Oklahoma
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Oklahoma Sooners Opening Football Odds: Cover or Not?
Gambling can be a shady profession. Everyone is looking for an angle. If a person has inside information into the physical condition of a key player, say a certain quarterback, it is a big advantage. That said, my sources say that Alabama QB Jalen Milroe is in excellent shape. That sort of news gives the Crimson Tide a better chance at success.
Sportsbook FanDuel has come out with their line on Alabama-Oklahoma and graced the Tide with a 14.5 point advantage. The Over/Under is set at 49.5.
Hopefully, you got in on the preseason number of Bama favored by two points for this game in Norman. The Sooners were not expected to win the SEC, but then again not many prognosticators had OU pegged at 5-5 coming into this game. The win total for Oklahoma this summer was set at 8.5. Those lucky enough to take the under have already profited.
Not only are the Sooners 5-5 overall, they are also 5-5 against the spread and in the Over/Under.
OKLAHOMA
| Date | Opp | Close | Result | ATS/OU |
| Aug 30 | Temple | -42.5 / 57.5 | Won 51-3 | Won / Under |
| Sep 7 | Houston | -27.5 / 49.5 | Won 16-12 | Lost / Under |
| Sep 14 | Tulane | -12.5 / 49.5 | Won 34-19 | Won / Over |
| Sep 21 | Tennessee | +5.5 / 56.5 | Lost 15-25 | Lost / Under |
| Sep 28 | @Auburn | +1 / 43.5 | Won 27-21 | Won / Over |
| Oct 12 | Texas | +17 / 49 | Lost 3-34 | Lost / Under |
| Oct 19 | South Carolina | +1 / 40.5 | Lost 9-35 | Lost / Over |
| Oct 26 | @Ole Miss | +19 / 49.5 | Lost 14-26 | Won / Under |
| Nov 2 | Maine | -37.5 / 48.5 | Won 59-14 | Won / Over |
| Nov 9 | @Missouri | -3.5 / 42.5 | Lost 23-30 | Lost / Over |
The Sooners are 1-5 in the SEC with the one win coming against Auburn at home. Okie lost their other two SEC home games to Ole Miss by 12 and against a Brady Cook-less Mizzou by 7. Is the Tide a field goal better than OM? Can Milroe generate 8 more points than Drew Pyne?
If night games factor into your betting, Oklahoma won their first two of the season against Temple (51-3) and Houston (16-12). In Week 4, they fell to Tennessee under the lights in Norman 25-15.
The Sooners have lost four straight SEC games with a win over Maine mixed in, while playing musical chairs with their quarterbacks.
ALABAMA
| Date | Opp | Close | Result | ATS/OU |
| Aug 31 | Western Kentucky | -34 / 59.5 | Won 63-0 | Won / Over |
| Sep 7 | South Florida | -30.5 / 64.5 | Won 42-16 | Lost / Under |
| Sep 14 | @Wisconsin | -14.5 / 47.5 | Won 42-10 | Won / Over |
| Sep 28 | Georgia | +2 / 50 | Won 41-34 | Won / Over |
| Oct 5 | @Vanderbilt | -22.5 / 53.5 | Lost 35-40 | Lost / Over |
| Oct 12 | South Carolina | -21.5 / 50.5 | Won 27-25 | Lost / Over |
| Oct 19 | @Tennessee | -3.5 / 57.5 | Lost 17-24 | Lost / Under |
| Oct 26 | Missouri | -16 / 51 | Won 34-0 | Won / Under |
| Nov 9 | @LSU | -3 / 59.5 | Won 42-13 | Won / Under |
| Nov 16 | Mercer | -42.5 / 58.5 | Won 52-7 | Won / Over |
The Crimson Tide is 8-2 and 4-2 in conference play. They have won three straight and covered the spread each time. A healthy Milroe is a good Milroe. But it’s the defense that has really stepped up. Alabama has given up 20 points in those three games with one of the touchdowns being a garbage score against the Tide reserves. It would seem Bama is getting back to Joyless Murderball.
Bama is 2-2 on the road and 4-0 in night games. Weather is not expected to be a factor.
MATH
With an over/under of 49.5 and 14.5 point spread, the final score could look something like BAMA 32, OK 17. Would you be willing to bet on this game?
Poll
Bama -14.5:
-
45%
Alabama wins by 16 or more. Take Bama -14.5
(15 votes)
-
27%
14 sounds about right.
(9 votes)
-
27%
It will be closer than a 14 point spread. Take Okie +14.5
(9 votes)
33 votes total
Vote Now
[Erik Evans will have his thoughts on these numbers later in the week.]