Early-Down Success Rate Will Determine if Vanderbilt Can Upset Tennessee

Vanderbilt has an excellent opportunity on Saturday to truly announce they have arrived as a program under Clark Lea.

While the Commodores won five games in 2022, three of those were against Group of 5 and FCS-level schools. Outside of their two wins against Kentucky and Florida, the only other one-score game they competed in against SEC competition was a loss to Missouri.

This year has been different.

Not only has Vanderbilt upset Alabama when they were the No. 1 team in the country, but they also took Missouri to overtime and lost by three points to Texas.

They have competed in this conference for the first time in a while, but the true test for them will be against Tennessee, their in-state rival who has completely owned them during the last five matchups.

Vanderbilt has already locked up their bowl berth, so when it comes to furthering the results for this season, the game doesn’t really matter, but everyone inside and outside of this program knows what it would mean to take down Tennessee, especially with the added motivation of them potentially being able to end their College Football Playoff dreams.

For the Commodores to have a chance, early-down success rate is key.

When they’ve been able to set up short down-and-distance situations, this offense has thrived, but when they haven’t, like during the past two games, they have struggled.

“Vanderbilt’s offensive success is entirely dependent on its early-down running game. If running back Sedrick Alexander and quarterback Diego Pavia can consistently churn out gains of four or five yards, offensive coordinator Tim Beck can dig deep into his bag of tricks … If the Commodores fall into 2nd-and-long and 3rd-and-long situations, however, they become predictable and easy to defend,” explains Henry Oelhafen and Adam Burns of The Vanderbilt Hustler.

It’s not going to be easy for them to accomplish their goal of getting ahead of the chains, though.

Tennessee enters this contest allowing just 2.78 yards per carry and less than 100 for the game, so it’s going to take patience and resilience for Vanderbilt to keep trusting the rushing attack in hopes that it eventually breaks things open.

If they can find some cracks in the armor of the Volunteers in early-down situations so they are in favorable offensive setups, then that will keep the Commodores in a position to pull off another upset.

If not, the misery against Tennessee will likely continue.