Why NC Democrats think 2026 midterms will run through Rocky Mount

North Carolina Democrats’ hopes of weakening Republicans’ legislative power are resting on the shoulders of a Rocky Mount preacher.

James Gailliard, a former legislator who was unseated in 2022, is mounting a political comeback that — if successful — could weaken GOP lawmakers’ political power and force them to negotiate more with Democrats.

On Thursday, he launched his campaign for the state Senate seat held by Republican incumbent Sen. Lisa Stone Barnes — setting the stage for a multimillion-dollar tussle over what is expected to be one of the closest legislative races in 2026.

There are 50 state Senate seats on the ballot in 2026. But fewer than half a dozen will be competitive, and there’s no doubt among political insiders — on both sides of the aisle — that Barnes’ district, which covers Nash, Franklin and Vance counties northeast of Raleigh, could become the marquee race.

It’s a historically Democratic area, and registered Democrats make up the biggest voting bloc in the district. But in the past decade, the area has tilted right as locals embraced Republican President Donald Trump and other conservatives.

The upcoming race for the seat represents Democrats’ best chance to break Republicans’ veto-proof majority in the state Senate. Doing so would give Democratic lawmakers, and Democratic Gov. Josh Stein, more leverage over the state budget and other bills in the coming years.

Stein’s veto already holds some weight because Democrats in 2024 broke the GOP supermajority in the state House. But that hinges on a single vote. Breaking the supermajority in the Senate would strengthen Democrats’ position.

The largest and most politically competitive part of Barnes’ three-county district is Nash County, a tobacco farming community just east of Raleigh. Gailliard represented Nash County previously in the state House of Representatives. And for years he has led Word Tabernacle Church, one of the largest historically Black churches in the area.

But he’s been out of politics since losing a 2022 reelection bid. Gailliard said in an interview with WRAL he plans to focus his 2026 campaign on economic inequality, staying away from other political fights. One reason Republicans have made inroads here and in other rural areas is the defection of socially conservative Democrats to the GOP.

“A message that works in Durham is not going to work in rural eastern North Carolina, right?” Gailliard said. “We have to have a nuanced message — a message that makes sense for all voters.”

Gailliard might still need to win a party primary to make it to the general election in 2026, but there’s no doubt he’s who the Democratic establishment wants to reverse this rural area’s rightward trend. Crowding into Gailliard’s home for Thursday’s kickoff among the hundred-plus guests were top staffers for the N.C. Democratic Party, state Senate minority leader Sydney Batch and Democratic state Supreme Court Justice Anita Earls.

While Democrats are eager to see Gailliard run, Republicans also say they’d welcome him as an opponent.

Barnes, through a campaign aide, declined to comment. Other conservative insiders say that Gailliard’s past stances during his previous time in office — including on some divisive social issues — would provide enough ammunition to campaign against.

“He’s got a voting record he’s going to have to run on,” said Dylan Watts, who runs the Republican Party’s state Senate political operations and spoke on Barnes’ behalf.

‘People trust them’

Gailliard was unseated from his state House district in 2022 by Republican challenger Allen Chesser. Gailliard had won the previous two elections, but the 2022 midterms favored Republicans, holding true to a trend in U.S. politics: Whichever party holds the White House usually does poorly in the midterms. For that same reason, the 2026 midterms are expected to favor Democrats.

“The general principle is midterms are bad for the president’s party,” said Michael Bitzer, a political scientist at Catawba College. “Especially if they also control Congress.”

Watts, the Republican operative, said Democrats are correct to identify Barnes’ district as one of the state’s most competitive seats, along with the Wilmington district held by Senate Majority Leader Michael Lee — a Republican whom Democrats have repeatedly tried unseating in recent years. They’ve succeeded only once, in 2018, which was the last midterm that favored Democrats.

Watts expressed confidence in Lee and Barnes, even in a potentially tough year for Republicans. “They’re known commodities,” he said. “People trust them.”

Gailliard agrees Republican lawmakers are known, but he says they’re known for serving the interests of the wealthy, not everyday people. He declared at his campaign kickoff that the 2026 race will present local voters with a clear choice — one that could potentially affect the entire state.

“Do we continue moving in the trajectory that we’re moving in, where only a small, isolated group of people really get to benefit from it?” he said.

Barnes’ family runs a massive farming operation throughout multiple eastern North Carolina counties that’s one of the world’s largest sweet potato producers, in addition to growing other crops. It was taken over by a foreign bank last year after defaulting on $40 million in loans.

Barnes previously told WRAL the bank was acting too aggressively in a lawsuit over the debt, trying to leverage her political career into its efforts to pressure her family into a more favorable settlement.

“Like many farmers, our family has faced tough times as the agricultural industry endures unprecedented challenges,” she told WRAL in January. “… While this is a personal matter, it does not impact my commitment to serving in the North Carolina Senate with the same strength and dedication that define our family and our work.”

The ‘No. 1’ target for Democrats

Even in what is expected to be a Democratic-leaning midterm year, it remains unclear if Gailliard or any other challenger can get enough of a boost to flip Barnes’ Senate seat. Election results show its shift to the right.

Hillary Clinton won the district in 2016 with 49.3% of the vote, the last time a national Democrat would carry local voters. Trump won it in 2020 with 49.8%, then again in 2024 with 51.8%. And in 2022 Republican Ted Budd defeated Democrat Cheri Beasley for U.S. Senate by 6 percentage points among voters in that district.

In the 2026 midterms, it’s still not known who either party will run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Republican Sen. Thom Tillis. Bitzer said both parties will be looking for candidates who can not only win but can also boost turnout in lower-profile races, like for seats in the General Assembly.

Watts said that even if 2026 turns into a better-than-normal year for Democrats, there are still some competitive seats Democrats hold that Republicans might make a play for — including the district next door to Barnes’ seat. That seat, which represents Granville County and the northern Wake County suburbs, is held by Sen. Terence Everitt, D-Wake, who won by only 128 votes in 2024.

As for Barnes, Watts noted she held on to win by several points in 2024 even after her Democratic challenger James Mercer, a retired Army officer, was able to put together a $3 million campaign effort — about $700,000 more than Barnes, campaign finance records show.

“They swamped us,” Watts said. “They outspent us. But we still won.”

On Thursday Batch, the top Senate Democrat, told Gailliard’s supporters this district will again be a top priority for the party and its donors.

“This is the No. 1 competitive, pick-up Senate seat that we have in the legislature, so that we can break the supermajority,” she said. “[Gailliard’s] race is going to cost us $3 million. … And what I will tell you all is democracy has never been free. Not for women, and certainly not for people of color.”

Women and minorities are key Democratic Party constituencies, and getting them to the polls will be a top priority for Gailliard. The district as a whole is one of the most racially diverse in the state: 38% of residents are Black and 15% are Hispanic. And in North Carolina, politics remain heavily divided along racial lines. White voters tend to support Republicans and non-white voters tend to favor Democrats.

Gailliard said one problem he’ll face — but one he thinks is fixable — is that in 2024, the majority of potential voters in this district never cast a ballot.

Democrats need to be able to reach those people and convince them they can deliver real change if given the chance, he said, even if it takes traveling to small-town barber shops and coffee shops to meet just a few people at a time.

He sees the winning message as one “that helps people recognize, ‘Hey, I’m in a rural community, and I’m a farmer, but he’s speaking my language.’ Or the person who’s saying, ‘Look, I’m the single mom. I’m working two jobs. I’m trying to get across the finish line, and my child’s school is tanking, and nobody’s really talking that language to me.’”