional races are gaining nationwide consideration. U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar, a reasonable Democrat from Laredo, faces Cassy Garcia. U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, a Democrat who’s working in a brand new district after Republicans focused him in redistricting, faces U.S. Rep. Mayra Flores, a Republican who received a particular election for the seat earlier this yr after the incumbent Democrat resigned. And Republican Monica De La Cruz and Democrat Michelle Valejo are squaring off for Gonzalez’s previous seat, which was redrawn to provide Republicans a greater likelihood to win it. If Republicans can win two of these seats, will probably be a lift to their efforts to win over Hispanic voters. In the event that they win all three, it’ll be a political earthquake.

The Texas Legislature’s redrawing of district traces final yr has restricted the quantity of aggressive races elsewhere on the poll. Moreover the three South Texas seats, no different congressional races are being hotly contested. In 2020, individuals thought Democrats may achieve management of the Texas Home. This yr, it’s unlikely the partisan breakdown will change all that a lot from the GOP’s 85-65 benefit within the state Home and 18-13 benefit within the state Senate.

One fascinating native race to control: Harris County Decide Lina Hidalgo has been considered as a future star of the statewide Democratic Get together — however native Republicans are hopeful that Alexandra del Ethical Mealer can pull off a surprising upset and unseat her this yr.

Maintain this in thoughts whereas watching the outcomes

For those who’re preserving a detailed eye on the outcomes, it’s best to comply with one overarching rule: Don’t soar to conclusions. Latest political fights round voting and election administration have had delicate however important impacts on how election evening will seemingly play out. Maintain these in thoughts as you consider who’s going to win and whether or not you assume something alarming is occurring.

One cause it’s best to train warning: Voting habits appear to be shifting. Previously, voters who forged their ballots by mail had been usually extra more likely to be Republicans than Democrats, partly as a result of mail-in voting is open to anybody over 65, and older voters lean Republican. In 2018, 42% of people that voted by mail had primarily voted in GOP primaries, in contrast with 31% Democratic major voters, based on numbers crunched by GOP voter information skilled Derek Ryan.

However Donald Trump’s railing towards mail-in voting in 2020 and subsequent efforts to forged doubts on the safety of mail-in ballots appear to have satisfied extra Republicans to vote on Election Day. A Quinnipiac ballot of Texas in late September discovered that 64% of voters who deliberate to vote by mail deliberate to vote for O’Rourke. Fifty-three % of people that mentioned they meant to vote early mentioned they’d vote for O’Rourke. In the meantime, 75% of voters who mentioned they meant to vote on Election Day mentioned they meant to vote for Abbott. That’s just one ballot — and it’s dangerous to attract conclusions from only one ballot. However it means that Democrats might wish to mood their enthusiasm if the numbers for O’Rourke and different Democrats look sturdy early within the evening. It’s doable that solely the early votes could have been counted — and that the Election Day numbers may look a lot worse for his or her candidates.

Spectators must also train warning in the event that they see something that appears a bit irregular. Elections in Texas are decentralized. The work of establishing polling stations and tabulating votes is finished by the counties. And in a state with 254 counties, minor issues are virtually sure to emerge. An overworked ballot employee sorts a quantity flawed into a pc. The facility goes out at a polling place. An election employee doesn’t perceive a rule about voter ID necessities.

None of these, on their very own, are affirmation of wrongdoing. These are sometimes indicators that elections are messy in Texas, and that there’s room for enchancment — not essentially indications of widespread fraud. Counties have methods in place to verify each vote is counted and errors are fastened. Many easy errors can be rapidly corrected.

However grumbling typically occurs. Have a look at Harris County, the place lots of drama typically happens. Vote counting typically goes on for hours there, normally into Wednesday morning. Practically yearly, there are issues raised by state employees, native partisans and journalists on Twitter about how lengthy it is going to take or is taking. However take into account that Harris County has a bigger inhabitants than Kentucky. It’s concerning the geographic measurement of Delaware. And it has greater than 700 voting facilities unfold out amongst its 1,700 sq. miles. It’s after all going to take a very long time to collect and rely its votes.

Different counties, too, will certainly have points pop up that may make vote counting take longer there. Many instances, these minor points will generate little discover as a result of they received’t have an effect on how the foremost races are known as.

But when a race is very tight, it’s doable we received’t know the winner on election evening. The truth is, it’s a assure that each one votes received’t be counted by the tip of Nov. 8. In Texas, absentee voters can ship their ballots on Election Day, so long as their ballots are postmarked by 7 p.m. and acquired by the county election workplace by 5 p.m. the subsequent day. Accomplished ballots from abroad army voters are accepted in the event that they’re acquired as much as 5 days after Election Day. Normally that doesn’t matter, as a result of the variety of ballots we’re speaking about is comparatively small — not sufficient to flip the election. But when a race is shut sufficient, it would make a distinction.

And if a race is shut sufficient, candidates are allowed to request a recount. The state legislation round recounts is a bit advanced: If the margin of victory is lower than 10% of the variety of votes the main vote-getter acquired, the second-place finisher can name for a recount. (For example, if candidate A will get 2,000 votes and candidate B will get 1,850 votes, the margin of 150 is lower than 200, which is 10% of two,000, so candidate B can name for a recount.) If a recount is requested, it may take days or perhaps weeks to find out a remaining outcome.

Ready previous Election Day to be taught the result is just not all that uncommon. This has occurred a number of instances in Congressional District 23 lately. Within the 2020 Republican major runoff, Raul Reyes was down by 45 votes on the finish of election evening. One month and 7 days later, he conceded after his deficit had been narrowed by solely six votes.

Within the 2018 basic election, Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones trailed Republican incumbent Will Hurd by round 1,000 votes. She went to courtroom to increase the canvassing deadline within the race as she sought to be taught extra about provisional ballots that had been forged within the race — and even attended the congressional orientation whereas the matter was being litigated. In the end, she conceded practically two weeks after Election Day.

Disclosure: The Texas secretary of state has been a monetary supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan information group that’s funded partly by donations from members, foundations and company sponsors. Monetary supporters play no position within the Tribune’s journalism. Discover a full checklist of them right here.

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