2024 North Texas Football Prediction & Preview With Betting Odds, Schedule, Key Returners & Outlook

It could be argued the first season in the AAC and the first year under head coach Eric Morris went probably about as most would expect for North Texas. 

UNTʻs win total Over/Under was set at 6 entering the season. The Mean Green barely fell short of that number, going 5-7 and 3-5 in league play. 

Despite a new coach and transitioning to a tougher league, UNT still competed well. It dropped five one-score games — three of them to Tulane, UTSA, and Memphis. This was part of a brutal four-game stretch that also included a visit to SMU. 

On a four-game losing skid entering Week 12 after this tough stretch, the Mean Green grinded it out and finished on a two-game win streak. That says a lot about Morris and the culture he is trying to establish.

There was certainly a lot learned last year for this program, especially on the defensive side of the ball. We’ll see if they can turn those learning curves into wins in Year 2 under Morris. 

North Texas’ odds to win the AAC are +2200, via BetMGM.

North Texas’ win total Over/Under is 5.5, with the Over at -135 and the Under at +110.

8/31 at South Alabama

9/7 vs Stephen F. Austin

9/14 at Texas Tech

9/21 vs Wyoming

9/28 vs Tulsa

10/12 at FAU

10/19 at Memphis

10/26 vs Tulane

11/9 vs Army

11/15 at UTSA

11/23 vs East Carolina

11/30 at Temple

Bold indicates AAC contests

2023 All-AAC Third Team

LB Jordan Brown

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North Texas’ Rush Defense Must Improve

I remember watching North Texas play Cal during Week 1 last season. Granted, he is one of the best running backs in the country, but I still couldn’t believe how silly Jaydn Ott made the Mean Green’s defense look. Ott finished that game with 188 yards and two scores, averaging 9.4 yards per carry.

Come to find out, that was just the start of what would plague UNT all season long. Not only did its defense finish last in the entire FBS in rushing yards allowed per game (255.2), but it also ranked dead last in total defense after allowing 476.4 yards per game. It’s a surprise and a testament to their offense the Mean Green finished with five wins after giving up 37 points per game. 

Teams were able to do whatever they wanted on the ground against the Mean Green all year. This, of course, opened up the playbook. If the defense is going to be better, it starts with stopping the run. 

Morris brought in a few transfers on the defensive line to do this, including Jake Shipley from Oregon, who should make a big difference. Starters Roderick Brown and Fatafehi Vailea II return on the DL with a ton of experience and should be motivated after last season. 

The Mean Green had some linebackers who struggled to stop the run last year and who are no longer on the roster. Jordan Brown (82) and Ethan Wesloski (63) were first and third on the roster in total tackles, respectively, and will return but must and should improve. Isheem Young comes in from Ole Miss, and the safety should play a hybrid role and will be key in stopping the run.

With 2022 All-Conference USA first-team cornerback Ridge Texada coming back and three transfers coming in, the Mean Green should have a decent secondary.

On the other side of the ball, quarterback Chandler Morris will lead the offense after transferring from TCU where he passed for 1,532 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2023. He has a solid target in Damon Ward Jr. and a strong offensive line. With Eric Morris’ past success guiding offenses, this group will have some potential. He did once coach a guy named Patrick Mahomes and a high-powered Texas Tech offense.

I donʻt predict North Texas to win the AAC but there is a slight chance it can reach six wins and get to a bowl game. 

UNTʻs win total at 5.5 seems right on point as its non-conference schedule isnʻt the easiest. Thereʻs a real possibility the Mean Green are 1-3 heading into AAC play with their only non-conference win coming vs. Stephen F. Austin.

If this is the case, winning five league games might be a stretch. There are only two games where I have a lot of faith in the Mean Green coming away victorious and thatʻs against Tulsa and Temple. Their other likely shots at wins come at FAU and at home against Army and East Carolina, but none of these will be easy outings. 

Because of its schedule and roster turnover, I don’t think UNT can get to six wins. Morris will have a chance to prove his team can finish in the top half of the conference and pull off an upset or two, but I need to see it before I trust the Mean Green to go Over 5.5 wins.