Redistricting redux: GOP sees North Carolina pickups while Democrats eye New York

NEW YORK — If imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, Democrats’ plans to redraw House maps in some states show great respect and reverence for Republican redistricting tactics.

Redistricting is usually a once-a-decade process, completed after each census in years ending with zero. But with both parties trying to get an edge in what’s become a political knife fight for a narrowly divided House, new maps for the 2024 election cycle could make the difference in who holds the speaker’s gavel in the next Congress.

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The House effectively split 222-213 in Republicans’ favor, with soon-to-be-filled vacancies in a safely blue Rhode Island seat and a red one in Utah. This is why new rounds of redistricting are so important for both sides, though it’s a process that will have to move relatively quickly, with some primaries scheduled for less than a year away. After all, candidates — incumbents, challengers, and open-seat contenders — need to know which districts to run in.

Republican pickup opportunities

For Republicans, North Carolina is the biggest redistricting prize. The Tar Heel State gained a House seat after the 2020 census due to its fast population growth in the prior decade. North Carolina’s 14 House seats are divided evenly, 7-7 — for now.

That’s a reflection of the state’s diverse political complexion. North Carolina has voted for the Republican candidate in all but one presidential election since 1980; the one exception was in 2008 when a plurality of North Carolinians voted for Barack Obama. However, Democrats have held the governor’s office here for all but four years this century. And some of North Carolina’s fastest-growing areas are among the most Democratic-leaning. While rural areas have gone redder, cities and suburbs, growing much more quickly, particularly with professional-class workers in the Raleigh-Durham Research Triangle, are becoming bluer.

Still, Republicans dominate North Carolina’s legislature, with veto-proof majorities against Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC). And state lawmakers are itching to redraw North Carolina’s maps for its House delegation. With backing from a state Supreme Court that now has five justices elected as Republicans to two Democrats, GOP state lawmakers pretty much have a free hand.

Depending on how aggressive state Republican lawmakers want to be in congressional redistricting, the maps could end up 12-2 in their party’s favor. Yet that would involve putting at risk several House Republican incumbents, who would see their conservative voting bases diluted. More likely, North Carolina’s House delegation will end up 11-3 in Republicans’ favor, or perhaps even 10-4, if that party plays it “safe.”

Whatever the change, several House Democrats from North Carolina could see their seats at risk, including Rep. Deborah Ross in the Raleigh and northern and western suburbs 2nd Congressional District, Rep. Kathy Manning in the Greensboro-area 6th District, Rep. Wiley Nickel in the southern Raleigh suburbs 13th District, and Rep. Jeff Jackson in the southern Charlotte and western suburbs 13th District.

State Republicans in Ohio may also try to redraw House maps in their party’s favor, though it won’t be as easy. The Buckeye State lost a House seat after the 2020 census due to slow population growth. Its current 15-member House delegation has 11 Republicans to four Democrats in a state that was long a political bellwether but now leans GOP. Former President Donald Trump in 2020 beat President Joe Biden in Ohio 53.27% to 45.24%, about the same margin of victory as four years prior against Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

Still, there’s only so far state Republicans can stretch the lines in an effort to create more GOP seats without endangering their own incumbents. They found out the hard way in 2022 when two House Democrats won competitive races — Rep. Marcy Kaptur in the Toledo and northwestern Ohio 9th District and Rep. Emilia Sykes in the Akron and Canton areas 13th District. Republicans may opt for caution in rejiggering House district lines rather than putting their own incumbents at risk.

House Democrats’ New York state of mind on redistricting

For House Democrats, the big redistricting prize is New York, a deep blue bastion where Biden crushed Queens native Trump 60.87% to 37.74% but where Democrats have a relatively narrow 15-11 edge over Republicans in House seats due to quirks and some bad breaks for the party ahead of the 2022 elections.

New York, too, lost a House seat after the 2020 census. State Democrats in Albany, with wide majorities, tried to divvy up the Empire State’s House districts 22-4 in their party’s favor. But a state court threw out the map, and the version that went into effect was much more favorable to Republicans.

Now, litigation in New York is already moving through the courts and could eventually restart the redistricting process in the coming months. Helping Democrats’ chance is the placement by Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) of a more liberal justice who heads New York’s highest state court. In opening arguments recently, Democrats urged the new court to start the process over and let the state’s redistricting commission craft a new one.

If Democrats got their way in court due to the redistricting litigation, several House Republicans could be endangered. Starting with fabulist freshman Rep. George Santos in the northern Nassau County 3rd District, the congressman from Long Island faces a House Ethics Committee investigation over lies about his background, including education and work experience. Santos is a persistent target of House Democratic expulsion efforts. Several candidates are running in both the Republican primary and for the Democratic nomination.

Further House Democratic redistricting targets include GOP Reps. Anthony D’Esposito in the southern Nassau County 4th District and Mike Lawler in the Lower Hudson Valley, among others, though the extent of GOP House vulnerabilities won’t be known until, and if, new congressional maps are enacted.

Wisconsin also presents an opportunity for Democrats in redistricting. Republicans hold a 6-2 House delegation edge in the highly competitive Badger State, but liberals won a majority on the state Supreme Court last spring, and Janet Protasiewicz, an incoming justice, tips the balance in their favor to redraw the maps. Democrats see the appeal to the courts as their best chance of dislodging GOP majorities at both the state and federal levels.

Perhaps the biggest redistricting surprises for Democrats came from an institution now reviled by many liberals: the U.S. Supreme Court. With its 6-3 conservative majority, Democrats have made villains out of Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito over travel expenses paid for by outside interests while blasting the jurisprudence of all six justices appointed by Republican presidents.

Yet the high court of late has twice ruled in Democrats’ favor on political map drawing. The Supreme Court on June 26 dismissed Louisiana’s bid to prevent the state’s voting map from being redrawn over allegations that it unlawfully diluted the power of black voters.

The justices issued a brief unsigned order that was expected after the ruling on June 8 that relied on the landmark Voting Rights Act in a similar case regarding redistricting in Alabama.

The court order stated that the case should be resolved in lower courts “in advance of the 2024 congressional elections in Louisiana.”

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In the Alabama case, the justices upheld a lower court ruling that said the Republican-drawn map in that state discriminated against black voters by making it harder for them to vote for candidates of their liking.

The political bottom line is that Democrats could gain two House seats in Alabama and Louisiana, though much still depends on who ends up drawing the maps, and two Democratic House pickups aren’t guaranteed.