Texas
2024 North Texas Football Prediction & Preview With Betting Odds, Schedule, Key Returners & Outlook
It could be argued the first season in the AAC and the first year under head coach Eric Morris went probably about as most would expect for North Texas.
UNTʻs win total Over/Under was set at 6 entering the season. The Mean Green barely fell short of that number, going 5-7 and 3-5 in league play.
Despite a new coach and transitioning to a tougher league, UNT still competed well. It dropped five one-score games — three of them to Tulane, UTSA, and Memphis. This was part of a brutal four-game stretch that also included a visit to SMU.
On a four-game losing skid entering Week 12 after this tough stretch, the Mean Green grinded it out and finished on a two-game win streak. That says a lot about Morris and the culture he is trying to establish.
There was certainly a lot learned last year for this program, especially on the defensive side of the ball. We’ll see if they can turn those learning curves into wins in Year 2 under Morris.
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North Texas’ odds to win the AAC are +2200, via BetMGM.
North Texas’ win total Over/Under is 5.5, with the Over at -135 and the Under at +110.
8/31 at South Alabama
9/7 vs Stephen F. Austin
9/14 at Texas Tech
9/21 vs Wyoming
9/28 vs Tulsa
10/12 at FAU
10/19 at Memphis
10/26 vs Tulane
11/9 vs Army
11/15 at UTSA
11/23 vs East Carolina
11/30 at Temple
Bold indicates AAC contests
2023 All-AAC Third Team
LB Jordan Brown
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North Texas’ Rush Defense Must Improve
I remember watching North Texas play Cal during Week 1 last season. Granted, he is one of the best running backs in the country, but I still couldn’t believe how silly Jaydn Ott made the Mean Green’s defense look. Ott finished that game with 188 yards and two scores, averaging 9.4 yards per carry.
Come to find out, that was just the start of what would plague UNT all season long. Not only did its defense finish last in the entire FBS in rushing yards allowed per game (255.2), but it also ranked dead last in total defense after allowing 476.4 yards per game. It’s a surprise and a testament to their offense the Mean Green finished with five wins after giving up 37 points per game.
Teams were able to do whatever they wanted on the ground against the Mean Green all year. This, of course, opened up the playbook. If the defense is going to be better, it starts with stopping the run.
Morris brought in a few transfers on the defensive line to do this, including Jake Shipley from Oregon, who should make a big difference. Starters Roderick Brown and Fatafehi Vailea II return on the DL with a ton of experience and should be motivated after last season.
The Mean Green had some linebackers who struggled to stop the run last year and who are no longer on the roster. Jordan Brown (82) and Ethan Wesloski (63) were first and third on the roster in total tackles, respectively, and will return but must and should improve. Isheem Young comes in from Ole Miss, and the safety should play a hybrid role and will be key in stopping the run.
With 2022 All-Conference USA first-team cornerback Ridge Texada coming back and three transfers coming in, the Mean Green should have a decent secondary.
On the other side of the ball, quarterback Chandler Morris will lead the offense after transferring from TCU where he passed for 1,532 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2023. He has a solid target in Damon Ward Jr. and a strong offensive line. With Eric Morris’ past success guiding offenses, this group will have some potential. He did once coach a guy named Patrick Mahomes and a high-powered Texas Tech offense.
I donʻt predict North Texas to win the AAC but there is a slight chance it can reach six wins and get to a bowl game.
UNTʻs win total at 5.5 seems right on point as its non-conference schedule isnʻt the easiest. Thereʻs a real possibility the Mean Green are 1-3 heading into AAC play with their only non-conference win coming vs. Stephen F. Austin.
If this is the case, winning five league games might be a stretch. There are only two games where I have a lot of faith in the Mean Green coming away victorious and thatʻs against Tulsa and Temple. Their other likely shots at wins come at FAU and at home against Army and East Carolina, but none of these will be easy outings.
Because of its schedule and roster turnover, I don’t think UNT can get to six wins. Morris will have a chance to prove his team can finish in the top half of the conference and pull off an upset or two, but I need to see it before I trust the Mean Green to go Over 5.5 wins.
NORTH TEXAS – One of these things is not like the others…we ONLY topped out at 90 degrees on Friday! That’s what a little cloud cover and rain will do to North Texas in August.
We even picked up a little rain at the airport!
Of course, some spots in Grayson and Somervell counties saw a few inches of rain. Some August rain without severe weather – we’ll take it!
I do have low rain chances this weekend, but it shouldn’t amount to much. Still, it’ll keep temps below normal for Saturday. By Sunday, we’re back to near 100° and we may meet heat advisory criteria if the forecast verifies.
Rain chances will be slightly higher through the morning hours Saturday for our Red River counties.
The showers become more hit and miss in the afternoon, but you’ll have a little more luck seeing some rain the farther south/west you are.
Once we get to Sunday morning, it’ll be low rain chances for our Red River counties in the morning followed by afternoon sunshine, heat and humidity.
The brief reprieve from the triple digits is short-lived. Feels-like temps will likely be in the heat advisory range by Sunday, and we’ll definitely be dealing with some advisories next week as high pressure builds back in.
Patience is a virtue; a phrase that has defined the Texas Longhorns running back room over the last four years in Austin.
Newly elevated starting running back Jaydon Blue preached patience in one of his first media availabilities since the upsetting news of projected starter CJ Baxter’s torn LCL, leaving him on the sideline for the entire 2024 season. Baxter, who now must wait another 13 months before he can take a college football snap, will have to practice what Blue talked about on Tuesday.
“Two years ago I was behind two guys who are in the NFL now. Even last year I was behind two guys that led that room and taught me the way it goes,” Blue said. “Me taking on that role, it brings in a lot of confidence for the young guys in the room.”
