Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt odds: Win probability, final score prediction for Volunteers, Commodores

Tennessee and Vanderbilt are set to meet on Saturday night in a key conference showdown, one that the Volunteers will need to win to protect their NCAA Tournament resume.

The Commodores haven’t been very good this year, sitting at just 5-13 overall and 0-5 in SEC play. Vanderbilt has lost five straight games, going back to the start of conference play.

Tennessee, meanwhile, has been quite good. The Volunteers have won 10 of their last 11 games, with the only loss coming on the road by two possessions. So they’ll be a heavy favorite today.

Odds for Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt

Coming into the game, Tennessee is a 14.5-point favorite over Vanderbilt, per FanDuel Sportsbook. The Volunteers are currently listed at -1400 for the moneyline as of Saturday morning, while the Commodores are sitting at +800.

The point total for the game is set at 141.5 points. Tennessee ranks No. 58 nationally in scoring at 79.7 points per game, while Vanderbilt ranks No. 316 nationally at 67.2 points per game. That combined total sits at 146.9 points, an interesting divergence from the over/under total. And despite Vanderbilt’s recent struggles, the Commodores have played some close games, staying within a possession of a ranked Memphis team and of Alabama. So Saturday’s contest offers at least some intrigue.

Final score predictions for Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt

BPI predicted winner: Tennessee
BPI predicted point differential: 18.7
CPI win probability (for Tennessee): 94.6%
BPI matchup quality: 64.6

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. It agrees with Vegas about what to expect from this game. Heading into the game, BPI is projecting a point differential of 18.7 points in Tennessee’s favor. It also gives the Volunteers a 94.6% chance to win the game over the Commodores on the road.

BPI also gives this game a matchup quality score of 64.6, which ranks well outside the top 25 in quality scores predicted for the day.

KenPom predicted final score: Tennessee 79, Vanderbilt 62
KenPom win probability (for Tennessee): 94%

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account.

For Saturday’s game between Tennessee and Vanderbilt, KenPom agrees with BPI and Vegas’ consensus, projecting the Commodores to lose by seventeen points.

How to watch Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt

Time: 6 p.m. ET
Channel: SEC Network, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Memorial Gymnasium – Nashville, Tenn.

The opening tip between the Volunteers and Commodores is scheduled for 6 p.m. ET and will air live on the SEC Network. It’s also going to be available to fans on streaming through FuboTV, which has an option for a free trial.

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While it doesn’t promise to be the most intriguing game of the day, anything can happen when the two in-state rivals meet. And Memorial Gymnasium has a way of leveling the playing field, so we’ll see how things unfold.