College Football Odds, Picks & Predictions for Texas vs. Oklahoma State (Saturday, Oct. 22)

Texas vs. Oklahoma State Odds

There can be no scarcity of drama when two Massive 12 model names collide in a knockout spherical Saturday afternoon.

Each Texas and Oklahoma State have a single loss within the convention standings with TCU and Kansas State undefeated within the pole place.

A loss by the Longhorns or Cowboys won’t solely ship the groups to 2 losses within the Massive 12 standings but additionally complicate any tiebreaker situations that play out via the rest of the season.

The Longhorns nonetheless have each the Horned Frogs and Wildcats in entrance of them, signifying a Massive 12 Championship berth could run via Austin when TCU visits on Nov. 12.

Steve Sarkisian’s staff receives a bye week after the Pokes, however an in depth name towards Iowa State final week has set a distinct mentality within the Longhorns’ locker room.

Mike Gundy doesn’t need to discuss accidents. As heard on the New BCS episode of the Massive Bets on Campus podcast, the grizzled head coach will hold practice time and injury status throughout the program.

Whereas Motion Community’s personal Brett McMurphy stated the Cowboys quarterback didn’t even ice after final week’s sport, the purpose unfold took massive wagers on Texas all through Sunday.

An opener of Texas -1 at Circa Sports activities flew to Texas -4 inside three minutes, as one other wave of Monday morning cash stabilized the Cowboys as 6.5-point underdogs.

Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers returned from harm in Week 6 towards Oklahoma, blistering the Sooners for 4 touchdowns and practically 300 yards passing.

The freshman had a more durable process dealing with the 3-3-5 stack scheme from Iowa State however added one other three passing touchdowns.

Ewers is taking part in quarterback over Hudson Card due to a better big-time throw ceiling, however with these performs comes the chance of turnover. Ewers has logged three turnover-worthy performs since getting back from harm and likewise recorded a fumble towards the Cyclones.

Alternatives will exist for the Cowboys to pressure Ewers into turnovers, however weapons on the talent positions are thriving.

Bijan Robinson has 10 speeding touchdowns on the season, averaging 4.2 yards after contact. Solely Auburn’s Tank Bigsby has a better elusiveness score, which is outlined by the impression of the ballcarrier impartial of blocking.

Robinson can also be the second highest-graded operating again in receiving grades, trailing solely Georgia’s Kenny McIntosh.

However is Texas again? The protection has made the case that the Longhorns are certainly a participant on the nationwide stage.

Defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski has accomplished a 180 along with his unit after spending the 2021 season within the FBS cellar in loads of superior statistical classes.

The Longhorns have been particularly stout towards passing assaults, producing a top-30 rank in cross rush and protection. The most important enchancment is available in Ending Drives, permitting simply 3.1 factors on 27 opponent scoring makes an attempt.

A market quantity near a landing signifies Sanders won’t play Saturday. Whereas the data won’t be confirmed till kickoff, traders shortly hit early limits to get the most effective of the quantity in case beginning duties fall to Gunnar Gundy.

Even Sarkisian is taking a look at each single piece of movie doable in diagnosing the standing of Sanders, together with the fifth-year quarterback’s post-game physique motion.

Gundy’s pattern dimension is proscribed, as 23 dropbacks towards Arkansas-Pine Bluff resulted in two touchdowns with no big-time throws or turnover-worthy performs.

The coach’s son confirmed a capability to scoot, producing 46 yards speeding on 4 makes an attempt with a good distribution between designed runs and scrambles.

With minimal knowledge accessible on Gundy, oddsmakers are making Sanders’ absence a six-point adjustment to the unfold.

There was a drop-off on the defensive facet of the ball after shedding quite a few key contributors and a coordinator from final season.

New coordinator Derek Mason and the 4-2-5 scheme stay a top-20 staff in Defensive Havoc, producing a top-20 cross rush and terrorizing backfields because the fifth-best staff in tackles for loss.

The Longhorns’ offensive line can be tasked with containing Collin Oliver and Hint Ford on the edge positions, as each rank within the prime 125 individually in cross rush productiveness.

The Pokes are sixth in Defensive Stuff Price, one of many extra vital metrics towards a steady of Texas operating backs that produce within the trench.

Texas vs. Oklahoma State Matchup Evaluation

Toggle the dropdowns beneath to cover or present how Texas and Oklahoma State match up statistically:

Knowledge through CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Professional Soccer Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Texas vs. Oklahoma State Betting Decide

Motion Community initiatives Texas as a one-point favourite contemplating full well being on either side of the ball. This quantity is predicted to see minimal climb with out Sanders and loads of Oklahoma State buy-back if the starter is taking part in drills round 2 p.m. ET at Boone Pickens Stadium.

There’s worth in backing Gundy at quarterback on an inflated unfold of seven.5 or higher, simply as worth exists on Oklahoma State to +3.5 with Sanders because the starter.

The entire is behaving similarly, as an opener of 68 has decreased a full landing as of writing. Each key numbers of 65 and 62 have been crossed, as the entire approaches the second-biggest key of all numbers at 59.

With the entire dropping from Sanders rumors, there could also be worth on a Texas staff whole contemplating the Longhorns offense gained’t face Sanders himself.

The Oklahoma State protection ranks seventieth in permitting explosive performs, however the Longhorns’ benefit in early downs ought to present prolonged drives. Texas has the 14th-highest charge of ordinary downs due to a Success Price rank of seventh.

Ewers and Robinson will look to bounce outdoors of the tackles or go over heart to keep away from the Pokes’ chaos creators lined up on the edge place. The 2 most profitable speeding instructions for Robinson have been outdoors the correct edge and immediately over heart, producing 5 runs of 10 yards or extra in each instructions.

Texas doesn’t have the speed-racer tempo that Oklahoma State performs with, however the Pokes’ 21 seconds per play will imply additional possessions for the Horns.

Poor second-level fundamentals from the Cowboys can be an element when Ewers connects with Robinson and huge receiver Xavier Worthy, as Oklahoma State ranks seventieth in deal with grading.

Due to a whole mismatch in Ending Drives, the Horns will rating extra touchdowns than subject targets. The Cowboys are permitting 4.1 factors when opponents cross the 40-yard line, so search for Texas to exceed its staff whole with Sanders’ standing unsure.

Decide: Texas Workforce Whole Over 32.5