Texas running backs have been both cursed and blessed with the need to be patient before becoming a star in burnt orange. Even Bijan Robinson, who later turned into a top 10 NFL draft pick, had to wait for over half the season to become a starter despite being the best running back recruit in the nation.
Quickly, though, Robinson made others wait their turn. While he turned into one of the best running backs in the nation, and in Texas history, a few key guys played a role that brought the team success, even if it was out of the spotlight.
Roschon Johnson never became a starter with the Longhorns, but the former quarterback played well enough to get drafted in the fourth round of the 2023 NFL Draft, securing a comfortable life and a chance to win at the next level. Similarly, utility back Kielan Robinson never started after transferring from Alabama but played such a key role in wins against both Oklahoma schools that the Jaguars took a chance on him in the fifth round of this year.
But no player lives the phrase ‘patience is a virtue’ quite as well as Jonathon Brooks. Brooks was the lowest-rated primary running back recruit of Sarkisian’s between the 2020 and 2024 classes, but that didn’t waiver his confidence. Brooks took the time to wait, learning behind Robinson and Johnson, and got a chance to become a full-blown starter early last year.
Brooks took with it and ran, literally, all the way to becoming a top-three running back of the year before a torn ACL. Brooks will have to remain patient again before he can play meaningful snaps as a Carolina Panther, but the ability he showed gave them the confidence to make him the first running back drafted in the 2024 NFL Draft.
So here sits Jaydon Blue, thrust into what would be an uncomfortable position by many. Everyone in Texas has some sort of take about you, the running back room, and what your ceiling is. Some are crowning you a Doak Walker winner before you’ve even taken a starting snap, while others want to drag the team’s expectations down because the man ahead of him is now gone.
But Blue emphasized something he learned from Bijan, something many Texas fans should listen to before making snap judgments about a player, or the room before the season gets too far.
“The thing he told me was to always stay patient, let the game come to me,” Blue said. “That was big for me, I was highly ranked coming out of high school and him telling me that taught me how to stay patient and just work and wait on my turn.”
Some might forget just how sought-after Blue was in the 2022 cycle. The Houston native was 247Sports sixth-ranked running back, winning the Texas 6A Offensive MVP as a junior because of his insane outbursts on the ground, with over half of his games resulting in 200 or more yards. A player with that resume could easily get in his own head or want to leave when starting roles were not assured in his first three years, but that was not the culture instilled by Texas running back coach Tashard Choice.
“I always use (Brooks) as an example. He didn’t play much in his first two years, played a lot last year, and he went to the league after one year,” Blue said. “I always look back at that and it puts a lot of belief in me that if I stay patient and work, (I’ll get) everything I want.”
Blue’s patience has likely paid off. Even though no one on that team wanted Baxter to go down, no player benefits as much as Jaydon Blue. In Sarkisian’s first three seasons as a head coach, the starting running back saw a minimum of 180 carries and 1,100 yards, a mark that would’ve been hard to expect the junior to hit in tandem with Baxter.
Now, Blue is expected to carry a workload that he hasn’t had since 2020 as a junior in high school. If the running back is as patient on the field as he is off, the Longhorns will be looking at its seventh player to rush for over 1,000 yards since 2000, continuing the legacy of a program making a case for RBU of the 2020s.
The Texas Rangers start a six-game road trip on Friday when they head to the Bronx to face the New York Yankees.
After that, the Rangers will head to Boston for three games against the Red Sox at Fenway Park. When the trip is done, Texas (54-61) hopes it is a little bit closer to the top of the American League West.
The Rangers are 5.5 games back of the Seattle Mariners in the division. The Houston Astros — who took two out of three from the Rangers earlier this week — are just a half-game back. Right now, winning the division is essential for all three teams. Seattle is 4.5 games behind the final AL Wild Card spot.
Whoever wins the division goes to the postseason. The rest, most likely, stay home.
The few strings the Rangers pulled at the trade deadline have had little impact so far. Texas did get starting pitcher Tyler Mahle back this week and Jacob deGrom is getting closer to a rehab assignment. As for the offense, well it remains hit-and-miss, as it has since May.
But, on Thursday, the Rangers made the traditional visit to the White House to visit the president and celebrate their World Series title from a season ago.
At this rate, the Rangers will have to do something epic to position themselves for a repeat.
Here is the preview for the game, with probable pitchers, how to watch, listen and more.
Where: Yankee Stadium, The Bronx, New York
Friday’s Game
Time: 6:05 p.m. CT
Television: Bally Sports Southwest, MLB Network (out-of-market only). Radio: 105.3 The Fan, KFLC 1270. Watch on fubo.tv.
Probable pitchers
Texas Rangers: LHP Cody Bradford (3-0, 3.96)
New York Yankees: LHP Carlos Rodón (12-7, 4.37)
Saturday’s Game
Time: 12:05 p.m. CT
Television: Bally Sports Southwest, MLB Network (out-of-market only). Radio: 105.3 The Fan, KFLC 1270.
Probable pitchers
Texas Rangers: RHP Nathan Eovaldi (8-5, 3.62)
New York Yankees: RHP Gerrit Cole (3-2, 5.09)
Sunday’s Game
Time: 12:05 p.m. CT
Television: Bally Sports Southwest, MLB Network (out-of-market only). Radio: 105.3 The Fan, KFLC 1270.
Probable pitchers
Texas Rangers: LHP Andrew Heaney (4-11, 3.98)
St. Louis Cardinals: RHP Marcus Stroman (7-6, 4.10)
Remaining Series in August
Aug. 12-14: at Boston
Aug. 15-18: vs. Minnesota
Aug. 19-21: vs. Pittsburgh
Aug. 23-25: at Cleveland
Aug. 27-29: at Chicago White Sox
Aug. 30-Sept. 1: vs. Oakland
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