Upset chances for Georgia opponents, Tennessee tops remaining schedule

ATHENS — Kirby Smart and his staff have two more weeks to sharpen this Georgia football team before the most difficult part of the schedule arrives.

A UGA schedule that was criticized in the offseason after a Week 2 trip to Oklahoma was ultimately canceled by the SEC is about to heat up, to the extent it’s worth ranking the teams in terms of difficulty.

The No. 1-ranked Bulldogs are riding their season high at the moment, having asserted their dominance against a No. 24-ranked Kentucky team with a 51-13 victory.

Georgia coach Kirby Smart noted “it wasn’t a complete performance defense” — Wildcats quarterback Devin Leary missed open receivers — but he liked the physicality and improved run defense.

The Bulldogs look to carry that over into a noon game on Saturday at Vanderbilt, a game oddsmakers have projected will feature some level of drop-off for Georgia, which is only a 29-point favorite.

Fact is, on paper the Commodores represent the easiest remaining game on the Bulldogs’ schedule.

Here’s how the remaining games on the schedule rate in terms of difficulty:

1. No. 19-ranked Tennessee (4-1), Nov. 18, Knoxville

Chance for an upset: 15 percent

What it would take: Joe Milton 400 yards total offense

SEC road games are tough, and Neyland Stadium has the capacity to rate as the loudest Georgia encounters this season, based on past and current player testimony. UGA managed the crowd at Auburn amazingly well with no false starts, but Tennessee offensive tempo and aggressive defensive game planning bring a different challenge.

2. No. 13-ranked Ole Miss (5-1), Nov. 11, Athens

Chance for an upset: 12 percent

What it would take: Quinshon Judkins 125 yards rushing

This looks like Lane Kiffin’s best team, and UGA should feel fortunate the game is in Athens and not Oxford, or the difficulty rating would easily make it the toughest left on the Bulldogs’ schedule. It takes elite QB play to beat a Kirby Smart defense, and the Rebs have the potential for that in Jaxson Dart set up by a good run game.

3. No. 26 in votes, Missouri (5-1), Nov. 4, Athens

Chance for an upset: 10 percent

What it would take: Georgia -3 in turnover differential

Remember these guys, the ones that had Georgia down 10 in the fourth quarter before Kenny McIntosh saved the day? Mizzou opened the season second in the nation in returning production (82 percent) with 11 full- or part-time starters back on offense and 8 starters back on defense.

4. Georgia Tech (3-3), Nov. 25, Atlanta

Chance for an upset: 5 percent

What it would take: Tech 17-point-plus halftime lead

The fact this game is on the road and is a trap game of sorts between what figures to be an emotional road trip to Tennessee and a challenging SEC title matchup elevates the difficulty rating for the Yellow Jackets. Georgia Tech coach Brent Key saw his team outplay UGA in Athens through the first half last year and is coming off a road win at previously unbeaten Miami.

5. Florida (4-2), Oct. 28, Jacksonville

Chance for an upset: 4 percent

What it would take: Gators’ special teams TD, 2+ missed UGA FGs

This rivalry game just isn’t what it used to be with the Gators’ swoon under second-year coach Billy Napier. Florida got drummed by Kentucky and has a challenging road game at South Carolina on Saturday night leading into its bye week.

6. Vanderbilt (2-5), Friday, Nashville

Chance for an upset: 1 percent

What it would take: UGA team-wide availability issue

Georgia’s biggest challenge will be the combination of a noon kickoff and a stadium torn up to the point of only holding 28,500, some 11,000 under its normal modest capacity. The Commodores have good perimeter speed and a decent quarterback but not much else.