Women's basketball Bracket Watch: What seed does Tennessee deserve?

(Editor’s note: This is part of the Bracket Central Series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s and women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.)

After a whirlwind week across conference postseason play, we’re on the eve of the official Selection Sunday bracket reveal. If that doesn’t have you ready to run through a wall, man, I have no idea what will.

Ivy Madness has lived up to the hype, Penn and Harvard giving Princeton and Columbia a run for their money. Louisiana Tech had Middle Tennessee on the back foot much of the game until the Raiders pulled away late. Maine, one of my favorite mid-majors, waltzed into its first tournament appearance since 2019 and third under coach Amy Vachon. Top-seeded Hawaii fell to UC Davis in the Big West tournament, advancing the Aggies to a championship meeting against UC Irvine. A win for the Anteaters would push them to their first NCAA Tournament since 1995.

Across every corner and region of basketball, history is being made and excitement is rising. March is in full swing.

Multi-bid conferences

Impaction of MACtion?

Ball State and Toledo combined for a 33-3 record in the MAC, and they split the season series. The Cardinals’ only loss outside of Toledo in the MAC came on the road in overtime to Northern Illinois.

Then March happened. Instead of the expected showdown in the MAC tournament finals between the Cardinals and Rockets, upsets set a new stage. In Friday’s MAC tournament semifinals, Buffalo took down Toledo and Kent State shocked Ball State.

Buffalo and Kent State will tip off at 11 a.m. (ET) Saturday for the MAC tournament title in Cleveland (home of this season’s Final Four). As has been said many times, many ways, this is March!

The Golden Flashes have been successful under coach Todd Starkey, finishing with a winning record in seven of his eight seasons, including two regular-season MAC championships. They’re one game away from making the Big Dance for the first time since 2002. Buffalo, on the other hand, has made the NCAA Tournament four times in the last decade, enjoying the school’s best run with Felisha Legette-Jack (now Syracuse’s head coach). Becky Burke is in her second year leading the Bulls and is on the brink of her first tournament appearance.

How does the unexpected impact the bracket?

Unfortunately for Ball State and Toledo, they’re both a decent ways down the pecking order from an at-large bid. Regardless of what happens the rest of the way in conference tournament play, I’d safely say that both are likely WNIT bound. Similarly to how I explained Lamar’s case, it shouldn’t be forgotten that Ball State and Toledo put together tremendous seasons in the history of each school. But this is just part of the brutality of March.

Though I don’t expect the MAC to become a two-bid league, it does have a sizable impact in pushing some teams up a seed line. Neither Kent State nor Buffalo has the same level of resume as Ball State or Toledo. Rather than the No. 12 seed that’s been projected from the MAC, I would envision either team on the No. 14 seed line, and Fairfield moving to the last No. 12 seed.

What’s Tennessee’s ceiling?

Tennessee is one of the harder teams to project in this year’s field. Injuries significantly impacted the Lady Vols early: Transfer point guard Destinee Wells suffered a season-ending knee injury 10 games into the season, and star forward Rickea Jackson missed eight games with a lower leg injury.

How will the selection committee factor injuries into Tennessee’s slower start? The Lady Vols endured a 4-4 stretch with Jackson out of the lineup, including losses to Indiana, Ohio State, Notre Dame and Middle Tennessee.

It’s worth noting that was one of the toughest nonconference stretches anyone played in the country: Tennessee finished 11th in the country in nonconference strength of schedule and first in overall strength of schedule.

Tennessee played the best team in the country, South Carolina, tighter than just about anyone this season. The Lady Vols finished within 11 points twice in the regular season and were a 10-second stretch away from winning in the SEC tournament semifinals. Their win against Oklahoma early in the season stands out as a signature win from an overarching perspective, and blowing out Alabama in the SEC tournament to avenge one of their earlier losses goes a long way.

The Lady Vols don’t necessarily have the same level of quality wins as higher-seeded teams, but how much stock gets put into their play as they closed the year and found a groove? Given that teams in a similar range all have marquee wins against top-flight opponents, it feels difficult to move Tennessee ahead. Watching that game against South Carolina, Tennessee looked like a team capable of hosting in the tournament. That SEC tournament run seemed much stronger to me than a No. 8 seed, but Tennessee’s resume still is what it is, and it feels like a bit of a gray area to start projecting with the eye test.

I’m curious how the selection committee handles Tennessee as a case study because with respect to balancing the bracket, finding the right place to put the Lady Vols is challenging.

Seed list

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(Photo of Kellie Harper and Tennessee: Jacob Kupferman / Getty Images)