Louisville basketball vs Tennessee preview, recruiting news, more in our latest mailbag

This week’s Louisville basketball mailbag needs very little introduction.

On Saturday, the Cardinals (1-0) host No. 12 Tennessee (1-0) — a prime opportunity to deliver first-year head coach Pat Kelsey a signature win during Week 1 of the 2024-25 season, against a team coming off a trip to the Elite Eight this past spring.

“It’s going to be a great test for us,” Kelsey said Wednesday, during his radio show on WLCL 93.9-FM. “We’re really excited about the opportunity.”

Kelsey is 1-13 against ranked opponents across his 12-year career; the lone victory occurred Nov. 11, 2019, with Winthrop against No. 18 Saint Mary’s on the road. If he can orchestrate an upset in front of what’s sure to be a boisterous crowd at the KFC Yum! Center, U of L would make a strong case for cracking the AP Top 25 for the first time since Jan. 25, 2021.

Oh, and the early signing period is right around the corner. A busy time, indeed.

Now, let’s get to your questions:

Not so fast, my friend. A few things to consider:

Tennessee barely outscored Gardner-Webb in the paint, 38-34, during its 80-64 win Monday night. The Runnin’ Bulldogs outrebounded the Volunteers, 32-29, and, with a 10-8 advantage on the offensive glass, had a slim lead in second-chance points, 12-7.

After the game, coach Rick Barnes said starting forward Felix Okpara, a 6-foot-11, 235-pound junior who transferred in from Ohio State, is playing through a “pretty serious” hip pointer injury. Okpara tallied two points at the free-throw line, grabbed nine rebounds, picked up four fouls, turned the ball over three times and blocked one shot in 25 minutes of run against Gardner-Webb.

“He absolutely refuses to come out of practice and play,” Barnes said. “He’s going to play.

“I thought he was slow getting off the ball,” the coach continued. “He’s not normally slow at doing that. I’m really proud of the fact that (he’s playing through it) — if you’ve ever dealt with a hip pointer, you know what it’s like. I can show you film at practice where he’s almost trying to protect it with his hands. From a production standpoint, since I’ve known him, this might be the worst day he’s had; but he’ll work at it and he’ll get better.”

Barnes also said that Okpara’s backup, 6-11 sophomore J.P. Estrella, was not at 100% due to an ankle injury. He finished with four points, two rebounds, a block and a foul in 11 minutes.

The two other forwards on UT’s roster, 6-10 senior Igor Miličić Jr. and 6-9 sophomore Cade Phillips, combined for 15 points, eight rebounds, three assists and two fouls in 37 minutes.

Through two preseason exhibitions and its Game 1 win over Morehead State, Louisville has allowed its opponents to score 66 of their combined 158 points (41.8%) in the paint. But it might be catching the Vols at the right time.

To Jeff’s point, between Louisville’s two exhibitions and the Morehead State game, it has surrendered 46 points at the free-throw line. If its three opponents had shot 100% from the charity stripe, that number jumps to 72.

The Cards must limit those mistakes against Tennessee, which boasts the dangerous backcourt duo of North Florida transfer Chaz Lanier and reigning SEC Defensive Player of the Year Zakai Zeigler. The latter scored seven of his 13 points against Gardner-Webb at the line. The Vols made 16 of their 21 freebies.

Kelsey mentioned after Monday’s win how fouling too much can disrupt his team’s desired pace of play, which could loom large against the Vols. All of his teams dating back to 2015-16 have ranked among the top 100 in tempo on KenPom.com; while Barnes has had only two squads do so during that span.

But he also said he doesn’t want to limit his most instinctive defenders, citing Kasean Pryor and Chucky Hepburn by name.

“Sometimes, those guys kind of go out of the system a little bit, but you’ve got to let them be who they are,” Kelsey said. “You don’t want to put those guys in a box and take away some of their true gifts. Sometimes, they’ll get a little crazy and gamble a little bit, and it costs us on the backside; but again: I’d rather try to reel them back in a little bit.”

He might have to do some reeling Saturday if the fouls start piling up.

I’m fairly confident Kelsey won’t secure a top-50 recruit during the early signing period, which runs Nov. 13-20.

But there’s still a chance Louisville gets one before the 2025 cycle ends.

Mikel Brown Jr., a 6-3 point guard out of DME Academy in Florida, is the prospect to watch now. As of Thursday, he was the top-ranked floor general and the No. 10 overall talent in his class on the 247Sports Composite. And, for what it’s worth, he has an endorsement deal with Adidas.

Brown stopped by U of L on an unofficial visit in September, a couple of days before his official visit with archrival Kentucky. The former went so well that, a month later, On3’s Joe Tipton reported the Cards were one of two schools “carrying momentum” in his recruitment — the other being Alabama — and that Brown is tentatively planning to return for an official visit Dec. 8; when Kelsey’s team begins ACC play against Duke.

The catch is: Brown doesn’t appear to be in a rush to make his college decision. Tipton has said several times the point guard is “likely” waiting until the spring; so a lot can happen between now and then. But Louisville should be feeling good about where it stands with him — I’d venture to say more so than with any other uncommitted top-50 recruit it has offered.

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Reach Louisville men’s basketball reporter Brooks Holton at bholton@gannett.com and follow him on X at @brooksHolton.