Oklahoma wildfire forecast predicts ‘above normal’ chances in early 2025: What to know

In addition to annual winter weather concerns, Oklahomans could face another increasing weather risk in the next few months: wildfires.

The National Interagency Fire Center predicts that the western half of Oklahoma, parts of Texas, and eastern New Mexico could experience ‘above-normal’ chances of wildfire in early 2025. 

Though fire activity has been decreasing into November, the agency said in an outlook issued this month, some areas of the US are expected to experience warmer temperatures and lower precipitation, which can contribute to wildfire risk.

The agency also noted that the dramatic swings from dry to wet weather we’ve seen through 2024 will likely continue into 2025. This could make widespread fires less likely, but volatile or dangerous fires could still occur.

“The bottom line is to expect the potential for rapidly changing conditions in the fire environment through the dormant season, especially in areas forecasted to see above-normal significant fire potential,” reads the report.

What is the 2025 wildfire forecast for Oklahoma? 

National Interagency Fire Center predicts that in February, some sections of Oklahoma will see ‘above-normal’ potential for wildfires.

Over early 2025, the area of risk is predicted to expand north from Texas, reaching the majority of the Texas-Oklahoma border by January and then the western half of Oklahoma in February. 

By March 2025, the agency predicts an ‘above normal’ level of wildfires reaching east toward Bartlesville, Stillwater and Tulsa.

Oklahoma drought conditions and wildfire risk

Even though Oklahoma saw over 400% more precipitation than typical in November, which eases drought conditions, the south-central region is forecast to have below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures, according to NOAA. 

Western parts of the state, like the Panhandle and Elk City, are forecast to have a 50% chance of less than normal precipitation from January to March. 

Read more: What is the winter forecast for January to March? See how the state may see warmer temperatures. 

What to do when in danger of a wildfire? 

Ready.gov, a national public service agency designed to prepare people for emergencies, said households should prepare an emergency plan for the chance it could happen. Plans should include having a water source with a hose to reach any property area and an evacuation zone. 

During an emergency, they recommend evacuating once authorities say to do so and the following steps: 

• Use an N95 mask to protect yourself from smoke inhalation. 
• Limit your exposure to smoke by going to a room closed off from outside air and using high-efficiency filters for the ventilation system.