Tennessee
Tennessee vs. Arkansas prediction: Who wins, and why?
SEC football is back this weekend as No. 4 Tennessee hits the road a second-straight week in a matchup against Arkansas in college football’s Week 6 action on Saturday night. Let’s check in with our latest prediction for the game.
Arkansas is 12 combined points away from being undefeated, holding leads against Oklahoma State and Texas A&M, but ultimately losing those games as a result of ill-timed ball security issues and some offensive mistakes, resulting in a 3-2 mark.
Tennessee is angling for an SEC title and more, sitting at 4-0 behind the nation’s No. 1 ranked total defense, 1 of 2 teams to allow under 200 yards per game and under 800 yards total this season.
What can we make of the matchup?
Here’s what you should watch out for as Arkansas hosts Tennessee in this Week 6 college football game with our updated prediction.
1. Hogs on the ground. Utah transfer back Ja’Quinden Jackson has been key to the Razorbacks’ offense, running for more than 100 yards in his first 3 games, and he leads the SEC with 509 rushing yards and is second with 9 touchdowns.
Tennessee is 2nd in FBS against the run, allowing just under 51 yards per game on the ground. And while Jackson is 1 of 3 SEC backs to average more than 100 yards per game, his output against conference teams is limited, averaging 56 yards despite playing against 2 of the league’s worst run defense teams.
2. Turnovers. Arkansas has suffered some very badly-timed turnovers this season, as quarterback Taylen Green threw a pick-six that allowed Oklahoma State to mount a comeback, and he threw another pick and then fumbled late in regulation last week.
The Hogs are 89th in turnover margin and are second-worst in the SEC with 9 giveaways. The Vols have recovered 5 fumbles this season, and have forced 3 takeaways in their last three 3 games away from Rocky Top.
3. At the line. Stopping the run is Arkansas’ strength on defense thus far behind a decent front seven rotation, ranking 21st in FBS by allowing just 93 yards per game rushing.
Tennessee is 4th nationally with 290 rushing yards per game and lead back Dylan Sampson is averaging more than 112 yards himself and is 1 of 2 backs in the country with 10 rushing touchdowns.
Most analytical models favor the Volunteers against the Razorbacks in this matchup.
That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.
Tennessee is projected to win the game in the majority 82.1 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.
That leaves Arkansas as the expected winner in the remaining 17.9 percent of sims.
Tennessee is projected to be 14 points better than Arkansas on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.
More … Tennessee vs. Arkansas prediction: What the analytics say
Tennessee is a 13.5 point favorite against Arkansas, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.
FanDuel set the total at 56.5 points for the game.
And it listed the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -525 and for Arkansas at +400 to win outright.
A decent majority of bets are projecting the Vols will get the better of the Hogs.
About 58 percent of bettors are expecting that Tennessee will win the game and cover the spread.
The remaining 42 percent of wagers suggest that Arkansas will either win in an upset, or, more likely, will keep the game under two touchdowns.
There isn’t a phase in this game where Tennessee’s defense should be at any major disadvantage, especially when generating pressure from the nucleus of this unit, its elite front seven rotation.
And while Arkansas has struggled in pass protection during stretches this season, it is a relative strength when blocking for the run, resulting in the team’s strong rushing numbers to date.
The presence of mobile quarterback Taylen Green is a plus, as he can spice up the offense with a battery of scripted and unscripted runs to throw tacklers out of place, even if there are times when he forces a play that results in a turnover.
His scrambles and Jackson’s physical rushing style will find the Vols’ tacklers on the back foot often enough to keep it close, but the Razorbacks do have one marked weakness for UT to exploit.
Arkansas is third-worst in the SEC in pass defense, allowing just under 227 passing yards per game, and that’s despite playing against some substandard passing offenses so far.
Nico Iamaleava and Tennessee’s superb skill threats are another animal, and this feels like the game where Josh Heupel opens up the playbook a little more.
College Football HQ picks …
More … Tennessee vs. Arkansas score prediction by expert football model
When: Sat., Oct. 5
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | 6:30 p.m. CT
TV: ABC network
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Published on Mar. 3, 2026
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According to ESPN’s latest NFL mock draft, three former Tennessee Volunteers players are projected to be selected in the top 60 picks of the upcoming 2026 NFL Draft. Cornerbacks Jermod McCoy and Colton Hood are both projected to be first-round picks, while wide receiver Chris Brazzell II is projected to be a second-round selection.
Why it matters
The strong NFL Draft projections for Tennessee players highlight the continued talent development and success of the Volunteers football program under head coach Josh Heupel. If these projections hold true, it would mark the first time Tennessee has had two first-round picks and three players selected in the top 60 overall during Heupel’s tenure.
The details
Cornerback Jermod McCoy is projected to be selected 29th overall by the Los Angeles Rams, despite not participating in on-field workouts at the NFL Combine due to a previous ACL injury. Teammate Colton Hood is projected to be the final pick of the first round, going 32nd overall to the Seattle Seahawks. Wide receiver Chris Brazzell II impressed at the Combine with a 4.37 40-yard dash and is projected to be a second-round pick, going 60th overall to the Buffalo Bills.
- The NFL Combine was held in late February 2026.
- Tennessee’s Pro Day workouts are scheduled for the end of March 2026.
- The 2026 NFL Draft will take place in April-May 2026.
The players
Jermod McCoy
A cornerback for the Tennessee Volunteers who is projected to be a first-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, despite missing the 2025 season due to an ACL injury.
