The Alabama-Tennessee factors that’ll decide rivalry game

As far as Alabama-Tennessee games go, this one’s a real brain teaser.

Two weeks ago, these two entered games as top-5 teams and multi-touchdown favorites only to lose. Neither looked particularly good a week later when they nearly blew home games as double-digit favorites.

So somebody’s going to break the cycle … and their rivals’ playoff path as they resume this old-school rivalry with huge modern-day implications.

Alabama (5-1, 2-1 SEC) opened as a 2-point favorite in point spread that’s grown to three as the week progressed. That’s notable since Tennessee is the home team that took down the Crimson Tide the last time they met in Neyland Stadium.

It’s a meeting of a struggling Vol offense and a stumbling Tide defense.

And a solid Tide offense and a strong Vol defense.

So who blinks?

Best case scenario for Alabama: Strike fast, slow down

The evolution of college football is occurring right before our eyes. The days of 16-18 possession games are gone. Alabama had the ball 10 times in each of its last two games. Vanderbilt beat Alabama two weeks ago with just nine possessions.

That means every touch is critical. Alabama gave away two possessions in Nashville and lost by five. Last week, it took four from South Carolina and won by two after beating Georgia by seven after grabbing four takeaways.

We say all that to say this: A few plays here and there could make the difference in a game like this. Alabama was gashed by the big play in Neyland Stadium two years ago but returned the favor last October in Tuscaloosa.

The Tide is fifth nationally with seven plays of 50-plus yards. Tennessee’s defense hasn’t allowed a single one in six games this season, so something has to give. South Carolina brought a smart plan to limit Ryan Williams to his lowest output of the season (four catches, 32 yards and his first touchdown-free game of the season).

With the Vol offense struggling, popping a few big plays over the top will pressure the home team.

Speaking of that Tennessee offense, it’s not like that group isn’t capable. They’ve shown they have the capability for fireworks and Alabama’s been susceptible to breakdowns the last few weeks.

The key here is to slow momentum before it builds. This is a Tennessee offense that likes to ramp up the speed after a successful first-down play, rolling the snowball downhill fast. Florida, however, impacted that pace a week ago in a game Tennessee won in overtime but started painfully slow. The Vols averaged just 2.7 yards on 13 first-down running plays and just 6.3 yards a passing attempt.

That helped keep Tennessee from scoring until late in the third quarter of a game that ended 23-17 in overtime. The Vols had the ball 13 times in regulation, scoring just three of those possessions while going 3-and-out five times.

Worse case for Alabama: A dirty white uniform

Alabama had a world of trouble slowing South Carolina’s star pass rusher Kyle Kennard last week. He finished with two sacks plus the pressure that forced Jalen Milroe into an intentional grounding for a safety. He was a problem.

James Pearce Jr. could be even more of one. The star Vol defensive lineman recorded a sack/fumble last year against Milroe deep in Alabama territory. After Tennessee scooped the fumble, the guests kicked a field goal to take a 13-0 lead. Those are the nightmare scenarios that got Alabama at Vanderbilt and nearly did the same last week against South Carolina.

If Milroe leaves Neyland Stadium with that white road uniform all stained up, Alabama’s in trouble. The Vols will be without linebacker Keenan Pili, the play caller of the defense who is out for the season after an injury last week. That’s a huge loss for Tennessee but there’s plenty of firepower remaining on a defense that ranks fourth nationally in points allowed (10.7) and second in yards allowed (249.8).

The Vols also haven’t faced an offense with as much big-play potential as Alabama. The Tide also haven’t seen a defense as solid top-to-bottom coming off one of its most inconsistent performances of the season against the Gamecocks.

Prediction: Tennessee 21, Alabama 20

This one is as much of a coin toss as it comes but Tennessee’s at home, so the Vols get the edge in a rock fight.

Michael Casagrande is a reporter for the Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @ByCasagrande or on Facebook.