What to expect in Tennessee’s primary election on Thursday

As Tennessee prepares for today’s primary elections, all eyes are on Democratic State Rep. Gloria Johnson’s bid for the U.S. Senate and MAGA darling Andy Ogles’ fight to retain his U.S. House seat.

Gloria Johnson vs. Marsha Blackburn

Gloria Johnson, who is ahead in fundraising and has led in some polls, is already targeting incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn.

Her campaign has been fueled by the momentum she gained after narrowly surviving an expulsion effort by Tennessee’s Republican House supermajority in 2023. The expulsion attempt came after she joined two Democratic colleagues in a gun control protest following the tragic Covenant School shooting.

More: Johnson, Bradshaw vie for Democratic US Senate nomination, seek to push party ahead

Johnson’s defiance resonated nationally, drawing support from high-profile figures like Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden. Now, Johnson aims to convert this support into voter turnout and challenge the GOP’s longstanding dominance within the state.

“This is doable, folks,” Johnson said. “In 2018, Marsha Blackburn won by 200,000 votes. We know there are 300,000 Democratic voters who haven’t voted in the last few cycles. We get those folks to the polls, we win this race.”

Johnson’s campaign has raised over $5 million thus far, with over $2 million on hand. She believes that with sufficient funding, Tennessee’s relatively inexpensive media markets could help flip the Senate seat.

Despite the enthusiasm, the challenge remains steep. No Democrat has won a statewide race in Tennessee since 2006. Johnson is counting on the political energy from the “Tennessee Three” incident to drive an unprecedented Democratic turnout.

More Democratic hopefuls emerge

Marquita Bradshaw and Civil Miller-Watkins are also contenders in the Democratic primary.

Bradshaw is drawing on her experience from her 2020 Senate campaign. In 2020, Bradshaw made history as the first African American woman to win a major political party nomination in Tennessee’s statewide races and currently serves as the executive director of Sowing Justice, an environmental and political organization.

Meanwhile, Civil Miller-Watkins is a middle-school teacher who currently serves as secretary of the TN Democratic County Chairs Association. She has strong ties with the NAACP and previously served as chair of the Fayette County Democratic Party.

MAGA darling Andy Ogles looks to retain U.S. House seat

In Tennessee’s 5th Congressional District, Trump-endorsed Andy Ogles faces a primary challenge from Nashville Metro Council member Courtney Johnston, who is viewed as more moderate.

With $500,000 in cash on hand, Johnston has outpaced Ogles, who reported only $95,000 earlier this month. “We’re taking nothing for granted,” Ogles told Punchbowl News. “We’re being outspent, but we’re working harder. We’ve got the grassroots and our polling looks good. You never take your foot off the gas.”

Despite Ogles’ optimism, concerns among his allies are growing. The far-right Freedom Caucus is reeling from Chair Rep. Bob Good’s exceedingly slender loss in the June primary – less than 400 votes. Virginia’s 5th Congressional District is still amid a recount, but if Good falls short, he would become the first House Freedom Caucus chairman to lose reelection.

Ogles, who aims to chair the caucus, has faced scrutiny over his campaign finances and alleged resume embellishments. Reports indicate Ogles had to correct his FEC filings to reflect a $20,000 loan to his campaign, not the previously reported $320,000. Additionally, local news has raised questions about discrepancies in his educational and business credentials.

Johnston has capitalized on these controversies, portraying herself as a champion of good governance and contrasting her candidacy with Ogles’ purported headline-chasing. 

Ogles has introduced numerous bills throughout his congressional tenure, though none have passed the committee. More recently, he introduced a measure to impeach Vice President Kamala Harris. 

Jeremy Yurow is a politics reporting fellow based in Hawaii for the USA TODAY Network. You can reach him at JYurow@gannett.com or on X, formerly Twitter @JeremyYurow