Colton Hood
A cornerback for the Tennessee Volunteers who is projected to be a first-round pick, going 32nd overall to the Seattle Seahawks in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Chris Brazzell II
A wide receiver for the Tennessee Volunteers who impressed at the NFL Combine with a 4.37 40-yard dash and is projected to be a second-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
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What they’re saying
“If we’re going strictly by talent, McCoy is a top-10 prospect in this class. But he hasn’t played a game since 2024, missing all of last season after suffering an ACL tear in January 2025. We’re still not sure where he’s at in his recovery, as he did not participate in testing or drills at the combine. This gives the Rams — who haven’t drafted a corner in the first round since 2006 or before Day 3 since 2019 — the potential to get a steal here. McCoy is an easy mover who has squeaky-clean technique.”
— Jordan Reid, ESPN Analyst (ESPN)
“The reigning champions have a clear need at corner, as Josh Jobe and Riq Woolen are both scheduled to be free agents. Hood is a scheme-versatile player who can thrive in press man while also having the fluidity to excel in zone. A former all-state center fielder in high school, Hood’s ball skills frequently show up on tape (10 pass breakups and an interception last season). With his poised technique and wrap-up-and-finish tackling, he would fit well on the outside of Mike Macdonald’s secondary.”
— Jordan Reid, ESPN Analyst (ESPN)
“The Bills need someone who can separate on the outside, and Brazzell is an ‘X’ receiver who can be a deep vertical threat. He can also sink his weight and run a true route tree, making him a good fit with quarterback Josh Allen.”
— Jordan Reid, ESPN Analyst (ESPN)
What’s next
Tennessee’s Pro Day workouts are scheduled for the end of March 2026, where McCoy plans to participate in on-field drills to further showcase his recovery from the ACL injury. Strong performances at the Pro Day could potentially push McCoy back up draft boards into the top half of the first round.
The takeaway
The strong NFL Draft projections for Tennessee players demonstrate the continued talent development and success of the Volunteers football program under head coach Josh Heupel. If these projections hold true, it would mark a significant milestone for the program, with Tennessee potentially having two first-round picks and three players selected in the top 60 overall for the first time during Heupel’s tenure.
KNOXVILLE, Tenn. (WCYB) — Tennessee Athletics’ “Big Orange Caravan” presented by Pilot will roll into the Tri-Cities on April 30, bringing some of the university’s most recognizable faces to Kingsport.
The statewide tour, a collaboration between Tennessee Athletics and the UT Knoxville Office of Alumni Affairs, features Vice Chancellor/Director of Athletics Danny White, men’s basketball coach Rick Barnes, women’s basketball coach Kim Caldwell, head football coach Josh Heupel and “Voice of the Vols” Mike Keith.
The Tri-Cities stop is scheduled for Thursday, April 30, at Meadowview Convention Center, 1901 Meadowview Parkway, Kingsport, Tennessee. Doors open at 5 p.m., followed by a meet-and-greet session with the headliners from 5:30-6:15 p.m. The program begins at 6:15 p.m.
Hosted by Keith, the evening will include stories, program insight and a question-and-answer session with Tennessee’s athletics leaders and coaches. The UT Spirit Squads also will be in attendance.
Tickets are $30, plus taxes and fees, and include light food options. A cash bar, along with additional light food and appetizers, will be available.
Of each ticket sold, $5 will benefit the local UT Alumni chapter’s scholarship endowment and $10 will go toward the My All Campaign.
The Tri-Cities event is the final stop of the three-city spring tour. The caravan opens in Chattanooga on April 28 before heading to Nashville on April 29. As announced last spring, Chattanooga and Memphis will alternate as tour stops each year.
The Big Orange Caravan is designed to connect Tennessee coaches and administrators with fans across the state, offering behind-the-scenes insight and celebrating the support of the Volunteer community.
Tickets for the Tri-Cities stop can be purchased at https://www.gofevo.com/event/BOCTriCities26
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Tennessee star Nate Ament will miss a game against South Carolina on Tuesday, the program announced on Monday night. Ament was injured during a weekend contest against Alabama.
Ament was injured when he was rolled up on while going for a loose ball. His leg twisted awkwardly underneath him, and Ament immediately went to the locker room.
He would return briefly in the second half. Nate Ament even made a basket, but then he appeared to tweak his injury shortly after and returned to the bench. He did not re-enter the contest.
Tennessee issued a short statement on his availability against South Carolina. The program released the statement on Twitter.
“Nate Ament will not play tomorrow night at South Carolina,” Tennessee wrote. “Ament is out due to a right leg injury sustained Saturday against Alabama. The timetable for his return is to be determined and he will continue to be evaluated.”
A 6-foot-10, 207-pound freshman, Ament has been one of Tennessee’s best players all season. He is the team’s second-leading scorer, averaging 17.4 points per game. He’s also the team’s leading rebounder, securing 6.4 rebounds per game.
Nate Ament signs NIL deal with Reebok
On3’s Nick Schultz recently published a list of some of the top brands to sign college basketball freshmen to NIL deals. Ament was one of the top signees.
In addition to Arkansas star Darius Acuff, Ament signed with Reebok this year. Ament was the crown jewel of Tennessee’s recruiting class. He signed with the brand in October 2024 while he was the No. 4 overall player from the 2025 cycle, according to the Rivals Industry Ranking.
Nate Ament sits second on the Tennessee roster with 17.4 points per game, and his 6.4 rebounds on average leads the Vols. Additionally, his $1.3 million On3 NIL Valuation ranks No. 14 in college basketball and No. 56 in the On3 NIL 100.
On3’s Nick Schultz also contributed to this report.
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