South Carolina just outside top 12 in ESPN FPI rankings

South Carolina football coach Shane Beamer has his Gamecocks at 7-3 and ranked in the top 20. Both the AP Poll and the USA Today Coaches Poll dropped on Sunday, USC is No. 19 in each ranking. The College Football Playoff Rankings will be updated on Tuesday, and Carolina will be in the top 20 there, too.

However, the ESPN FPI (Football Power Index) has been higher on the Gamecocks for a while. In fact, the latest FPI update slotted South Carolina just outside of College Football Playoff territory.

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Based on ESPN’s FPI rankings, the Gamecocks are the 13th-best team in college football.

The move to 13th is just a one-spot jump for South Carolina. However, with an upcoming matchup against No. 12 (Clemson) and several top teams having to play each other (Indiana vs. Ohio State, etc.), the small step closer to the top 12 represents hope. Making the College Football Playoff is still a bit of a longshot, but the odds are shortening.

The Gamecocks’ No. 13 ranking stems from a nice combination of efficiency numbers. According to ESPN, strong recent play has bumped USC to No. 46 nationally in offensive efficiency. South Carolina ranks 5th in ESPN’s defensive efficiency metric. Special teams isn’t weighted as heavily, but the Gamecocks are 70th. Because of those numbers, Carolina is 17th in the ESPN FPI overall efficiency.

With the update, the FPI gives the garnet and black a much better chance of a great season. The predictive model now projects a final record of 8.4-3.6. South Carolina has won at least nine games in a season just seven times. They’ve won at least 10 games in just four seasons; those years were 1984, 2011, 2012, and 2013. Reaching both the 9-win and 10-win thresholds are on the table.

Based on ESPN’s percentages, the Gamecocks have a 41.9% chance to win their remaining regular season games. That includes a 99% chance to knock off Wofford and then a 42% chance to beat the rival Clemson Tigers. The outlet also gives Carolina a 10.9% chance to win out AND make the College Football Playoff at 9-3. Even if they don’t make the 12-team field, USC should find themselves in a nice bowl game this winter.

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Because they are an FCS team, the Wofford Terriers are unranked in the FPI. However, the Spartanburg-based squad is 5-6 on the season and 3-5 in SoCon play.

Saturday will be South Carolina’s final home contest of the season, and the Gamecocks and Terriers will kick off at 4:00 p.m. Fans not in attendance will have to stream the game on ESPN+ or SEC Network+.