Oklahoma City Thunder 2023 Free Agency Primer

As the NBA offseason continues to move along, the next major milestone on the summer timeline is the start of free agency. On Friday evening at 6 p.m. ET, teams will officially be able to start signing free agents to new contracts. There will be an influx of initial deals reported once the window opens, then more will continue to trickle in over the following months.

The NBA’s most recent projections have the salary cap at roughly $136 million and the luxury tax at around $165 million. For the Oklahoma City Thunder, this means cap space somewhere in the ballpark of $16.5 million following the acquisition of Davis Bertans via trade on draft night. The roster already has 15 players on a full-time NBA contracts, but that shouldn’t affect Oklahoma City’s willingness to explore the free agent market. There will be plenty of levers to pull in order to trim the roster between now and training camp if needed. Isaiah Joe, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Aaron Wiggins, and Lindy Waters III are each on non-guaranteed deals for the upcoming season, which is something to keep an eye on if a roster crunch ends up occurring before the start of the 2023-24 season.

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The Thunder isn’t expected to be a big player during free agency, or during the offseason in general, but it’s still important to evaluate all options.

Outgoing Free Agents

While Oklahoma City could have upwards of four players outgoing as free agents, none are significant.

• Dario Saric
• Lindy Waters III (Team Option)
• Olivier Sarr (Two-Way)
• Jared Butler (Two-Way)

Saric was a late-season acquisition at the trade deadline. While he was certainly a candidate to bring back given his style of play and experience, the draft night trade that brought in Bertans may have only further diminished the chances of Saric coming back to Oklahoma City.

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From there, the Thunder needs to make a decision on Waters’ contract, which has a deadline date of today. As such, we should know more about his future shortly. Even if the team does opt to guarantee his contract for next season, there is still a chance he’s cut at a later date closer to the start of the season.

Finally, Jared Butler and Olivier Sarr played solid minutes down the stretch of the season, but were on two-way deals. While they are set to hit free agency, the loss of these two won’t make a real impact on the Thunder’s ability to move forward.

Potential Targets

Oklahoma City doesn’t have the cap space to sign the top free agents, but that likely wouldn’t be the objective even if money wasn’t an issue. Instead, expect the Thunder to consider players that fit what the team is trying to do and compliment the current core. If there is a net new acquisition made in free agency, it would probably only be one single player given the roster situation.

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With that in mind, there are a few names that would make sense from a basketball standpoint and at the right price.

• Jaxson Hayes (RFA)
• Nickeil Alexander-Walker (RFA)
• Thomas Bryant (UFA)
• Josh Okogie (UFA)
• Moritz Wagner (UFA)
• Shake Milton (UFA)
• Yuta Watanabe (UFA)
• Jalen McDaniels (UFA)

Other Notes

During NBA Summer League next month, players all around the league will be looking to earn a spot on a two-way contract. In the upcoming season, three of those contracts are available to teams. While not all three have to be filled immediately, keep an eye on summer league as a showcase for potential options. Thunder rookie Keyontae Johnson is already filling one of those spots after being drafted No. 50 overall last week. For the other two slots, it could be members of the Thunder’s summer league roster, or even from another team’s squad. Furthermore, both Olivier Sarr and Jared Butler, who were on two-way deals in OKC at the end of last season, could be in consideration.

Another situation to keep an eye on as we hit free agency is the potential of an Aleksej Pokusevski extension. Entering his fourth season, the former first-round pick has been injured of late but is absolutely worth keeping around for the right price. If an extension isn’t agreed to before the start of the season that doesn’t mean he’s not part of the Thunder’s long-term plans, but bringing him back on a new deal will only become more complex as time goes on. According to ProFitX, Pokusevski’s production value projects him to be worth just over $13 million next season.

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In short, don’t expect the Thunder to make a big splash during free agency. This is a roster that’s already full of talent, but needs another year of action to truly evaluate what the team needs to make that next step into being a consistent playoff threat.