Declining birth rates are testing North Texas school districts

As public schools in North Texas begin a new school year, they are also adjusting to a new reality.

While the region boasts greater economic strength and is planning infrastructure for a growing population in the next decade, educators are seeing a different story — persistently lower student enrollment with all signs pointing to this as our future.

Richardson ISD has a student population of about 37,000 and is among the most diverse in North Texas. But it is already closing some elementary schools this year and is projecting a decrease of roughly 3,600 students over the next five years. Irving ISD lost about 4,000 students in the last decade. Dallas ISD, the largest school district in the region, lost about 18,000 students from 2012 to 2023.

Well, of course, you might think: Families are moving to Collin County for the schools. That’s true to a degree, but dig into the enrollment numbers and you find that Collin County suburbs are facing similar issues. There are just fewer children, and especially young children in these central parts of our region.

Plano is already facing enrollment decline. Frisco, the city where people move for the schools, is seeing a flattening of the curve in student population growth.

Over the past 12 years, Plano ISD has seen enrollment decrease by 7,750 students, a district spokesperson said. District trustees voted earlier this year to close four schools. And although Frisco ISD isn’t facing declining enrollment or school closures, the pearl of North Texas districts hasn’t been experiencing the explosive growth it saw over the last decade or so. Between 2024 and 2030, the district is projecting slower growth.

We can expect the trend to be steeper in Dallas. Between 2012 and 2022, the population of children under 5 years old in Dallas County decreased by 9.5%, and the number of children under 9 years old went down by 3%, census data shows.

North Texas public schools are adjusting to this new reality at a moment when traditional public schools are facing more competition and political pressure. Independent school districts are dealing with budget constraints. Meanwhile, a push for private school vouchers in Austin is gathering strength.

Many complex factors are involved in the enrollment numbers schools are seeing. But the major underlying cause is this — birth rates are declining.

But what about immigration, you might ask. A key demographic driving lower birth rates is Hispanics. In Texas, this trend began during the 2008 recession, Texas State Demographer Lloyd Potter told us.

“Hispanics, not only in Texas, but nationwide, are now a multigenerational population,” Potter said. “The Latino population is more likely to gain educational attainment, and more likely to enter the labor force later compared to their parents and grandparents. This results in delayed childbirth.”

In other words, don’t count on immigration to resolve the demographic decline that is affecting schools. North Texas is growing, but even with huge numbers of immigrant families living within the district boundaries of Dallas, Richardson and Plano ISDs, we are losing kids.

It’s important to stress that changing demographics are not the whole story. The pandemic, for example, had a profound effect on public school enrollment. Housing prices and school quality are also important factors.

Since 2019, the year before the pandemic, Dallas County school districts have lost 4% of their students, according to an analysis by the Commit Partnership, an education nonprofit.

In the same period, charter school enrollment grew by 10%, and the private school share of students in the county continues to grow. Nationwide, there is also a turn to homeschooling. Texas accounted for 6% of the total homeschool enrollment in 2024, up from 3% in 2023, according to a census analysis.

It’s unlikely, though, that even with children pulling off to charter, private and home schools, that this can account for the much lower traditional public school enrollment we are seeing. And that’s the demographic problem.

That means more school closures and consolidations are coming, even as public schools are having to compete harder for the kids they get. Superintendents and school boards are aware of this, and many are adjusting well, our view.

We stand by this statement: Dallas ISD is one of, if not the most, innovative urban school districts in the country. For years, the district has been taking important steps to continue to attract new students despite facing ongoing enrollment declines.

DISD, as well as other Dallas County districts, are now focused on implementing high-quality instructional materials — better standard curricula and actual books and workbooks — that we think are going to show better outcomes for all students. We already know there is far more school choice within DISD and inner-ring suburban districts so that parents don’t have to rely on a single neighborhood school that might not serve their child.

There are also a lot of bright spots outside of DISD, like Garland and Cedar Hill ISDs. Garland made consistent progress in algebra in the last few years, and Cedar Hill showed an above-average performance in reading and math in the latest STAAR scores.

All of this is good news for our local schools. But the administrators of these schools know that change is coming, and in many cases has already arrived.

The children just aren’t here the way they were. And there may be no changing that.

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