Colin Allred two points behind Ted Cruz in second Texas poll

Democrat Texas Senate hopeful Colin Allred is just two points behind Republican incumbent Ted Cruz, according to a second poll in a matter of days.

A survey from the Clean and Prosperous America PAC, an environmentalist advocacy group that campaigns for Democratic Party candidates, showed Cruz ahead of congressman Allred by 47 percent to 45 percent. The results are similar to a YouGov/University of Houston poll released on August 22, which also showed Allred about two points behind Cruz (46.6 percent to 44.5 percent).

The Clean and Prosperous America survey also suggests the Senate race in Florida between Sen. Rick Scott and former congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell could be very competitive. The poll shows that Scott is up by 3 points against Mucarsel-Powell (48 percent to 45 percent), which is among the closest margin of any public poll.

A number of Democratic figures have suggested that Texas and Florida—both considered strong red states—could be in play in November in the Senate races, and the presidential election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

If Allred were to flip the Texas senate seat from Cruz in November, he would become the first Democrat senator in the Lone Star state since 1988.

The Clean and Prosperous America poll shows Trump is leading Harris in Texas by 5 points (49 percent to 44 percent) and by 4 points in Florida (51 percent to 47 percent).

Greg Rock, executive director of the Clean and Prosperous America PAC, said in a statement: “The results of these two surveys show that both Florida and Texas are competitive states in the general election. Senators Rick Scott and Ted Cruz are unpopular and narrowly lead their opponents despite their incumbency.

“It’s too early to predict exactly who will vote in November or what the outcome will be,” Rock added. “But this snapshot shows that voters in Texas and Florida have clear choices ahead of them and might surprise the pundits and forecasters.”

Allred’s and Cruz’s offices were contacted for comment via email.

An Allred victory in Texas would be a major boost for the Democratic Party’s bid to hold on to the Senate after November’s elections.

The Democrats currently control the upper chamber by a 51-49 seat margin, including four independent senators who caucus or align with the party. The GOP is widely expected to flip the West Virginia seat held by outgoing Democrat-turned-independent senator Joe Manchin in November.

A previous University of Houston/Texas Southern University (TSU) poll released in July showed Cruz leading Allred by 3points (47 percent to 44).

The results revealed Allred had drastically cut the margin down from the 9-point lead Cruz held over his Democratic rival in the same poll late last year.

Michael Adams, director of the Executive Master of Public Administration graduate program at TSU, suggested that Allred is becoming more popular as his name recognition grows.

“As a congressman from Dallas, he wasn’t well-known in the rest of the state, but as a result of winning the primary and months of campaigning and advertising, his name ID has increased, and support has nudged up by 5 points,” Adams said.

The Clean and Prosperous America poll showing Allred behind Cruz by 2 points was conducted just prior to Allred giving a speech at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.

Election forecasters Race to the White House are giving Cruz a 66 percent chance of winning November’s Texas Senate race, with Allred estimated to have a 34 percent chance. This is down from the 73 percent chance Race to the White House was giving Cruz in July.

The Clean and Prosperous America poll surveyed 837 registered voters in Florida and 725 in Texas between August 21-22. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percent in Florida and 3.6 percent in Texas.